KYRGYZ PRESIDENT WELCOMES NEGOTIATIONS ON MANAS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BISHKEK 000180 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR MOPS KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZ PRESIDENT WELCOMES NEGOTIATIONS ON MANAS REF: A. BISHKEK 175 ¶B. BISHKEK 165 ¶C. BISHKEK 164 ¶D. STATE 17012 ¶E. STATE 9012 BISHKEK 00000180 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: Ambassador Tatiana C. Gfoeller, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary and Comment. In a warm and cordial meeting, President Bakiyev told the Ambassador he wants to continue to support coalition efforts in Afghanistan. He said the U.S. should "absolutely" send out a team to negotiate a new agreement for Manas Air Base; he was prepared to negotiate on the basis of the U.S. proposal of February 2. However, he had some suggestions: change the name from a military base to a logistics center; limit immunity for U.S. servicemen to the physical confines of the Base; and add a second, outer "Kyrgyz" security contingent around the Base. In a surprise about-face, Bakiyev warmly welcomed the U.S. proposal to build a parking ramp, saying removal of U.S. planes from the middle of the airport would "calm people down." On the basis of this meeting, the Ambassador judges Bakiyev genuinely wants to reach a new agreement with us on Manas, and the Embassy recommends sending a negotiating team to Bishkek at the end of March. End Summary and Comment. Bakiyev Annoints Foreign Minister on Manas -------------- ¶2. (C) On March 2, Ambassador met with President Bakiyev and Foreign Minister Sarbayev in an attempt to clarify the Kyrgyz position on the future of Manas Air Base. The Ambassador opened by explaining that she had been receiving mixed signals about whether or not the Kyrgyz were prepared to receive a U.S. negotiating team on the basis of our February 2 proposal on Manas (Ref E). Bakiyev said he was familiar with the elements of the U.S. proposal and welcomed the chance to clarify his position. First, Bakiyev said, from now on the Ambassador should deal only with Foreign Minister Sarbayev on Manas. He, Bakiyev, had called in his Chief of Staff, Daniyar Usenov, and told the latter that he was finished dealing with Manas. Bakiyev said, "I told him not to get involved with the Base anymore." ¶3. (C) Bakiyev said that he was "very sad" that the issue of Manas was complicating relations with the new U.S. administration. He professed to having the greatest respect for President Obama who, in effect, was suffering the consequences of three years of his predecessor's bad policies on Manas. Bakiyev acknowledged he had "poured out his bitterness" over Manas on the new U.S. administration. For three years, Bakiyev claimed, he had talked to everyone -- former President Bush, Secretaries Rice and Gates, visiting U.S. senators and other senior officials. "I told them all we need to take a new look at the terms of the agreement," he said. They all said they'd "look into it," but nothing changed. "I have no problem with the U.S.," Bakiyev continued. "I'm grateful for everything you've done for us since independence. But times have changed, and the price on the Base has changed, too." ¶4. (C) Bakiyev said he does not blame President Obama for this. He said he was impressed with the President's focus on Afghanistan, which Bakiyev said posed a bigger threat to Kyrgyzstan and Russia than it did to the U.S. "Your sacrifice in Afghanistan is altruistic; it's not your problem, but you are solving it," he said. Bakiyev said he did not want to "start out on the wrong foot" with President Obama, "but look, he's being punished for his predecessor's BISHKEK 00000180 002.2 OF 004 misdeeds, just as I am constantly being blamed for the misdeeds of my predecessor." Complaints: Ivanov and Fuel Dumping -------------- ¶5. (C) Turning to his complaints about Manas, Bakiyev started with the 2006 shooting incident. "You are lucky Ivanov (the victim) was an ethnic Russian. They don't care about family; their children grow up and leave. Russians only have a wife -- and now you have his widow running around calling to close the Base. But, if Ivanov had been an ethnic Kyrgyz, you would have had his whole clan and family working against you. Frankly, I probably would have had to close the Base down at that time." But the fact that he was Russian does not mean the U.S. can ignore the incident. Turning to the issue of environmental damage caused by fuel dumping, Bakiyev said, "I know you say you dump at such high altitude there is no damage. But I've visited the villages near the airport and seen first-hand grapes ruined from the dumping. So you clearly dump at lower altitudes than you admit." And support for NGO's and the Opposition -------------- ¶6. (C) Bakiyev went on at length about U.S. support for civil society. He said he believes NGO's are important; power needs to be curbed and looked at with a critical eye. He understood why the U.S. Ambassador would meet with NGO's, but asked that it be done "publicly." "By this I mean invite some government representatives and have an open roundtable. Don't meet one-on-one with opposition leaders where no one knows what is said; that emboldens the opposition, which claims and thinks they have your support." It is good to have an opposition, he said, but it should be constructive. "Now, the opposition only consists of individuals, each of whom says Bakiyev should go and they should take my place." Getting down to brass tacks: Send out a team -------------- ¶7. (C) Returning to Manas, Bakiyev told the Ambassador, "You should absolutely send out a team. We have enough time and can reach a new agreement. I want to help you and the coalition. We are ready to contribute by hosting Manas." The Ambassador asked if Bakiyev understood that we were prepared only to talk on the basis of our February 2 proposal. Bakiyev replied in the affirmative, noting that he especially liked our proposal to create a joint economic development fund and an