DOOR TO MANAS MAY BE OPENING FOR FRENCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001147

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (GORKOWSKI)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KG FR SP
SUBJECT: DOOR TO MANAS MAY BE OPENING FOR FRENCH

REF: A. BISHKEK 1125

B. BISHKEK 664

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Classified By: Ambassador Tatiana C. Gfoeller, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Following on an unsuccessful meeting
between the French Charge and Foreign Minister Sarbayev,
French Special Representative Thierry Mariani appears to have
tempted the Kyrgyz back to the Manas negotiating table with
the offer of a Paris visit for President Bakiyev and the
upgrading of the French mission to a full Embassy. The
French made a similar offer before, but Mariani appears
determined to make good on this one. The Spanish, on the
other hand, had yet another unsuccessful meeting with
Sarbayev, and their Ambassador is so spooked that he is
reportedly considering moving to Bishkek from Astana until
the matter is resolved. END SUMMARY.

There Should Be More to Our Relationship Than . . .
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2. (C) French Charge Jean-Pierre Godart called on the
Ambassador on October 20 to give a readout of his meeting on
a new Manas Agreement with Foreign Minister Sarbayev earlier
that day. Two days before, the Ambassador had urged an
apparently despondent Godart not to give up on regaining
access to Manas Transit Center, and to seek a meeting with
Sarbayev (ref A). Reporting back, Godart said that the
meeting had gone badly. The main part of the conversation
had consisted of Sarbayev complaining, inter alia, that the
Europeans do not respect the Kyrgyz, that they only value the
relationship because of Manas, and that they have never
tried, in spite of repeated Kyrgyz urgings, to broaden the
relationship beyond Manas. In short, Sarbayev's message was
that the French can say goodbye to Manas unless they are
prepared to make serious commitments to broadening the
relationship.


3. (C) On October 21, the Ambassador received a telephone
call from the Spanish Ambassador, based in Astana, who was on
the way to Bishkek for a meeting with the Foreign Minister.
The Spanish Ambassador asked whether the Kyrgyz would rubber
stamp a new agreement on the use of Manas. The Ambassador
replied that they certainly would not, and cautioned that the
Kyrgyz want to feel like partners, and not simply landlords.

Bakiyev to Paris, Or So They Promise
--------------


4. (C) Later on October 21, Thierry Mariani, France's
Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, called
on the Ambassador to give a readout on a meeting he had just
had with Foreign Minister Sarbayev. Godart had apparently
briefed him on the kind of reception to expect: Mariani said
with equanimity that he had listened to Sarbayev complain for
an hour and a half. When Sarbayev was done, Mariani said he
immediately offered a three point response: First, France
would invite President Bakiyev to Paris, and make sure that
he has at least an hour and a half meeting with President
Sarkozy. Second, France will upgrade its mission here to a
full Embassy, and third, France will station two economic
representatives here charged with finding ways to broaden the
French-Kyrgyz relationship.


5. (C) Mariani said that Sarbayev was shocked at the
proposal, although pleasantly so. He demurred on immediately
accepting it, saying that he needed to refer it up, Mariani
believed directly to the President. Apparently cautioning
against making empty promises, Sarbayev then showed Mariani a
memorandum of a meeting with Pierre Lellouche, Mariani,s
predecessor, who had never delivered on earlier similar
promises. (According to ref B, Lellouche said that he did

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raise a trip to Paris with Bakiyev.)


6. (C) Reflecting to the Ambassador on the missteps that
had taken the French to this dire situation, Mariani said
that the Kyrgyz have a point. Because of the lackadaisical
attitude of the French Foreign Ministry, the Kyrgyz have a
reasonable basis for believing that France does not take them
seriously. "We didn't have to get kicked out, and now it
will be more expensive to get back in." Mariani appeared
determined to deliver on the promises he had made Sarbayev,
and he was confident that he could do so. In addition to
being a majority-party member of the French National
Assembly, he intimated that he has close ties to President
Sarkozy.

Spanish Still Not There
--------------


7. (C) French Charge Godart informed the Ambassador on
October 22 that he had been given a readout by Spanish
Ambassador Alberto Cortez on his meeting with Sarbayev.
Apparently, it was the analog of the Charge's own meeting,
with Sarbayev delivering the message that Kyrgyzstan is not
interested in a one-dimensional relationship with Spain, and
Ambassador Cortez having nothing to offer in response.
Godart said that Cortez was very worried and had even
speculated that he may have to move to Bishkek until the
situation is resolved, spending one week a month in Astana.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Mariani clearly made a positive impression on FM
Sarbayev. If he delivers, the basis for a French return to
Manas may be established. The Spanish have shown as much
desire as the French to regain access to Manas, and they will
need to take steps to demonstrate both respect and a desire
to broaden the relationship in order to convince the Kyrgyz
to let them return.
GFOELLER