KYRGYZ PRESS BUZZING ABOUT REPORTED DEAL TO CLOSE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000056 SIPDIS ASHGABAT: PLEASE PASS TO GEN. PETRAEUS' PARTY E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KPAO MARR MOPS RS KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZ PRESS BUZZING ABOUT REPORTED DEAL TO CLOSE MANAS REF: BISHKEK 47 BISHKEK 00000056 001.2 OF 002 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On January 12, the Russian newspaper "Vremja Novostei" published an article entitled "(Kyrgyz President) Bakiyev is Bringing an Expensive Present to Moscow." The article said that President Bakiyev and the Russian government had worked out a deal in which Bakiyev would close Manas Air Base in exchange for $2 billion in loans from Russia. Today, January 15, the Kyrgyz media, including official state media, began speculating on the reported deal. The state information agency argued in favor of the deal, while the Kyrgyzstan edition of "Komsomolskaya Pravda" cautioned that the money could be embezzled by corrupt officials. Other commentators speculated on possible U.S. retribution. End Summary. State Information Agency: Bakiyev in Moscow on January 20 -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On January 15, Kabar, the Kyrgyz State Information Agency, collaborated with the Russian Information Agency RIA Novosti on an article entitled, "The Passions Around the American Base." Kabar quoted RIA Novosti as reporting that President Bakiyev will travel to Moscow on January 20 to discuss the Russian aid offer. RIA Novosti cited President Bakiyev as saying that $300 million of the proffered aid will go to support the Kyrgyz budget and that $1.7 billion will go toward construction of hydroelectric power stations. State Information Agencies Argue to Close the Base -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The Kabar article says that the deal with Moscow, which it cites as a "memorandum to be signed by both sides in Moscow," is "the only wayQor the (Kyrgyz Republic) to get out of the (current economic and energy crisis)." The article editorializes that "although many gung-ho Kyrgyz patriots these days never tire of saying that accepting such a big loan will make the (Kyrgyz) Republic too dependent on Moscow, the 'pro's' of the memorandum are obvious." As arguments in favor of Base closure, the article cites military experts who say that the problems in Afghanistan cannot be solved through military intervention. President Bakiyev also told RIA Novosti, "In the seven years that the anti-terrorist coalition has been in Afghanistan, the production of narcotics in that country has only increased." The article also claims that the presence of the U.S. military base in Kyrgyzstan violates SCO and CSTO agreements. "Manas is Again the Subject of Big Bargaining" -------------- - ¶4. (SBU) On January 15, the Kyrgyzstan edition of Moscow-based "Komsomolskaya Pravda" ran an article entitled "Manas is Again the Subject of Big Bargaining." The article says that the Kyrgyz government must choose between Russia and America and that "the scales are tipping toward Russia" because of President Putin's reputed promise of $2 billion. The article cautions, "Kyrgyzstan is like a black hole where not just the Russian $2 billion loan, but the whole U.S. Federal Reserve System, may disappear. And Bakiyev most likely knows that he could find 30 percent of the money missing - gone into the hands of our grabber-officials." The article says President Bakiyev is inclined to make a deal with Moscow because "Moscow will never reproach (Bakiyev) for authoritarianism, concentration of power in his own hands, unfair elections, flourishing corruption, and, probably, the next unconstitutional term." Komsomolskaya Pravda: "Obama Has Already Armed his Colt" -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The article compares the relative bargaining power of Russia and America, concluding that America is in a worse position: "They have no chance to gain (control of) water and energy resources and the air base. They can just BISHKEK 00000056 002.2 OF 002 nostalgically look back on the 'Island of Democracy' they invested so much in. Unless the Yankees don't give up. Perhaps they will call back Ambassador Stephen Young, who was the one who ousted (Former President) Akayev." ¶6. (SBU) The article says that President-Elect Obama needs to win the war in Afghanistan and "has already armed his Colt." The article claims, "For the sake of (victory in Afghanistan),the Pentagon is even preparing for a massive withdrawal of troops from Iraq, and is even prepared to delay deployment of the Missile Defense System in Europe. The most important thing now for the new president of America is to achieve unconditional success in the war against the Taliban, and everyone understands this makes the role of the Manas Air Base very important. President-Elect Obama needs a victory from far across the Atlantic to prove to his people that he is capable of returning the U.S. to authority and respect. And whom do we respect? Those that we fear." ¶7. (SBU) The "Komsomolskaya Pravda" article praises Bakiyev for playing a "bad-looking but wise" game to find out how much money Russia and America have stashed away "just in case of problems in Kyrgyzstan." It concludes, "If America doesn't crush under its mortgage and financial crisis, it will be able to afford the next increase in payments for the Base." Internet Forum Rants Against Base -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The vast majority of commentators on the popular local forum, Diesel, support the deal to close Manas Air Base. A common sentiment is that Americans have never done anything for Kyrgyzstan, but Kyrgyzstan is "historically and culturally close" to Russia. A few readers caution against doubling the national debt when corrupt Kyrgyz officials will likely steal the money. Diesel reprinted an online article speculating that the United States would take revenge if the base were closed. The article cites local expert and Kyrgyz-Russian Slavonic University Professor Alexander Knyazev, as saying, "I think that one of the (Americans') countermeasures could be an infusion of resources into the Kyrgyz opposition to destabilize the internal political situation, including attempts to change the political regime through already well-known scenarios." GFOELLER