KYRGYZ PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR CONCERNED ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000366 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/FO (DAS KROL) E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZ PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR CONCERNED ABOUT REGIONAL WATER TENSIONS Classified By: Amb. Tatiana Gfoeller, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In his initial meeting with the Ambassador, President Bakiyev's new Foreign Policy Advisor, Aibek Moldogaziev, expressed concern about "intolerant and aggressive" comments emanating from Tashkent on water issues, and outlined plans for a Kazakh-hosted regional water summit on April 28 to address the issue. Moldogaziev noted he wanted "open dialogue" with the United States to avoid future "misunderstandings" such as those that, he claimed, led to President Bakiyev's decision to close Manas Air Base. He offered to convey messages to President Bakiyev, and was receptive to the Ambassador's offer of briefings on U.S. programming in Kyrgyzstan. End Summary. Water Woes -------------- ¶2. (C) In a meeting with the Ambassador April 17, President Bakiyev's new Foreign Policy Advisor, Aibek Moldogaziev, who formerly headed the International Law Department at the Kyrgyz MFA, expressed concern about Uzbekistan's "intolerant and aggressive" stance on water issues. Moldogaziev said that Uzbekistan is "angry" with Kyrgyzstan, even though, he claimed, Kyrgyzstan's Kambarata hydroelectric projects would not decrease water flows downstream to Uzbekistan. Concerned about Uzbek attitudes, Kyrgyzstan asked Kazakh President Nazarbayev to mediate the dispute. According to Moldogaziev, President Nazabayev will invite all five Central Asian Presidents to a meeting in Astana on April 28 to discuss the water issue, and he was confident that all heads of state would attend. Moldogaziev said that Russia would not be a party to this meeting. While claiming at one point that Kyrgyzstan was not intimidated, at another point in the conversation he admitted that Kyrgyzstan was "scared" by Uzbekistan's bellicose rhetoric. Future of Manas -------------- ¶3. (C) After expressing apparent ignorance of any discussions on Manas Air Base's future, Moldogaziev commented that "misunderstandings" had led to President Bakiyev's decision to close Manas. He expressed hope that such problems could be avoided in the future. Moldogaziev assured the Ambassador of his desire for "open dialogue" with the United States. He also said he would support allowing the visit of a U.S. team to interview witnesses connected to the Hatfield/Ivanov case. Identifying Roles -------------- ¶4. (C) In response to the Ambassador's inquiry about the scope of his new job, Moldogaziev told her that he could serve as a conduit for any messages to President Bakiyev or Bakiyev's Chief of Staff Usenov; he claimed he had regular access to both men. After Moldogaziev commented on the Ambassador's close working relationship with Foreign Minister Sarbayev and their weekly teas at her house, the Ambassador noted that she hoped to replicate that relationship with Moldogaziev and offered him briefings on U.S. programming in Kyrgyzstan. The Ambassador added that she wanted Moldogaziev and others to be aware that U.S. programming benefits all of Kyrgyzstan. Our Man (Who Was) in China -------------- ¶5. (C) Reflecting on FM Sarbayev, Moldogaziev told the Ambassador that Sarbayev "looked Chinese" to him. Noting FM Sarbayev's previous posting as Ambassador to Beijing, Moldogaziev joked that spending so many years in China had BISHKEK 00000366 002 OF 002 "rubbed off" on Sarbayev. Then, gesticulating with his hands and face, Moldogaziev impersonated how "Chinese" he believed FM Sarbayev had become. (Comment: This bizarre behavior, coming during his first meeting with the Ambassador, raises questions about the relationship between Moldogaziev and Sarbayev, who worked together previously at the Foreign Ministry. End comment.) Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Although Bishkek and Tashkent have disagreed over water management issues previously, Moldogaziev's comments mark the most senior concern Kyrgyz officials have shared with us recently. We will be interested in seeing if the April 28 meeting takes place. ¶7. (C) Moldogaziev was extremely cordial with the Ambassador and appears genuinely open to a good working relationship with the United States. We plan to follow up on the Ambassador's offer and organize briefings for him on assistance programming. However, his comments also tell us that he is not currently in the inner decision-making circle at the Kyrgyz White House. While he may become influential within the White House with time, Moldogaziev's impersonation of FM Sarbayev was out of place, and if repeated elsewhere, may stymie his influence on foreign policy discussions. GFOELLER