GERMANY,S RIGHT WING NPD AND DVU FACE POOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 000967 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/06/2019 TAGS: GM PGOV PREL SUBJECT: GERMANY,S RIGHT WING NPD AND DVU FACE POOR PROSPECTS AT THE POLLS REF: A. LEIPZIG 15 ¶B. LEIPZIG 21 Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF STAN OTTO FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Crippled by financial scandals, leadership problems and right-wing political rivalries, the National Democratic Party (NPD) and German People's Union (DVU) have little chance of securing the five percent necessary to enter the next Bundestag after the parliamentary elections on September 27, 2009. However, both parties will seek to make inroads at local and state elections (REFTEL),especially in eastern Germany. During an election year marked by economic crisis and the electorate's general disenchantment with the major political parties, it remains to be seen how the NPD and DVU will fare in different regions. Their on-going struggle over the political soul of Germany,s right wing appears to have weakened them both. End summary. NATIONAL LEVEL: NO CHANCE; STATE: WHO KNOWS? -------------- ¶2. (U) Neither the DVU nor the NPD are expected to clear the five percent hurdle necessary to enter the German Bundestag after the next parliamentary elections. At the last parliamentary elections in 2005, the DVU and NPD only received 1.6 percent of the total vote. According to a July Infratest dimap poll, the NPD and DVU carry "little appeal" with the German electorate, with the exception of voters in Saxony. Nonetheless, both the DVU and NPD -- during a time of economic malaise -- aim to consolidate and expand their presence in the state parliaments in Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Saxony, and Thuringia. Currently, the NPD is represented by six members in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and by eight members in Saxony's state parliament. The DVU is represented by six members in the Brandenburg state parliament. The next state elections in Saxony and Thuringia will be held on August 30, 2009. State elections in Brandenburg will be held together with the parliamentary elections on September 27, 2009. ¶3. (U) NPD Party Chairman Udo Voigt's claims that the NPD's entry into the state parliaments of Saxony and Thuringia would help catapult the NPD over the five percent mark at the Brandenburg elections on September 27. This assertion is being questioned by right wing observers who point to an NPD-DVU power struggle as the main impediment to one of the two parties polling over five percent. According to the director of Brandenburg's Office for the Protection of the Constitution (OPC),Winfriede Schreiber, an additional impediment to electoral success for the DVU and NPD in Brandenburg is the low number of members in the NPD (300) and DVU (200). A July Infratest dimap poll places a combined vote of the NPD and DVU in Brandenburg at only three percent whereas in Saxony the NPD would score five percent and in Thuringia three percent. BATTLING FOR THE POLITICAL SOUL OF GERMANY'S RIGHT WING -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) The DVU and NPD remain locked in a battle for the political soul of Germany's right wing. Recent acrimony over the NPD's decision to renege on the "Germany Pact" (Deutschlandpakt) they concluded with he DVU in 2004 (where the parties decided not to run against each other) has led to further political divisions between the NPD and DVU. This strategic decision, designed by the NPD to take advantage of the DVU's weak standing in the Brandenburg polls and poor European Parliament election results (NOTE: the DVU only scored 0.4 percent; the NPD did not run. END NOTE),may have the effect of splitting the right wing vote to the electoral detriment of both parties, especially in Brandenburg. At the Potsdam launch of a campaign against right-wing extremism on July 30, Schreiber said the dissolution of the "Germany Pact" between the parties had "clearly weakened" the far right camp. At the same campaign launch, Volker Limburg, director of Saxony-Anhalt's OPC noted that right wing extremists in his state had failed to build the cross-state networks necessary to fight in September's federal and state elections. The trend is towards more isolated and regional right wing extremist groups, he said. COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) Reading between the political runes in a 'super' election year, it seems clear that Germany's right-wing BERLIN 00000967 002 OF 002 political parties will not achieve their ultimate objective of entering into Germany's parliament after the next national elections. The DVU and NPD will face an uphill struggle at state elections in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia, and if Germany's domestic intelligence agencies are to be believed, the DVU and NPD have little chance of achieving electoral success on August 30 (state elections in Saxony and Thuringia) and on September 27 (parliamentary elections and Brandenburg state elections). Financial scandals within the NPD still threaten the party's viability, whereas the DVU continues to benefit from its financial relationship with a Swedish millionaire who bankrolls the party's finances. The DVU and NDP are marginal actors in German politics with their support for slogans which emphasize "Germany for Germans." But their extreme actions vis-a-vis Germans with an immigration background and foreigners -- along with their extreme political views -- will continue to ensure that both parties remain in the media spotlight. End comment. Bradtke