GERMAN VIEWS IN ADVANCE OF MAJOR ECONOMIES FORUM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 000741

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SUBJECT: GERMAN VIEWS IN ADVANCE OF MAJOR ECONOMIES FORUM

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REF: STATE 59852


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Germany,s delegation to the Major
Economies Forum (MEF) meeting in Mexico is concerned about
raising the prospect of a 2020-2030 midterm compliance window
in open session. The head of delegation also shared his
dwindling hopes of an agreement in Copenhagen. German
interlocutors insist that commitments by developed countries
are essential to bringing along the developing countries.
They also take issue with arguments comparing levels of
effort among Japan, the U.S., and the EU. Germany considers
developing countries, clear efforts beyond business as usual
emissions a prerequisite for additional financing. A senior
staff officer suggested using the G8 as a pulpit from which
to articulate U.S. commitments to emissions mitigation,
offering suggestions about a possible formulation. END
SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) On June 12, EMIN presented ref A points to Peter
Roesgen, Director for Infrastructure Policy (and top climate
advisor) in the Federal Chancellery. On June 17, EMIN also
presented the points to Environment State Secretary (Deputy
Minister) Matthias Machnig.

Concerns about raising 2020-2030 window in MEF open session


3. (SBU) Machnig expressed several times his concerns about
raising in the MEF open session the &very, very informal8
suggestion that he shared with the U.S. delegation about a
2020-2030 window for phased emissions reductions. He feared
that this would collapse the ambition of many states unless
it rigorously cascaded with realistic, clear, and ambitious
reductions after 2020. He said that for this approach to
have any chance, the proposal would need to be science-based
and lead to halving global emissions by 2050, with developed
country long-term goals of 80-90% reductions. Machnig said
it was his &gut feeling8 that it would be dangerous to have
a 2020-2030 argument in Mexico. (Comment: Days before our
meeting with Machnig, Roesgen observed that Minister
Gabriel,s suggestion about a staged approach on midterm
targets might be helpful. He said that the discussion on
this continued inside the government, but that it might allow
a mechanism to keep temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius. End
Comment.)

Growing doubts about an agreement in Copenhagen


4. (SBU) Noting that there would be no agreement at the
Conference of Parties (COP-15) without the U.S., Machnig
guessed that given the time remaining, an agreement is
unlikely. He indicated that, as a politician, he had never
seen an important compromise come through in five months, and
that following the meetings in Italy, that is all the time
that would be left. He worried that if the U.S. postpones
ambitious commitments, German and European industry and
society would lose incentives for the same.

The more we put on the table, the more we can ask for


5. (SBU) In a theme echoed by Roesgen about planned emissions
reductions by developed countries, Machnig said that &the
more we put on the table, the more we can ask for8 from
developing countries. He insisted that developed countries,
agreements must be underpinned with measurable, realistic,
and ambitious reduction numbers, without imposing additional
burdens on developing countries. He said that the developing
countries would wait for the U.S. and Europe. On financing,
Machnig stressed that developed countries would need to bring
money to the fund; he added that the U.S., planned emissions
trading system (ETS) could be a useful revenue source.
(Comment: He estimated that the community would require at
least USD 10 billion annually in financing. End Comment.)

Clarifying criticism of Japanese midterm targets


6. (SBU) Machnig sought to clarify his recent criticism about
the announced Japanese midterm emissions reduction targets.
He volunteered, &I said this for two reasons: one, because
it,s true and two, because if I say it about Japan, I don,t
have to say it about the US.8 He made clear that he wants a
&close bridge and understanding8 with the U.S.

Pushback on question of comparability of effort


7. (SBU) Asked about the question of the comparability of
effort between the U.S. and the EU (from a 2005 base),he
noted that the Japanese had suggested the same, with a 15%
level of effort. He claimed that if an international
agreement were concluded, the assumed EU level of effort of
13% below 2020 would actually be around 24%, far above both
the U.S. (Waxman-Markey targets) and Japan.

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Expectations of developing countries


8. (SBU) Referring to a gap in the MEF building blocks,
Machnig signaled the importance of strong expectations for
developing countries, with measurable, reportable, and
verifiable targets and national action plans that clearly
indicate how far they will go beyond business-as-usual. He
said that neither the German Parliament nor the U.S. Congress
would approve funding that does not exceed the national
action plans. He clarified that although the plans would be
quantified, they would remain aspirational.


9. (SBU) Asked about recent maximalist demands on the U.S. by
India, Roesgen said &they are aware that 40% is not
feasible--it's a negotiating position.8 He added, however,
that China and India are different in both their awareness of
climate impacts and their independent actions. He observed,
&India has a national action plan, but they are in a
different economic situation. It is tougher for them to get
going and they are more dependent on foreign assistance.8

Using the G8 as a pulpit


10. (SBU) In a separate conversation, Norbert Gorissen, the
office director responsible for German MEF preparation at the
Environment Ministry, suggested to Econoff that the G8
statement should have some formulation recognizing the
importance of mitigating climate change. He said,
&identifying numbers would not be necessary--just senior
level recognition8. He strongly recommended an expression
of a commitment to address climate change, noting that it
would be a timely demonstration of leadership. He suggested
that the U.S. clearly reinforce its accomplishments and plans
for the future. Gorissen said, &you may think that everyone
is aware of President Obama,s goals on climate, but they are
not.8


11. (SBU) He recommended also identifying the common ground
and, above all, avoiding the impression that the US is
fighting numerical goals. He said that the US does not need
to be defensive on numbers--that it was a mistake the US made
last year. He concluded, observing that--based on recent
meetings with NGOs--civil society is counting on the G8 for
meaningful signals, not the MEF, and that POTUS, involvement
would create an optimal opportunity. In a point underscored
by each of our interlocutors, Gorissen welcomed the
opportunity for POTUS to chair the MEF, and underscored its
importance as &one of the last opportunities to get the
leaders involved in the process8.

Welcoming change in the US approach


12. (SBU) Acknowledging the recent meeting between the
Chancellor and POTUS, Roesgen welcomed the &near u-turn8 on
U.S. climate policy. He noted that both sides share an
appreciation for the importance of adhering to science in
moving forward on climate negotiations.

German delegation


13. (SBU) Roesgen said that he would attend the MEF in
Mexico, and that scheduling problems would keep Environment
Minister Gabriel from attending, with Machnig taking the
delegation lead. (Comment: According to Environment Ministry
staff, Director General Urban Rid will attend, as will Office
Director Norbert Gorissen. However, Climate Negotiator
Karsten Sach will not attend. End Comment.)
Koenig