KYRGYZ PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR SEES NO INTERNAL

S E C R E T BISHKEK 000196 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (GORKOWSKI) E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZ PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR SEES NO INTERNAL FRICTION IN RULING PARTY REF: A. BISHKEK 119 ¶B. BISHKEK 109 Classified By: Amb. Tatiana Gfoeller, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S) Summary: Kyrgyz Presidential Advisor Imanaliyev told the Ambassador March 4 that a party congress of the ruling Ak Jol party may not occur. He concluded that any Ak Jol party congress would be a "rubber-stamp session" because intra-party debate only occurs within "real parties." Imanaliyev's comments about an Ak Jol party congress seem to diminish prospects, as reported in reftels, that a party gathering could be used by recently ousted senior government officials to challenge Bakiyev's leadership. End summary. Ak Jol -- A Party United? -------------- ¶2. (C) Following discussion of Manas Air Base-related issues (septel),the Ambassador asked Kyrgyz Presidential Advisor Muratbek Imanaliyev March 4 about delays in the Ak Jol party congress. (Note: Ak Jol is the pro-presidential party which dominates the Kyrgyz Parliament. End note.) Although March 16-17 have been mentioned as possible Ak Jol party congress dates, Imanaliyev noted that the Presidential Administration had not yet decided whether an Ak Jol gathering is needed. However, he thought that if it occurred, any party meeting would likely consider changes to the Kyrgyz Constitution. He cited a proposal, which he said he dislikes, that would eliminate the Prime Ministerial post, and make the President head of government. While uncertain if a party congress would take place, Imanaliyev doubted that anything unexpected would occur. "An Ak Jol congress would be a rubber-stamp session," he concluded, "because intra-party debate only occurs within real parties where there are different views." Brains or Brawn -- Advice to the Opposition -------------- ¶3. (C) Imanaliyev claimed that the Kyrgyz opposition is "too busy at each other's throats" to be meaningful, and recounted a recent conversation he had with an unnamed opposition leader. He said the opposition politician asked Imanaliyev for advice on how to become a leader. Imanaliyev said that he told the politician that he should make his mind whether his goal was to become a "true leader or simply the President." If the former, then he suggested that the route would be arduous but rewarding: become a "Gandhi-like figure" with grass roots support, a strong platform, constructive ideas on defining a Kyrgyz identity, and/or a nationalist agenda. If the latter, he advised, a politician could easily become President of Kyrgyzstan by "hiring 500 thugs to beat up President Bakiyev and throw him out of the White House." Comment -------------- ¶4. (S) Imanaliyev's comments about the Ak Jol party congress are interesting as they indicate that ideas, as reported in reftels, voiced by recently ousted senior government officials to use the gathering as a forum to challenge President Bakiyev's leadership of the country may not be realized. While other opposition politicians continue to scour the countryside for support and have announced March 27 as a day for nationwide meetings, we have not heard any more about internal Ak Jol machinations against Bakiyev. Some observers have suggested that Russian financial aid (promised by Russian President Medvedev in early February) may be used to pay off politicians and secure President Bakiyev's reelection. We will continue to monitor Ak Jol party developments for any signs of discontent with Bakiyev's leadership. GFOELLER