KYRGYZ OPPOSITION STICKING TOGETHER BUT GOING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000346

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (GORKOWSKI)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ OPPOSITION STICKING TOGETHER BUT GOING
NOWHERE

REF: A. BISHKEK 290

B. BISHKEK 156

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Classified By: Ambassador Tatiana C. Gfoeller, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: POLOFF held separate meetings April 8 with
Ata Meken Party and Social Democrat Party representatives.
Both men sounded common themes: The alliance of opposition
parties within the United People's Movement (UPM) is holding,
for now, in spite of ongoing internal struggles over who will
be the UPM's candidate in the Presidential race. However,
neither evinced any realistic hope that UPM's candidate would
actually triumph in the face of overwhelming government
resources and unrelenting pressure. END SUMMARY.

The United Opposition's Candidate Is . . .
--------------


2. (C) POLOFF met with Ata Meken Press Secretary and Youth
Wing leader Joomart Saparbayev on April 8. According to
Saparbayev, Social Democrat (SDPK) leader Almaz Atambayev is
currently slated to be the UPM candidate for President.
However, he emphasized the present tense, noting that not all
of the principals within UPM are reconciled to putting
Atambayev in the front, and that the candidate could well
change before there is a formal announcement. Saparbayev
said that the announcement by Ata Meken leader Omurbek
Tekebayev that he would not stand as a Presidential candidate
had taken everyone in the party by surprise, contrary to
Tekebayev's claim that the decision had been made by the
Party, and not by him personally. However, Tekebayev seems
to be leaving his options open: in an April 9 press story he
said that if the UPM could not identify a candidate, he might
reconsider his decision.


3. (C) Saparbayev alluded to ongoing struggles within the
UPM, and indicated some uncertainty about how long the
alliance would hold together. He said that Ata Meken was
committed to the alliance, and regardless of which candidate
is ultimately chosen, will mobilize all of its resources in
the campaign. But he was skeptical that all of the UPM's
members would be similarly steadfast, and said that he
believed some alliance members were already negotiating
separate deals with the government.


4. (C) With remarkably little enthusiasm, he claimed that
he was optimistic about the campaign, but then admitted that
the constant government pressure on the opposition was
draining. Both his brother and his father had lost their
government jobs because of his political activities, and he
had been questioned several times by the GKNB intelligence
service. He said that this pattern of legal and family
harassment was typical of all active opposition party members.

Or maybe not . . .
--------------


5. (C) SDPK Parliamentary Secretary Asylbek Bolotbayev
confirmed reports that the UPM had decided to field several
candidates as a tactical measure (ref A),but said that the
UPM has not yet settled on a final candidate. Rather than
Atambayev, he thought that SDPK Parliamentary Leader Bakyt
Beshimov stood the best chance of becoming the UPM's
candidate. Bolotbayev did not view Tekebayev's decision to
stand down as a candidate as a self-sacrificing move for the
sake of the opposition's unity. Rather, he wondered what
kompromat the government had on Tekebayev, noting that it
must go well beyond the "video porn" that has already been
released (ref B).


6. (C) Bolotbayev was somewhat more positive than Saparbayev
on the UPM, saying that the members of the opposition
understand that they need each other, and that the joint
selection of a single candidate would be a significant

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accomplishment. According to Bolotbayev, the government is
actively trying to pick apart the UPM, and he attributed the
opposition party Asaba's recent departure from the UPM to
some combination of government blandishments and pressure.
However, he minimized the political importance of Asaba's
departure, and said that so far, the main powers in the UPM
were holding tight.


7. (C) On the flip side, Bolotbayev saw few gains to the
opposition from potential splits in the ruling Ak Jol party.
Bolotbayev said that Medet Sadyrkulov's death scared many
people, opposition and government alike, but he judged the
loyalties of former Sadyrkulov proteges in Parliament as
shallow. Of the 25 deputies with strong ties to him, only
one spoke out when it became apparent that the investigation
of Sadyrkulov's death would be a whitewash. He was
particularly dismissive of Former Deputy Prime Minister
Elmira Ibraimova, saying that she could bring nothing useful
to the UPM.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Bolotbayev identified an additional reason for the
opposition not to get their hopes up. Even beyond the
government's administrative resources, superior financing,
and control of the media and the power organs, the government
has one more thing going for it: the majority of Kyrgyz are
uneducated and politically unsophisticated, and they think
the current government is doing a good job. If Bolotbayev's
pessimistic analysis is correct, it will be very hard for the
UPM's Presidential candidate to gain traction, absent some
event that sparks popular anger at the government.
GFOELLER