DOOR TO MANAS MAY BE OPENING FOR FRENCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001147 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (GORKOWSKI) E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KG FR SP SUBJECT: DOOR TO MANAS MAY BE OPENING FOR FRENCH REF: A. BISHKEK 1125 ¶B. BISHKEK 664 BISHKEK 00001147 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Tatiana C. Gfoeller, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Following on an unsuccessful meeting between the French Charge and Foreign Minister Sarbayev, French Special Representative Thierry Mariani appears to have tempted the Kyrgyz back to the Manas negotiating table with the offer of a Paris visit for President Bakiyev and the upgrading of the French mission to a full Embassy. The French made a similar offer before, but Mariani appears determined to make good on this one. The Spanish, on the other hand, had yet another unsuccessful meeting with Sarbayev, and their Ambassador is so spooked that he is reportedly considering moving to Bishkek from Astana until the matter is resolved. END SUMMARY. There Should Be More to Our Relationship Than . . . -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) French Charge Jean-Pierre Godart called on the Ambassador on October 20 to give a readout of his meeting on a new Manas Agreement with Foreign Minister Sarbayev earlier that day. Two days before, the Ambassador had urged an apparently despondent Godart not to give up on regaining access to Manas Transit Center, and to seek a meeting with Sarbayev (ref A). Reporting back, Godart said that the meeting had gone badly. The main part of the conversation had consisted of Sarbayev complaining, inter alia, that the Europeans do not respect the Kyrgyz, that they only value the relationship because of Manas, and that they have never tried, in spite of repeated Kyrgyz urgings, to broaden the relationship beyond Manas. In short, Sarbayev's message was that the French can say goodbye to Manas unless they are prepared to make serious commitments to broadening the relationship. ¶3. (C) On October 21, the Ambassador received a telephone call from the Spanish Ambassador, based in Astana, who was on the way to Bishkek for a meeting with the Foreign Minister. The Spanish Ambassador asked whether the Kyrgyz would rubber stamp a new agreement on the use of Manas. The Ambassador replied that they certainly would not, and cautioned that the Kyrgyz want to feel like partners, and not simply landlords. Bakiyev to Paris, Or So They Promise -------------- ¶4. (C) Later on October 21, Thierry Mariani, France's Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, called on the Ambassador to give a readout on a meeting he had just had with Foreign Minister Sarbayev. Godart had apparently briefed him on the kind of reception to expect: Mariani said with equanimity that he had listened to Sarbayev complain for an hour and a half. When Sarbayev was done, Mariani said he immediately offered a three point response: First, France would invite President Bakiyev to Paris, and make sure that he has at least an hour and a half meeting with President Sarkozy. Second, France will upgrade its mission here to a full Embassy, and third, France will station two economic representatives here charged with finding ways to broaden the French-Kyrgyz relationship. ¶5. (C) Mariani said that Sarbayev was shocked at the proposal, although pleasantly so. He demurred on immediately accepting it, saying that he needed to refer it up, Mariani believed directly to the President. Apparently cautioning against making empty promises, Sarbayev then showed Mariani a memorandum of a meeting with Pierre Lellouche, Mariani,s predecessor, who had never delivered on earlier similar promises. (According to ref B, Lellouche said that he did BISHKEK 00001147 002.2 OF 002 raise a trip to Paris with Bakiyev.) ¶6. (C) Reflecting to the Ambassador on the missteps that had taken the French to this dire situation, Mariani said that the Kyrgyz have a point. Because of the lackadaisical attitude of the French Foreign Ministry, the Kyrgyz have a reasonable basis for believing that France does not take them seriously. "We didn't have to get kicked out, and now it will be more expensive to get back in." Mariani appeared determined to deliver on the promises he had made Sarbayev, and he was confident that he could do so. In addition to being a majority-party member of the French National Assembly, he intimated that he has close ties to President Sarkozy. Spanish Still Not There -------------- ¶7. (C) French Charge Godart informed the Ambassador on October 22 that he had been given a readout by Spanish Ambassador Alberto Cortez on his meeting with Sarbayev. Apparently, it was the analog of the Charge's own meeting, with Sarbayev delivering the message that Kyrgyzstan is not interested in a one-dimensional relationship with Spain, and Ambassador Cortez having nothing to offer in response. Godart said that Cortez was very worried and had even speculated that he may have to move to Bishkek until the situation is resolved, spending one week a month in Astana. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Mariani clearly made a positive impression on FM Sarbayev. If he delivers, the basis for a French return to Manas may be established. The Spanish have shown as much desire as the French to regain access to Manas, and they will need to take steps to demonstrate both respect and a desire to broaden the relationship in order to convince the Kyrgyz to let them return. GFOELLER