PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR LAMENTS KYRGYZSTAN'S SLOW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000430

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KG
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR LAMENTS KYRGYZSTAN'S SLOW
DECLINE

REF: A. BISHKEK 196

B. BISHKEK 194

C. BISHKEK 121

D. BISHKEK 109

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Classified By: Amb. Tatiana Gfoeller, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Kyrgyz Presidential Advisor Muratbek
Imanaliyev told the Ambassador April 30 that Kyrgyzstan is
enduring a "slow decline" under President Bakiyev's
administration, which itself is split between a limited
number of democracy advocates and those focused more on
business interests. Bakiyev, Imanaliev claimed, is resorting
to alcohol to cope with the pressure. He blamed Bakiyev's
Chief of Staff Usenov for former Chief of Staff Medet
Sadyrkulov's "murder." Imanaliyev lamented the slate of
opposition candidates for the July 23 Presidential election,
and said former Deputy Prime Minister Ibraimova was a "naive,
sad figure" who had been used by Sadyrkulov. With the
opposition just as "corrupt" as Bakiyev, he concluded, it
might be better for Bakiyev -- "the devil you know" to win
the election. End summary.

Slow Decline of State and Leadership
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2. (C) In an April 30 conversation with the Ambassador,
Kyrgyz Presidential Advisor Muratbek Imanaliyev lamented
Kyrgyzstan's "slow decline" under President Bakiyev's
administration. He described a battle within the Kyrgyz
White House between those, like himself, seeking to steer
Bakiyev towards endorsing a democratic Kyrgyzstan with a
strong civil society and others, like Presidential Chief of
Staff Daniyar Usenov, who are leading Bakiyev "down the wrong
track." (Comment: Usenov is a wealthy businessman who is
known to place an emphasis on financial and business
interests over other considerations. End Comment.)
Imanaliyev said Bakiyev is becoming increasingly disoriented
and torn amongst the different internal factions, and claimed
that Bakiyev has turned excessively to alcohol. This
development, he noted, is making Bakiyev more unpredictable,
and has resulted in "bad tendencies being exacerbated."

Shock at Sadyrkulov's "Murder"
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3. (C) Imanaliyev expressed deep shock at the March 13
"murder" of former Presidential Chief of Staff Medet
Sadyrkulov. He told the Ambassador that he reproached Usenov
for his role in the murder, reportedly telling Usenov: "This
will bring you to your doom." (Comment: Sadyrkulov's
charred remains were discovered in a Lexus SUV that had
burned on an isolated road near Bishkek March 13 following a
suspicious "accident." End Comment.) Imanaliyev claimed
that the Bakiyev family and others, such as Usenov whom he
described as operating with a "swagger," were focused not on
governing the country, but instead on enriching themselves in
preparation for departing the country in a few years.

Opposition Not an Improvement
--------------


4. (C) In response to the Ambassador's query about the
political opposition, Imanaliyev said they were "just as
corrupt" and were waiting for "their turn at the trough." He
described former Deputy Prime Minister Elmira Ibraimova as a
"naive, sad figure," who lacked any popular support and had
been "used" as a front for Sadyrkulov's ambitions. (Comment:
Sadyrkulov and Ibraimova had been sounding out potential
allies earlier this year in an effort to counter President
Bakiyev's reelection. See Refs C and D. End Comment.)
Lamenting the slate of Presidential candidates, Imanaliyev
said that if Nurlan Motuyev (a populist former coal mine

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official) were elected President, he would leave Kyrgyzstan.
Although declaring himself a patriot, he added that he might
leave Kyrgyzstan forever if conditions continued to
deteriorate.

Presidential Election Prediction
--------------


5. (C) Imanaliyev predicted Bakiyev would win reelection
July 23. Despite his earlier concerns about the slow decline
under Bakiyev, he reasoned that the opposition would be
"worse." The Ambassador asked Imanaliyev to comment on a
recent conversation she had with a prominent local
businessman who agreed with him that all opposition figures
are corrupt and no better than Bakiyev but still advocated a
Jeffersonian "alternation of power" as the reason for
replacing Bakiyev with a member of the opposition.
Imanaliyev responded that the Jeffersonian principle was a
"nice theory," but that "in our reality," he had to conclude
"sadly" that Bakiyev would be better than any opposition
candidate because "the devil you know is better than the
devil you do not know."

Comment
--------------


6. (C) Imanaliyev has long been an insightful source for the
Embassy regarding developments at the Kyrgyz White House.
His prediction of a Bakiyev victory echoes other estimations
we have been hearing. Imanaliyev's reference to Sadyrkulov's
death as "murder" does reflect a disturbing deterioration of
political life in Kyrgyzstan. And, unfortunately, the trend
of decision-making from the Kyrgyz White House seems to
indicate that democracy and open civil society are not
priorities for the current administration.
GFOELLER