GERMANY SUPPORTS EUMM BUT SEEKS REALISTIC GOALS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 000838

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2019
TAGS: MOPS OSCE PHUM PREL UN GG RS GM EU
SUBJECT: GERMANY SUPPORTS EUMM BUT SEEKS REALISTIC GOALS

Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR STAN OTTO FOR REASON
S 1.4 (c) AND (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Germany fully expects the EU Monitoring
Mission (EUMM) mandate in Georgia to be extended for a year,
despite some EU members' concerns that the mission was never
envisioned as the sole international mission in the country.
Although Germany supports extending the EUMM, some within the
MFA have strong reservations, and the MFA office responsible
for the region is shifting its focus away from Georgia --
where Berlin sees a "Cyprus situation" developing -- to
Central Asia. MFA and Chancellery contacts hope the U.S. is
prepared to enter into "strategic discussions" about our
mutual goals because Berlin sees little hope that the
Russians will suddenly become more tractable regarding
Georgia. While maintaining a strict non-recognition policy
regarding South Ossetia and Abkhazia, they stress the need to
look for areas of possible cooperation and to begin frank
discussion concerning what we hope to achieve in various
international fora. END SUMMARY.

EUMM SEEN AS USEFUL; ROLE FOR U.S.?


2. (C) Germany is pleased with the EU's decision to extend
the EUMM mandate for one year (until September 2010),but MFA
Deputy Division Head for the South Caucasus and Central Asia
Maria Gosse shared that some within the MFA were greatly
concerned by the reality on the ground in Georgia. Berlin
and the EU as a whole never envisioned the EUMM as the sole
international presence in Georgia. Moreover, given recent
violence in Georgia, some EU members and even some German
officials were hesitant to extend the mandate for an
additional year. The relationship between Berlin and Tbilisi
has not been a warm one in the past, and some MFA officials
suspect that Georgia was behind the July 21 attack on an EUMM
convoy.


3. (C) However, Berlin views the EUMM as useful in
preventing a flare-up in violence because "both sides of the
conflict support the mission." The Russians hope the EUMM
provides a check on "Saakashvili's erratic behavior," and the
Georgians can point to EUMM observations when the Russians
make claims concerning Georgian military aggression. Berlin
also is considering whether some kind of U.S. participation
in the EUMM would be helpful. Although Head of Recruitment
for the Center for International Peace Operations Behrendt
quickly pointed out that U.S. observers in direct contact
with Russian soldiers "may be a bad idea," he could envision
the U.S. in a support role for the mission. He indicated
that the MFA has not reached a decision on whether it
supports U.S. involvement.

SEEKING STRATEGIC DISCUSSIONS

4. (C) Although Germany continues to support the territorial
integrity of Georgia and maintains a strict non-recognition
policy regarding South Ossetia and Abkhazia, MFA and
Chancellery contacts stress that Russia will "never back down
from recognition" of the two breakaway provinces. Without
offering concrete suggestions for what "strategic
discussions" should look like, contacts identified the need
for a better understanding "among ourselves" for what we
hope to realistically achieve in Georgia. Berlin itself is
not unified in how useful some international fora, such as
the Geneva Talks, are for furthering our common goals in
Georgia. While the MFA saw the most recent round of the
Geneva Talks on July 1 as another attempt by Russia to weaken
the process, the Chancellery viewed the Abkhaz decision to
support the Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism as a
breakthrough that the Geneva Talks made possible. According
to the MFA, the Abkhaz also are eager to have the UN return
in some form to the region.


5. (C) Overall, the Chancellery and MFA judge that a
"Cyprus-like situation" is developing in Georgia, with each
side settling into their fixed, uncompromising positions.
Given the extremely small likelihood that the situation will
change, the MFA Division for the South Caucasus and Central
Asia is beginning to shift its focus from Georgia to Central
Asia, where future economic developments seem more promising.
Germany led the launch of an EU Central Asia policy when
Berlin held the EU presidency in 2007, and the MFA hopes that
Central Asia will once again be an EU priority.
Pollard