ARAL SEA SUMMIT A SUCCESS, SAYS KAZAKH AMBASSADOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000428

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL SENV KZ KG
SUBJECT: ARAL SEA SUMMIT A SUCCESS, SAYS KAZAKH AMBASSADOR

REF: BISHKEK 427 (NOTAL)

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Classified By: Ambassador Tatiana C. Gfoeller, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Kazakh Ambassador Bakyt Ospanov called on
the Ambassador April 30 to give her a readout of the April 28
Aral Sea Summit in Almaty. Ospanov termed the summit a
success, and confirmed press reports that Kazakh President
Nazarbayev had rebuked President Bakiyev for trying to widen
the discussion to larger questions of regional water sharing
and compensation. Ospanov said that Kazakhstan hopes to gain
international support for the Aral Sea's restoration, in the
form of both resources, and international pressure on
Uzbekistan to restore water flows to the Aral Sea. END
SUMMARY.

It Was Supposed to Be About the Aral Sea
--------------


2. (C) After requesting an urgent meeting, Kazakh
Ambassador Bakyt Ospanov called on the Ambassador on 30 April
to give her a readout of the April 28 Aral Sea Summit in
Almaty. Ospanov put a positive spin on the Summit's outcome,
saying that a great deal had been accomplished, and that all
five Central Asian countries had signed a statement outlining
a program of work for restoring the Aral Sea. The Ambassador
asked about reports that Kazakh President Nazarbayev had
rebuked President Bakiyev for trying to widen the discussion
to larger questions of regional water sharing and
compensation. Ospanov confirmed it, noting that the Summit
was supposed to be wholly focused on the Aral Sea, which, he
added, was a complicated and contentious enough subject
without introducing additional issues.


3. (C) The Ambassador asked Ospanov if Russia had
participated, and Ospanov said that they had, and that he had
attended a presentation by the Russian Government. (Note:
Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Sarbayev earlier told the Ambassador
that Russia would not be participating in the Aral Sea
Summit. See reftel.) The Ambassador asked if there were any
realistic options for restoring the Aral Sea, short of
Uzbekistan turning away from a cotton monoculture. For
example, did the Summit address the possible compensation of
Uzbek farmers for their loss of revenue if they were to plant
less cotton? Ospanov replied that the original plan had been
for rivers in Siberia to be diverted to replace the lost
water from the diversion of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya
rivers and that this was still the best solution. When the
Ambassador expressed skepticism that the Russian Federation
would agree to divert its rivers to help other, sovereign and
independent states, Ospanov conceded that Russia was now
unlikely to carry out the plans that had been formulated in
the days of the Soviet Union.

The Plan: Dust Out, Money In
--------------


4. (C) In the absence of the USSR and its hubristic
willingness to improve upon nature, Ospanov said that
Kazakhstan's strategy for restoring the Aral Sea is to bring
it to the world's attention, hoping that international donors
will compensate Uzbek farmers, and international pressure
will lead the Uzbek Government to restore some water flows to
the sea. Ospanov enthusiastically laid out a case for
international involvement: Regionally, the loss of the Aral
Sea has led to local climate change and increased drought,
and it is probably at least partially responsible for the
shrinking of Kyrgyz glaciers and consequent water shortages.
Additionally, the salts and pollutants on the former sea bed
are picked up by the wind, and may travel as far as Western
Europe. Therefore, he concluded, those countries should have
an interest in paying for the Aral Sea's restoration.


5. (C) Ospanov concluded on an optimistic note, describing

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the success Kazakhstan has had in restoring the northern
section of the Aral Sea. Some 16 varieties of fish are now
thriving, according to Ospanov, and a fish processing plant
has been opened. He also noted that oil and natural gas are
likely to be found in the area, and if those resources are
exploited, the area could become vibrant. Noting
U.S.-Kazakhstan cooperation in areas ranging from Kazakh
military units in Iraq to regional counterterrorism and
counternarcotics work, he expressed the hope that cooperation
could continue, and welcomed U.S. investment, in the Aral Sea
area specifically and in Kazakhstan generally.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) Ospanov's motivations in providing this urgent
readout of the Summit are unclear. He may want to build a
relationship with the Ambassador, angle for greater U.S.
involvement in Aral Sea restoration, perhaps as a
counterweight to Russia's apparent interest, and/or provide a
Kazakh view on a subject of great interest to our normal
Kyrgyz interlocutors.
GFOELLER