IBRAIMOVA ASSERTS SHE IS UNIFYING THE KYRGYZ

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000236 SIPDIS DEPT FOR P - U/S BURNS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KG SUBJECT: IBRAIMOVA ASSERTS SHE IS UNIFYING THE KYRGYZ OPPOSITION REF: A. BISHKEK 226 ¶B. BISHKEK 235 BISHKEK 00000236 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Tatiana C. Gfoeller, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Former Deputy Prime Minister Ibraimova told the Embassy March 19 that she and other opposition leaders have decided to form a "unified group" to oppose President Bakiyev in the upcoming presidential elections, and that she would stand as the group's presidential candidate. Ibraimova said that opposition demonstrations planned for March 27 (Ref B) would be relatively small. Ibraimova said she was trying to follow up with contacts in Kazakhstan and Russia to secure the $15 million Sadyrkulov had arranged to finance their efforts. Ibraimova plans to travel to Kazakhstan during the week of March 23, and then to Russia and Washington, where she hopes to have "appropriate" meetings. End Summary. ¶2. (C) On March 19, former Deputy Prime Minister Elmira Ibraimova told an American employee of the Embassy that she had brought together four other opposition leaders to form a "unified group" to oppose President Bakiyev in upcoming elections. (Note: Kyrgyzstan's Constitutional Court ruled on March 19 that presidential elections must be held by October 2009. End note.) Ibraimova said she met March 18 with Ata Meken leader Omurbek Tekebayev, Ak Shumkar leader Temir Sariyev, former MP Bolotbek Sherniyazov, and former Prime Minister Almaz Atambayev, who agreed to unite, with Ibraimova to stand as the group's candidate for president. Ibraimova said that they were considering admitting additional members to the group, including an unnamed "prominent Uzbek" and possibly Azimbek Beknazarov. ¶3. (C) Ibraimova said she expected the opposition's nationwide anti-Bakiyev demonstrations, planned for March 27, to be relatively small. She said the opposition was not prepared and did not have money to sustain significant demonstrations. Ibraimova said she had persuaded Tekebayev and others to keep the demonstrations "under control." She claimed that Tekebayev did have plans to let the demonstrations "get out of hand," but she had argued that such unrest would backfire, hurting the opposition's reputation and credibility, particularly among international organizations. ¶4. (C) Ibraimova thought that the government would try to provoke an incident during the demonstrations. She claimed to have learned through contacts in the Kyrgyz administration that President Bakiyev's brother Janysh, Minister of Internal Affairs Kongantiyev, and Prosecutor General Satybaldiyev had met to discuss plans to send "sportsmen" into the crowds of demonstrators in order to provoke a response from the police. ¶5. (C) Ibraimova repeated her charge that the Kyrgyz government was deliberately delaying the investigation into the death of former Chief of Staff Medet Sadyrkulov, in order to defuse anger and tension over his apparent killing in a staged automobile accident. Ibraimova said that Sadyrkulov had arranged $15 million in financing -- to come in three tranches of $5 million -- for their new opposition movement from Kazakh and Russian sources. She said she had made contact with the Kazakh parties, and she planned to travel to Kazakhstan during the week of March 23 to meet with them. She implied that the Kazakh support was being given with the knowledge of the Kazakh government. Ibraimova said she was still trying to trace Sadyrkulov's contacts in Russia. She said she planned to travel to Moscow for meetings with financiers and at the Kremlin. Ibraimova added that she was also trying to contact former President Askar Akayev, who now lives in Russia. ¶6. (C) Ibraimova repeated her request for U.S. support (see BISHKEK 00000236 002.2 OF 002 ¶7. (C) Ibraimova said she was concerned about her personal safety. She said that personal bodyguards from her father's home village had quit after facing threats, and she was now being protected by colleagues from her time as the head of the ARIS development project. She said she was still living in her apartment, but the GKNB had moved "with much equipment" into the apartment across the landing from hers. ¶8. (C) Comment: Ibraimova presents her version of events here, which we cannot corroborate at this time. Sadyrkulov's death may help push the disparate opposition forces together, and Ibraimova is a respected figure, but her assertion that she has the support of the other major opposition leaders may be a stretch. In any event, she faces serious risks taking up the mantle of opposition leader. GFOELLER