Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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09BISHKEK494 | 2009-05-22 03:20:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Bishkek |
VZCZCXRO0511 OO RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHNEH RUEHPW DE RUEHEK #0494/01 1420320 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 220320Z MAY 09 FM AMEMBASSY BISHKEK TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2215 INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 3084 RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 1380 RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 3427 RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2813 RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO BRUSSELS BE RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL |
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000494 |
1. (C) Summary: Former Kyrgyz Deputy Prime Minister Elmira Ibraimova, who had earlier harbored Presidential ambitions (Ref B), told the Embassy that she was now looking to leave Kyrgyzstan for a period, possibly to work for an international organization. She said that opposition candidates Almaz Atambayev and Temir Sariyev were in the race in order to "legitimize" President Bakiyev's victory in the July 23 Presidential election, and she claimed both were in negotiations with the Kyrgyz White House to cut deals for themselves. Ibraimova believed that Bakiyev and his circle were vulnerable in the long-run due to divisions within the First Family itself and because of their excessive greed. End Summary. Kicked out of Ak Jol -------------------------- 2. (C) Despite her meetings with opposition figures and her own ambitions to challenge President Bakiyev (see Refs B-E), Elmira Ibraimova had formally remained the deputy chair of Bakiyev's Ak Jol Party. In late April, Ibraimova publicly appealed to Ak Jol members to "consider the situation in the country" before deciding whom to nominate for President. Not surprisingly, the Ak Jol Party Political Council quickly kicked her out of the Party. Ibraimova told the Embassy that President Bakiyev's Chief of Staff, Daniyar Usenov, orchestrated the entire dismissal, but claimed that some Ak Jol members had been supportive of her. (Note: On May 1, the Ak Jol Party nominated Bakiyev to stand for re-election. End Note.) Critical of Opposition -------------------------- 3. (C) Ibraimova said that money determined the selection of former Prime Minister Almaz Atambayev as the "unified" candidate of the United People's Movement (UPM). She said Atambayev could bring more money to the campaign than rival Temir Sariyev, and that other factors, such as name recognition or regional appeal, played no role in the selection. (Note: Sariyev later broke from the UPM and decided to run as the nominee of his Ak Shumkar Party. End Note.) However, Ibraimova claimed, neither Atambayev nor Sariyev had any expectation of winning, and both were now trying to cut deals with the Kyrgyz White House. She said their role in the campaign was only to "legitimize" Bakiyev's victory in the July 23 poll. Kazakh Backing for Sadyrkulov? -------------------------- 4. (C) Ibraimova provided further details on former Chief of Staff Medet Sadyrkulov's plans to oust Bakiyev (ref E). (Note: Sadyrkulov was killed in a suspicious car accident on March 13 after reportedly meeting with contacts in Almaty. End Note.) Ibraimova told us that Kazakh businessman Alexander Maskeyevich had agreed to bankroll Sadyrkulov, and she claimed that Maskeyevich had done so with the blessing of President Nazarbayev. She said she had a meeting scheduled with Maskeyevich in early May, but the meeting had fallen through. Warnings about Sadyrkulov -------------------------- BISHKEK 00000494 002.2 OF 002 5. (C) Ibraimova said that in summer 2008 she had been warned by members of the Bakiyev family to distance herself from Sadyrkulov. She said that as Deputy Prime Minister she had met twice with Bakiyev's brother Janysh, the head of the Presidential Security Service, who had tried to get her to move away from Sadyrkulov. Around the same time, Bakiyev's son Marat, the Deputy Chair of the State Committee on National Security, had told her that Sadyrkulov would be "out of the picture or dead" by the end of the year. A Third Force? -------------------------- 6. (C) By early May, following her expulsion from the Ak Jol Party and distancing herself from the opposition (Ref B), Ibraimova had become fairly disillusioned with the government and the opposition. She told us at the time that she wanted to focus on building "political discussion groups" and create a "third force" of "professionals, young politicians, and ex-politicians" to provide fresh blood to Kyrgyz society which "does not believe in the government or the opposition." Out of Kyrgyzstan -------------------------- 7. (C) However, earlier this week, Ibraimova told an Amcit Embassy employee that she now wants to leave Kyrgyzstan for a period, possibly to work with an international organization such as the World Bank. (Note: Ibraimova had previously headed the World Bank-funded ARIS community development program in Kyrgyzstan. End Note.) Ibraimova said she would like to return to politics at some point in the future, and she believes that the Bakiyev group will not last long in power, mainly due to divisions within the First Family. As she has on previous occasions, she characterized Bakiyev and his circle as driven entirely by greed and self-interest, with little regard for developing the country. Comment -------------------------- 8. (C) While Ibraimova still has contacts in both the government and opposition camps, she apparently now realizes that she lacks the necessary support and funding to challenge Bakiyev under current conditions. Ibraimova may have been "used" as a front for Sadyrkulov's ambitions, as former Foreign Minister and current Presidential Advisor Muratbek Imanaliyev told the Ambassador (Ref A), but in our previous interactions with her when she was Deputy Prime Minister we found her to be constructive, generally helpful, and talented. If circumstances change, she may again be able to play a role in politics and government. GFOELLER |