FRENCH ON MANAS: SHOULD WE STAY OR SHOULD WE GO?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001182 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (GORKOWSKI) E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KG FR SUBJECT: FRENCH ON MANAS: SHOULD WE STAY OR SHOULD WE GO? REF: BISHKEK 1147 Classified By: Ambassador Tatiana C. Gfoeller, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Outgoing French Ambassador Alain Couanon told the Ambassador that Special Representative Thierry Mariani's recent proposals for renegotiating an agreement for French troops at Manas Transit Center have little chance of winning French political approval. Couanon suggested that France's interests would be better served by shutting everything down, and managing all relations from Kazakhstan. French Charge Jean-Pierre Godart, who reports to Couanon from Bishkek, portrayed Couanon as an obstacle to rejoining negotiations on Manas. Godart also lamented the French Foreign Ministry's complete disengagement, noting that the Foreign Ministry is pushing him to take action that directly contradicts Mariani's proposals. END SUMMARY. French Ambassador: Goodbye and Good Riddance -------------- ¶2. (C) Ambassador Gfoeller met with the outgoing French Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Alain Couanon, based in Astana, on October 25. The Ambassador mentioned that the Kyrgyz had been impressed by Special Representative Thierry Mariani's recent visit and that the three points he put forward might go far to address Kyrgyz concerns (reftel). Unexpectedly, Couanon all but sneered, dismissing the proposals as non-starters, and Mariani himself as "a showboat." According to Couanon, just the fact that Mariani made the proposals is enough to damn them in the eyes of Foreign Minister Kouchner, and Mariani certainly does not have enough pull with President Sarkozy to guarantee a meeting with President Bakiyev. Couanon said that he had just put a lot of effort into setting up a meeting between Kazakh President Nazarbayev and Sarkozy, and Sarkozy had been criticized in the press for meeting with a dictator. Now, claimed Couanon, Sarkozy is gun shy, and will not meet with foreigners unless there is some clear and immediate political benefit. ¶3. (C) Regarding Mariani's second and third points, of upgrading to an Embassy and stationing two economic representatives in Kyrgyzstan, Couanon said that the proposals are too expensive, and simply cannot be justified in the light of France's almost non-existent interests in Kyrgyzstan, the use of the Manas Transit Center notwithstanding. The best option, Couanon said, would be to close down the French diplomatic presence in Kyrgyzstan altogether. French Charge Caught Between the Kyrgyz and . . . the French -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) On October 30, curious as to how to triangulate the direction of French policy between Mariani and Couanon, the Ambassador met with French Charge Jean-Pierre Godart. When the Ambassador mentioned that she had her last meeting with Couanon before he begins his next job in Paris, Godart scoffed: "He is not going on to a new job. He has been involuntarily retired." Otherwise, Godart was not surprised by what Couanon told the Ambassador. Godart said that he has been trying to communicate to Paris that a return to Manas is both possible and worthwhile, but since Couanon disagrees, and clears on all reporting from Godart, that message has not been getting through. Godart said that after Couanon officially departs his post on November 1, he hopes to sneak in a "blast" to Paris, reporting his view of the situation regarding Manas, but he is unsure whether the new DCM in Astana will let him. The old one, he added, had been &a cowboy, but the new one is even worse: he,s simply incompetent.8 ¶5. (C) Godart brushed away Couanon's idea that since Kouchner hates Mariani, Mariani's proposals would go nowhere, BISHKEK 00001182 002 OF 002 adding that "Kouchner hates everyone." Godart passed on an anecdote to illustrate Kouchner's misanthropy: When Sarkozy and Kouchner were getting off the plane in Astana earlier in October, Ambassador Couanon ran up to pay his respects to the President, apparently turning his back to Kouchner. As Couanon was greeting Sarkozy, Kouchner hit him forcefully in the back, almost knocking him down, and told him that it would be more appropriate for him to greet his own boss first. Godart admitted that Mariani might not be able to deliver on both an official Bakiyev visit to Paris and the upgrading of relations, but he thought Mariani was too energetic a politician to accept total defeat across the board. What Does Paris Know? -------------- ¶6. (C) Godart said that the French MFA seems entirely oblivious to the Manas situation. All reports, whether they reflect Mariani's views or Couanon's, go into "a black hole," and no guidance emerges in response. Accordingly, he does not know whether Mariani's three proposals are policy or not, when and whether a delegation is coming to Bishkek, and what he should tell the Kyrgyz in the interim: Foreign Minister Sarbayev is pressing Godart on when France will install an Ambassador and open their Embassy. But the MFA's only current interest in Kyrgyzstan has been in pushing Godart to obtain agrement for the new Ambassador, to be based, like Couanon, in Astana. Since inquiring about that would obviously undermine the notion that France is considering a resident Ambassador, Godart has been stalling them, but he was uncertain how long he could continue doing so. ¶7. (C) Godart also told the Ambassador that according to the French military attache, the French military contingent that used to be based at Manas Transit Center had a difficult time in Dushanbe. Because of the altitude, their planes were "40% less effective," and they had to cancel many missions because of problems with their wings icing. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) The conversations with the French offer a good glimpse into the internal disagreements on engagement with Kyrgyzstan and the future of French troops at the Manas Transit Center. The French Charge, due to a lack of guidance from Paris and Astana, has not been able to take the lead in relations with the Government of Kyrgyzstan, leading to hurt pride on the side of the Kyrgyz. GFOELLER