MANAS: AMBASSADOR DELIVERS ENVIRONMENTAL POINTS;

S E C R E T BISHKEK 000443 DEPT FOR SCA - PDAS MOON AND DAS KROL E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR MOPS KG SUBJECT: MANAS: AMBASSADOR DELIVERS ENVIRONMENTAL POINTS; SARBAYEV SUGGESTS BAKIYEV NEEDS PUSH REF: A. KROL-GFOELLER 5/5/09 E-MAIL ¶B. BISHKEK 429 ¶C. STATE 43050 ¶D. BISHKEK 427 ¶E. BISHKEK 378 ¶F. BISHKEK 349 Classified By: Ambassador Tatiana C. Gfoeller, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S) Summary. The Ambassador met with Foreign Minister Sarbayev at her residence the afternoon of May 7. The Ambassador conveyed additional points on environmental issues in response to questions raised by Sarbayev on May 4 (Ref B), and she urged him to sign the agreements as soon as possible. Sarbayev said he was ready to sign, but was still putting together "strong arguments" to convince President Bakiyev to go forward. Sarbayev said he hoped to meet with President Bakiyev on May 8. End Summary. ¶2. (S) The Ambassador sought a meeting with Foreign Minister Kadyrbek Sarbayev on May 7 in order to respond to questions on environmental issues raised by Sarbayev during their May 4 meeting (Ref B). They met at the Ambassador's residence, as Sarbayev does not want to discuss Manas-related issues at the Foreign Ministry. ¶3. (S) The Ambassador delivered Ref A points to Sarbayev. Among the points made, the Ambassador noted that the transit center agreement would establish a Joint U.S.-Kyrgyz Environmental Survey Team "to examine environmental issues and make recommendations in the future." She pointed out that Article 10 of the framework agreement contains a mutual waiver of most sovereign claims, which is customary under international law in connection with activities agreed upon by the two sovereigns. The Ambassador noted that Article 10 also provided for settlement of meritorious claims of third parties, and this could include damage to land. The Ambassador said that the U.S. Government does not agree in advance to pay compensation for damages which may or may not occur. However, the Congress set aside money for paying claims worldwide, and our commitment to pay meritorious claims is thus real. Finally, she stated that the United States remains open to expanded cooperation with Kyrgyzstan on environmental matters, and our governments could explore additional ways to cooperate on environmental matters, based on the performance of the Joint Survey team. ¶4. (S) Sarbayev listened carefully to the points, and he asked for a written copy of them, which the Ambassador provided. Sarbayev said that while the points did not represent "new" information, he would use them with President Bakiyev. Sarbayev said he hoped to meet with Bakiyev on May ¶8. He repeated that "in principle" he was ready to sign the agreements, but he needed to get final approval from Bakiyev. ¶5. (S) Sarbayev emphasized that both he and Defense Minister Kalyev continue to support the agreements, but that the group around Bakiyev that originally opposed the Base continues to do so as well. The influence of this group had grown since the Russians delivered the promised $150 million grant and $300 million loan. Sarbayev also claimed that the "northern neighbors" (Russia) still strongly oppose the presence of the Base and that their weight had grown in Bakiyev's eyes proportionally to the $450 million aid which they had recently delivered. ¶6. (S) Sarbayev said he was trying to put together "strong arguments" in favor of the agreements, because Bakiyev "needed a push" to go forward at this point. Sounding more hopeful than sure of himself, Sarbayev said he hoped he would have authority to sign the agreements within a week. Even at that point, he said, the agreements would need to remain "confidential" as he worked on a roll-out strategy for the Parliament and the public. Sarbayev said that a telephone call from President Obama to Bakiyev after the signing would be "enormously helpful" in this regard. Sarbayev reiterated his request for a call from President Karzai and said that any news on the Ivanov investigation would also be useful. ¶7. (S) Comment: The meeting was not encouraging. Sarbayev appeared worried and unsure of his next step. At one point he even said, "If this fails, I'll take full responsibility." It appears to us that while he is still personally fully committed to the agreements, he is becoming unsure of whether he has the heft to get Bakiyev to actually sign off on them. He repeated several times: "We are so close, but he needs a little extra push." As many a Kyrgyz, he appears to hope that a deus ex machina -- the U.S., Afghanistan -- will provide it. However, he still managed to express the hope that the agreements could be signed within a week, and he said he would call the Ambassador immediately after meeting with the President. GFOELLER