BRITISH AND TURKISH ENGAGE KYRGYZ ON MANAS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000159 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (GORKOWSKI) E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR ECON KG SUBJECT: BRITISH AND TURKISH ENGAGE KYRGYZ ON MANAS REF: A. BISHKEK 124 ¶B. BISHKEK 151 ¶C. BISHKEK 152 BISHKEK 00000159 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Amb. Tatiana Gfoeller, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: British Ambassador Brummell informed the Ambassador that two key Kyrgyz Parliamentary leaders repeated the same Manas Air Base talking points that he heard during his earlier demarche to Kyrgyz Deputy FM Kalambekova. Social Democrat Bakyt Beshimov, the sole Parliamentarian who voted against the anti-Base legislation, told Brummell the Base supported Kyrgyz and regional security. World Bank and IMF officials cited economic woes as the basis for Kyrgyz pressure on the Base. Turkish Ambassador Alpman recounted Kyrgyz comments to a visiting Turkish delegation that the Kyrgyz side is waiting for a U.S. proposal on Manas -- a line Kyrgyz officials are using with many who ask about Manas Air Base. End summary. Parliamentary Views on Manas -------------- ¶2. (C) Following their earlier discussion regarding his demarche to Kyrgyz Deputy FM Kalambekova (ref B), Astana-based British Ambassador Paul Brummell briefed the Ambassador about his additional meetings in Bishkek regarding Manas Air Base. Brummell said he delivered the same points regarding Manas to Parliament Speaker Aitibai Tagayev, an Ak Jol faction leader and Social Democrat Bakyt Beshimov in separate meetings. According to Brummell, Tagayev and the Ak Jol leader (Ak Jol occupies most seats in Parliament) utilized the same basic talking points Kalambekova had used. Beshimov, who cast the sole vote against the Base agreement renunciation, expressed his view that Manas Air Base is beneficial to the Kyrgyz Republic and that its presence aids the region in its fight against terrorism and narco-trafficking. Beshimov added that the Kyrgyz government is short-sighted and will not admit that Afghanistan is unstable. (Note: See ref A for more on Beshimov's views. End note.) The Economic Argument -------------- ¶3. (C) Brummell informed the Ambassador that the local International Monetary Fund and World Bank representatives told him that Kyrgyz budgetary woes were the basis for Kyrgyz pressure on Manas Air Base, and reasoned that the Kyrgyz wanted to squeeze the Base for more funds. (Note: See ref C for more on Kyrgyz economic problems. End note.) Turks Raise Manas Amidst Energy Discussions -------------- ¶4. (C) Turkish Ambassador Serpil Alpman briefed the Ambassador about the February 20 meetings of visiting Minister of Energy Hilmi Guler with President Bakiyev, PM Chudinov, Energy Minister Davydov and Small and Medium-Sized Energy Systems Director (and former Prime Minister) Kulov. Alpman asked Guler to raise the Manas Air Base issue with his interlocutors, who reportedly replied that the Kyrgyz side was waiting for the United States to make a proposal on the Base. (Note: Alpman also added that Presidential Administration officials were quite opposed to the Kulov meeting, and reasoned that Bakiyev and his team still viewed Kulov as a potential rival. End note.) ¶5. (C) Alpman told the Ambassador that Guler considered the energy component of his visit as a success -- a conclusion which Alpman did not support. Guler focused on potential energy sector investment by Turkish firms, which Alpman viewed as risky due to limited protection of investment in the Kyrgyz Republic. BISHKEK 00000159 002.2 OF 002 Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) British and Turkish engagement with the Kyrgyz on Manas Air Base complements efforts by Canadian and European Union officials to emphasize the importance of Manas on multinational operations in Afghanistan. The Kyrgyz clearly have talking points explaining their reasons for seeking the Base's closure, but readily reveal their "if asked" talking point that they are looking for a U.S. proposal on the Base. It appears the Kyrgyz are trying to tell those who ask that it is time for the U.S. to float a new Manas proposal. GFOELLER