environmental roundtable. But, Bakiyev added, he had a few "suggestions:" -- First, why not change the name from a "military base" to a "logistics center" or "cargo center?" He quickly added that, "the mission would of course remain the same." -- Next, regarding the U.S. "contingent" on the Base. They go downtown, drink and get in trouble, Bakiyev claimed. "We cannot accept their immunity off-Base. On-Base, they have full immunity. But not off-Base. They should not drive off-Base, either; they should hire Kyrgyz drivers. That way, if there's an accident, the Kyrgyz driver is at fault." -- Security: "What you do on Base is your business. Your Base will be untouched by us. But, I'd like to see a second, Kyrgyz, cordon of security around the Base. This could be Customs, or the military. They would check the I.D.'s of personnel leaving the Base." -- The Ramp: Bakiyev said he wanted the U.S. to move its planes to the far end of the airport where they will not be seen. "Your ramp proposal is a good idea," he said. For the BISHKEK 00000180 003.2 OF 004 $36 million the U.S. is proposing, he continued, "you could build a really distant ramp -- that would calm people down." Let's talk teams -------------- ¶8. (C) Warming to the topic, Bakiyev said, "Now let's talk negotiating teams." He indicated that FM Sarbayev would head the Kyrgyz team, along with representatives from the Ministry of Defense, and from the government apparatus. He instructed FM Sarbayev to "get people who won't leak -- this must be done confidentially." He added to the Ambassador, "We should be clear that we are negotiating a new agreement. We have denounced the old one. But for now, we should say nothing publicly." He added that he would welcome a U.S. team at the end of March or in early April at the latest. The Ambassador then briefed Bakiyev on the U.S. proposal to send a team to interview witnesses as a next step in the Ivanov investigation. Bakiyev welcomed the idea, and instructed Sarbayev to approve the team coming. Sarbayev ecstatic -------------- ¶9. (C) Sarbayev, who was visibly nervous prior to the meeting, was ecstatic walking out. He said it would be helpful if, in addition to helping arrange visits by Karzai and Ban Ki-moon to Kyrgyzstan, the U.S. could generate a UN report that underlined the seriousness of the situation in Afghanistan. In response to the Ambassador's concern that the status of personnel issue might be a deal-breaker for the U.S., Sarbayev said, "Don't report it. Let me work on him." Sarbayev added, "I promise you we can work out a solution." He did not see the issue as a redline for Bakiyev. "In the worst case scenario, we can announce publicly that U.S. forces do not have immunity, but in reality they will," said Sarbayev. The Ambassador said firmly that she would report everything the President said exactly, but promised to also report Sarbayev's contention that this is not a redline. Atmospherics: A kinder, gentler Bakiyev -------------- ¶10. (C) Throughout, the atmospherics of the meeting could not have been more cordial. What had been billed as a 20 minute call turned into a 45-minute extended discussion where Bakiyev was clearly trying to establish a personal rapport with the Ambassador. Bakiyev kept fussing about the Ambassador's comfort, at one point jumping out of his chair to go close a window which he thought was letting cold air blow onto her. The President made a point of inquiring about her family. When told that she has a son at West Point, he began reminiscing about his own childhood. His dream had been to become a fighter pilot. His parents would have been against this, so he secretly applied to be admitted to the USSR's elite fighter pilot school. He was about to gain acceptance but had to pass his physical. There he was discovered to be color-blind -- which he claims he had never realized he was before. So ended his future military career, but Bakiyev heaped praise on the Ambassador's son's "masculine and sturdy choice." ¶11. (C) Bakiyev then said that he had heard from sources that the Ambassador likes living in Kyrgyzstan very much -- which she sincerely confirmed -- and inquired as to where she had been in the country. The Ambassador described her travels. She mentioned that she is a fan of Central Asia and knows the region well, having served a total of 6 years in Russia and 2 in Turkmenistan. Bakiyev praised the Kyrgyz people as "gentle" and "kind." The Ambassador agreed, saying that in her experience, most Kyrgyz are not as aggressive in their personal interactions as the Russians can be. Bakiyev BISHKEK 00000180 004.2 OF 004 and Sarbayev both rolled their eyes and laughed. "You're quite right, there!" exclaimed the President. "The Russians can get very aggressive. We know something about that personally!" Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) Bakiyev was much more open and pro-American than the Ambassador's earlier interlocutors had led her to believe he would be. Bakiyev had a number of facts wrong, but clearly wanted to convey a positive message. On the issue of restricting immunity for U.S. personnel to the Base, one way to address this would be to restrict U.S. military personnel to the Base and not allow off-Base activities. We understand the U.S. has imposed similar limitations in other instances. Civilian contractors who left the Base or lived off-Base would be subject to Kyrgyz law. Although we do not know how Bakiyev plans to handle the Russian angle, and note that he can change his mind unexpectedly, our judgment at this point is that Bakiyev genuinely wants to come to a new agreement with us on Manas. We also take it as a positive sign that Bakiyev has put Foreign Minister Sarbayev, who supports reaching an agreement, in charge of further discussions, removing Chief of Staff Usenov from the equation. Nothing the Ambassador heard would seem to preclude negotiations and, given Manas' importance and the investment we have made in it to date, we would recommend sending out a negotiating team in late March. GFOELLER