KYRGYZ PARLIAMENT APPROVES LAW TO CLOSE MANAS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000145 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZ PARLIAMENT APPROVES LAW TO CLOSE MANAS REF: A. BISHKEK 124 ¶B. BISHKEK 96 BISHKEK 00000145 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Tatiana C. Gfoeller, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a lopsided vote February 19, Kyrgyzstan's Parliament approved the law to nullify the 2001 U.S.-Kyrgyz Manas Air Base agreement. The law will next go to President Bakiyev for signature. Once signed, the law enters into force, and the MFA should send official notification of that to the Embassy. Both steps could happen quickly, or could be delayed for weeks. Under the terms of the 2001 agreement, either party can terminate the agreement with 180 days written notice. The 180 day period does not begin until the Embassy receives the formal diplomatic note invoking this clause of the agreement, a step which the President's Chief of Staff had previously characterized to the Ambassador as the signal to begin negotiations. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Following Kyrgyz President Bakiyev's February 3 announcement in Moscow that he had decided to close Manas Air Base, the Kyrgyz Government immediately sent to Parliament a draft law to nullify the 2001 Base agreement, along with three bills for approving the Russian financial assistance package. Parliament passed the financial assistance legislation on February 6. However, despite the instruction to consider the Manas matter expeditiously, Parliament moved slowly, referring the law to three committees and the three political party factions represented in Parliament for review. According to opposition Social Democrat MP Bakyt Beshimov, the delay in voting on the Base legislation was a tactic designed simply to separate the Manas closure from its obvious connection to the Russian financial package (Ref A). However, Communist Party leader Iskak Masaliyev told the press he thought Parliament should delay consideration until Kyrgyzstan had received the Russian assistance money, which is expected to take place in April. ¶3. (U) The first committee to consider the legislation, Parliament's Defense Committee, voted its approval on February 9, and also recommended that the government forward legislation to cancel agreements concerning Manas with eleven other Coalition partners. (Note: While other countries have agreements with the Kyrgyz for use of Manas, only France and Spain operate out of Manas. End Note.) On February 17, the Committee on Constitutional Legislation and the Committee on International Relations approved the bill. The International Relations Committee noted that the objectives set out in the Base agreement had been met, as Afghanistan had established state institutions, adopted a constitution, and formed a government. On February 18, the three political parties represented in Parliament discussed the legislation, with the ruling Ak Jol party (71 seats) and the Communist party (8 seats) approving the legislation, and the opposition Social Democrats (11 seats) not supporting the bill. ¶4. (SBU) On February 19, Parliament considered the bill in plenary session. During the short debate, several MPs listed complaints about the Base, including the failure to resolve the Ivanov shooting case, alleged environmental damage from fuel dumping, and negative public opinion about the Base. Only one MP, Social Democrat Bakyt Beshimov, spoke out eloquently against closing the Base, arguing it was vital for security in Central Asia. Foreign Minister Sarbayev presented the Government's case for closing the Base, and, among other things, alleged that U.S. planes had dumped from 20 to 40 tons of fuel in Kyrgyzstan on 15 occasions. ¶5. (C) Parliament then voted 78 to 2 (with 1 abstention) to approve the bill. The next step will be for President Bakiyev to sign the bill into law. After that, the Ministry BISHKEK 00000145 002.2 OF 002 of Foreign Affairs should provide official notification of this to the Embassy via diplomatic note. Under the terms of the 2001 agreement, either party can terminate the agreement with 180 days written notice. ¶6. (C) Comment: Parliament's vote comes as no surprise. Parliament is completely controlled by President Bakiyev's Ak Jol party, and the committee, faction, and plenary discussions did not represent an independent review of the decision to close the Base. While Parliament's vote will attract a great deal of media attention, it does not by itself signify a final decision. As Presidential Chief of Staff Usenov told the Ambassador just prior to Bakiyev's February 3 announcement, the six-month notification to terminate the agreement is just the signal to begin negotiations. The next steps in the notification process -- Presidential signature and delivery of the diplomatic note -- could happen in days or, as has been the case in the past, could be delayed for weeks. A delay could signal Kyrgyz cold feet to actually invoke the six month clause but, given Usenov's comment above, it does not appear that the Kyrgyz view notification as an irreversible step in the negotiating process over Manas. GFOELLER