PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR LAMENTS KYRGYZSTAN'S SLOW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000430 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KG SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR LAMENTS KYRGYZSTAN'S SLOW DECLINE REF: A. BISHKEK 196 ¶B. BISHKEK 194 ¶C. BISHKEK 121 ¶D. BISHKEK 109 BISHKEK 00000430 001.3 OF 002 Classified By: Amb. Tatiana Gfoeller, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Kyrgyz Presidential Advisor Muratbek Imanaliyev told the Ambassador April 30 that Kyrgyzstan is enduring a "slow decline" under President Bakiyev's administration, which itself is split between a limited number of democracy advocates and those focused more on business interests. Bakiyev, Imanaliev claimed, is resorting to alcohol to cope with the pressure. He blamed Bakiyev's Chief of Staff Usenov for former Chief of Staff Medet Sadyrkulov's "murder." Imanaliyev lamented the slate of opposition candidates for the July 23 Presidential election, and said former Deputy Prime Minister Ibraimova was a "naive, sad figure" who had been used by Sadyrkulov. With the opposition just as "corrupt" as Bakiyev, he concluded, it might be better for Bakiyev -- "the devil you know" to win the election. End summary. Slow Decline of State and Leadership -------------- ¶2. (C) In an April 30 conversation with the Ambassador, Kyrgyz Presidential Advisor Muratbek Imanaliyev lamented Kyrgyzstan's "slow decline" under President Bakiyev's administration. He described a battle within the Kyrgyz White House between those, like himself, seeking to steer Bakiyev towards endorsing a democratic Kyrgyzstan with a strong civil society and others, like Presidential Chief of Staff Daniyar Usenov, who are leading Bakiyev "down the wrong track." (Comment: Usenov is a wealthy businessman who is known to place an emphasis on financial and business interests over other considerations. End Comment.) Imanaliyev said Bakiyev is becoming increasingly disoriented and torn amongst the different internal factions, and claimed that Bakiyev has turned excessively to alcohol. This development, he noted, is making Bakiyev more unpredictable, and has resulted in "bad tendencies being exacerbated." Shock at Sadyrkulov's "Murder" -------------- ¶3. (C) Imanaliyev expressed deep shock at the March 13 "murder" of former Presidential Chief of Staff Medet Sadyrkulov. He told the Ambassador that he reproached Usenov for his role in the murder, reportedly telling Usenov: "This 
will bring you to your doom." (Comment: Sadyrkulov's charred remains were discovered in a Lexus SUV that had burned on an isolated road near Bishkek March 13 following a suspicious "accident." End Comment.) Imanaliyev claimed that the Bakiyev family and others, such as Usenov whom he described as operating with a "swagger," were focused not on governing the country, but instead on enriching themselves in preparation for departing the country in a few years. Opposition Not an Improvement -------------- ¶4. (C) In response to the Ambassador's query about the political opposition, Imanaliyev said they were "just as corrupt" and were waiting for "their turn at the trough." He described former Deputy Prime Minister Elmira Ibraimova as a "naive, sad figure," who lacked any popular support and had been "used" as a front for Sadyrkulov's ambitions. (Comment: Sadyrkulov and Ibraimova had been sounding out potential allies earlier this year in an effort to counter President Bakiyev's reelection. See Refs C and D. End Comment.) Lamenting the slate of Presidential candidates, Imanaliyev said that if Nurlan Motuyev (a populist former coal mine BISHKEK 00000430 002.3 OF 002 official) were elected President, he would leave Kyrgyzstan. Although declaring himself a patriot, he added that he might leave Kyrgyzstan forever if conditions continued to deteriorate. Presidential Election Prediction -------------- ¶5. (C) Imanaliyev predicted Bakiyev would win reelection July 23. Despite his earlier concerns about the slow decline under Bakiyev, he reasoned that the opposition would be "worse." The Ambassador asked Imanaliyev to comment on a recent conversation she had with a prominent local businessman who agreed with him that all opposition figures are corrupt and no better than Bakiyev but still advocated a Jeffersonian "alternation of power" as the reason for replacing Bakiyev with a member of the opposition. Imanaliyev responded that the Jeffersonian principle was a "nice theory," but that "in our reality," he had to conclude "sadly" that Bakiyev would be better than any opposition candidate because "the devil you know is better than the devil you do not know." Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Imanaliyev has long been an insightful source for the Embassy regarding developments at the Kyrgyz White House. His prediction of a Bakiyev victory echoes other estimations we have been hearing. Imanaliyev's reference to Sadyrkulov's death as "murder" does reflect a disturbing deterioration of political life in Kyrgyzstan. And, unfortunately, the trend of decision-making from the Kyrgyz White House seems to indicate that democracy and open civil society are not priorities for the current administration. GFOELLER