FORMER KYRGYZ OFFICIALS PLAN "NEW OPPOSITION"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 000109 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KG SUBJECT: FORMER KYRGYZ OFFICIALS PLAN "NEW OPPOSITION" REF: A. BISHKEK 97 ¶B. BISHKEK 96 ¶C. BISHKEK 44 BISHKEK 00000109 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Ambassador Tatiana C. Gfoeller, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Former Deputy Prime Minister Ibraimova told us that she, former Chief of Staff Sadyrkulov, and other "like-minded individuals," both in and out of government, planned to form a "new opposition." Ibraimova said that despite fearing for her safety since she was dismissed in mid-January, she plans to make a public statement detailing the political and economic wrongdoings of the Bakiyev administration. She said that Bakiyev was planning early presidential elections, and that Bakiyev would use the Russian financial package to fund his re-election effort. End Summary. A New Opposition? -------------- ¶2. (C) Former Deputy Prime Minister Elmira Ibraimova approached an American employee of the Embassy on February 4 and expressed serious concerns about her personal safety. She requested to meet with the DCM, but then reconsidered, as she suspected she was under surveillance since her mid-January resignation, and she believed that her cell phone was being monitored. She also said that she planned to make a public statement in the next few days detailing the political and economic wrongdoings by the Bakiyev administration. ¶3. (C) Ibraimova is close to former Chief of Staff Medet Sadyrkulov. Prior to being appointed Deputy Prime Minister, Ibraimova had been the faction leader in Parliament of the ruling Ak Jol party. She and Sadyrkulov helped engineer the ouster of Speaker of Parliament Adakhan Madumarov in May ¶2008. Both Ibraimova and Sadyrkulov resigned their positions in January 2009. ¶4. (C) She said that there were many "like-minded people," both in and out of government, who felt that President Bakiyev and his family had "gone too far" in consolidating power and trying to control the economy. They believe that the Bakiyev family and administration are focused solely on personal gain, at the expense of the country. This group had decided to form a "new opposition," and they planned to "take action" against Bakiyev by starting demonstrations in Naryn, Talas, and Kemin. ¶5. (C) Ibraimova stated that this group was quite separate from "opposition leaders" Omurbek Tekebayev and Azimbek Beknazarov. She said that Tekebayev was viewed as incompetent, and he was now tainted because of the recent publication of pictures in Agym newspaper of a naked Tekebayev with a young lady. She claimed that Tekebayev's bodyguards had been bribed to place a camera in the room, and there was also a video of the encounter. She said that Beknazarov had tried to contact the group, but they had refused contact because they viewed Beknazarov as a provocateur. Early Presidential Elections? -------------- ¶6. (C) Ibraimova said that the recent personnel changes at the Kyrgyz White House, as well as the establishment of a Presidential Secretariat, were being done in preparation for early presidential elections. The Secretariat will act as a campaign headquarters for Bakiyev's re-election, and is headed by Oksana Malevannaya, who had years ago claimed to be the mistress of Sadyrkulov. She said that the White House was bringing in experienced "politoligists" from abroad, including "professionals" who had advised former President BISHKEK 00000109 002.2 OF 003 Akayev's "Alga Kyrgyzstan" party. Ibraimova said that it was possible that President Bakiyev would not stand for re-election, due to health problems, and his brother Janysh would run in his place. Elections would take place this summer, following Russia's payment in April of $450 million in grants and loans from the recently concluded financial deal with Moscow. This money would be used to guarantee the desired results. Inside the Bakiyev Family -------------- ¶7. (C) Ibraimova said that Sadyrkulov had a falling out with President Bakiyev's son Maxim a couple months ago, presumably over Maxim's excesses in trying to control the country's economy. This falling out, and the rise of influence of former Speaker Madumarov (currently the Security Council Secretary),led to Sadyrkulov's resignation. ¶8. (C) Ibraimova also detailed the state of relations, and competing interests, within the Bakiyev family. Bakiyev's brother Janysh had long held sway over the security apparatuses in the country, while Maxim was focused on business interests, including mobile phone operations, banking, construction, and other lucrative sectors. There was growing conflict between Janysh and Maxim, and Janysh (and presumably other family members) felt that Maxim was taking too much. There was concern in the family that the large grant being negotiated with Russia ($150 million, plus a $300 million soft loan) would disproportionately benefit Maxim's construction company businesses, as the government would use some of the money to build social housing. ¶9. (C) Approximately two months ago, she claimed, the Bakiyev family -- Bakiyev's brothers and sons, but not the President -- held a meeting where they agreed on a fairer split of assets and income. Essentially, Janysh broke Maxim, and the settlement was a victory for Janysh and those allied with him, such as Madumarov. Reaching Out and Cracking Down -------------- ¶10. (C) Ibraimova said that new Chief of Staff Usenov had been talking to the Chinese regarding up to $4 billion in assistance and investment in Kyrgyzstan. (Note: Usenov has had a long association with China, having led trade delegations there and buying buses from China when he was mayor of Bishkek. Usenov made a similar claim to the Ambassador. Ref B.) Ibraimova also alleged that Usenov was negotiating an exit strategy to China for Bakiyev, that he would have safe haven there should the U.S. "go after him" for closing the Base. ¶11. (C) Ibraimova reported that Madumarov held a meeting recently with the oblast governors at which he ordered the governors to "crack down" on the ethnic Uzbeks, and to remove them from government positions. The governors reportedly walked out of the meeting puzzled, wondering why they were being ordered to alienate a key electoral constituency in the South in the run-up to presidential elections. Moments later, Bakiyev gave the same order to the governors, using the same language as Madumarov, which Ibraimova suggested showed Madumarov's growing influence. Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) Admittedly, this is a one-source view, but Ibraimova has been in the center of the storm. She was co-leader of Bakiyev's Ak Jol party for the December 2007 parliamentary election campaign, she was the Ak Jol faction leader in Parliament, and she has been close to the inner workings of the Administration. In addition, what she says about early BISHKEK 00000109 003.2 OF 003 elections, use of the Russian money, and conflicts within the Bakiyev family is consistent with what we are hearing from other contacts. GFOELLER