GERMAN VIEWS ON JUNE 15-16 EU GAERC MEETING

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 000708 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/12/2019 TAGS: PREL EUN XF CU AF PK ZL BM GM SUBJECT: GERMAN VIEWS ON JUNE 15-16 EU GAERC MEETING REF: A. JUNE 4 GIAUQUE E-MAIL ¶B. STATE 60334 Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR JEFF RATHKE. REASONS: 1.4 ( B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Germany believes that the recent successful elections in Lebanon, which appear to have been conducted without undue Syrian influence, open the door to the signing of the updated EU-Syria Association Agreement (AA),perhaps as early as September. According to the German MFA, only the UK and the Netherlands are opposed to moving ahead with the AA, assuming that Syria does not interfere in the formation of the new Lebanese government. While sharing U.S. concerns about Syrian conduct, especially as revealed in the latest IAEA report, Germany believes that the AA can be wielded to encourage better behavior from Damascus. Germany says it is "very disappointed" with the lack of progress on human rights and democratization during the first year of the EU's dialogue with Cuba, and that this will be reflected in the Council conclusions. On Afghanistan/Pakistan, the EU is expected to task High Rep Solana and the EU Commission to make recommendations on how the EU can do more to contribute to the stability of those two countries. On Bosnia, the Council conclusions note the necessity of "completing" the 5-plus-2 agenda before transitioning to a reinforced EU Special Representative, but hold out the hope that this is "within reach in the months ahead." Regarding the expected guilty verdict against Burma pro-democracy leader Suu Kyi, Germany is not convinced that additional sanctions -- which the UK is strongly pushing -- would be the right approach. END SUMMARY. DEMARCHE ¶2. (C) Post delivered ref A points on the June 15-16 EU General Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC) to MFA Deputy EU Correspondent Thomas Schieb on June 5 and followed up with him on June 12 to get his reaction. We also delivered the points separately to MFA Near East Division Director Boris Ruge to reinforce our concerns on Syria. MIDDLE EAST PEACE ¶3. (C) Schieb noted that the Council conclusions on this agenda item had just been finalized at the COREPER on June 11, but that the Political and Security Committee (PSC) would be prepared to amend them on June 15, just before the start of the GAERC meeting, to take into account the speech that Israeli PM Netanyahu is planning to give on Sunday. Schieb said the conclusions mention the importance of the two-state solution four separate times and specifically call on Israel to "immediately end settlement activities" in the West Bank, "including natural growth." The conclusions also call on Arab states to increase their financial and political assistance to the Palestinian Authority. ¶4. (C) Ruge confirmed that Germany agrees fully with the U.S. points on Israeli-Palestinian Peace, including that on the Quartet principles. He noted that Germany supports a regional approach to the peace process and wants to explore what contributions the EU can make toward this approach and toward building the Palestinian Authority's peace and justice institutions. SYRIA ¶5. (C) Schieb said there would also be separate Council conclusions congratulating Lebanon for its recent successful elections. In light of the positive outcome and the apparent lack of Syrian interference, Schieb said the updated EU-Syria Association Agreement (AA) was likely to be signed in September. He confirmed that Germany supported going forward with the AA. Drawing on ref A points, we noted the remaining serious issues with Syria and highlighted the conclusions of the recent IAEA report, which indicates that Syria was engaged in a clandestine effort to construct and operate a nuclear reactor at Al Kibar (ref B). We expressed our hope that Germany and the rest of the EU would condition their engagement with Syria on concrete action by Damascus. Schieb conceded that the revelations in the IAEA report were very worrying, but said Germany did not favor adding new specific pre-conditions for proceeding with the AA. Schieb said that Germany viewed the AA as a "political tool" to help encourage constructive change in Damascus. ¶6. (C) Ruge confirmed that 25 out of the 27 EU member states (i.e., all except the UK and The Netherlands) are in favor of moving forward with signing the AA if Syria does not create problems in Lebanon,s formation of a government. He thought the agreement would be signed sometime during the second half of the year. He said that for Germany, it was important that Syria has delivered on full-fledged recognition of Lebanon and diplomatic relations. Withholding the agreement, Ruge asserted, would not help the human rights situation in Syria. He said that in the AA, Syria agrees to engage with the EU on human rights and that human rights NGOs in Syria favor the agreement for this reason. Ruge also assessed that Syria would walk away from the AA if the political demands placed on it were too high. Ruge confirmed that Germany shares U.S. concerns and stressed that Germany has articulated these concerns to Syria "time and again." He said that Germany "expects Syria will be more constructive and will move in the right direction." CUBA ¶7. (C) Schieb said that Germany and most EU members are "very disappointed" with the progress Cuba has made on human rights and democratization since the EU reestablished its dialogue a year ago. Schieb said that while the ministers will decide in their annual review to continue the dialogue, the Council conclusions will be fairly critical and will specifically call on Cuba to release all political prisoners, to ensure access of international human rights organizations to prisons, and to ratify and implement human rights convenants it has signed. Schieb offered that it had not been "easy" to finalize these conclusions, with Germany and northern Europe generally advocating a harder line than the southern member states. AF/PAK ¶8. (C) Schieb explained that while the GAERC will issue Council conclusions on Afghanistan/Pakistan, no discussion is foreseen since this issue will be addressed at the EU foreign ministers' June 18 dinner on the margins of the EU Summit. The chief element in the conclusions will be a tasking to High Rep Solana and the Commission to come up with recommendations by October on how the EU can become more active in contributing to the political and economic stability of both countries. He indicated that a separate EU Summit declaration will confirm the EU's intent to send an observer mission to monitor the August 20 Afghan elections and welcome the deployment of European Gendarmerie Force to Afghanistan under the NATO Training Mission (NTM-A). WESTERN BALKANS ¶9. (C) Schieb said the Council conclusions will set in train a process of visa liberalization for those countries that meet prescribed requirements. The conclusions will also highlight the EU's support for the transition from the Office of the High Representative (OHR) to a reinforced EU Special Representative (EUSR) as soon as the 5-plus-2 agenda is "complete." Without setting a deadline, the conclusions say that the "transition could be within reach in the months ahead." BURMA ¶10. (C) According to Schieb, no Council conclusions are expected on Burma, but the UK is pressing for the ministers to be ready to react if a guilty verdict is rendered against pro-democracy leader Suu Kyi before or during the GAERC meeting. Noting that the UK is advocating additional EU sanctions should that happen, Schieb said Germany is not convinced that is the right approach, noting that existing sanctions have not been effective. Koenig