GERMAN PRESIDENT KOEHLER RE-ELECTED IN FIRST ROUND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 000638 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2019 TAGS: GM PGOV PREL PINR SUBJECT: GERMAN PRESIDENT KOEHLER RE-ELECTED IN FIRST ROUND WITH HELP OF FREE VOTERS, GREENS REF: BERLIN 596 Classified By: CDA JOHN M. KOENIG FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Germany's popular incumbent President Horst Koehler (CDU) -- a former managing director of the International Monetary Fund -- handily won re-election to a second five-year term, doing so in the first round of voting by the 1,224-member Federal Assembly. Winning with a 613 vote absolute majority -- the minimum necessary to win in the first found -- Koehler received support from the Free Democratic Party (FDP),the small Free Voters (FW),and unexpectedly from some Greens defectors. Koehler's first round victory gave Chancellor Angela Merkel an important boost as her CDU prepares for the parliamentary elections on September 27, 2009. Koehler's main rival for the post, former university president and political scientist Gesine Schwan (SPD),polled 503 votes in the secret ballot. The opposition Left Party's Peter Sodann was backed by 91 delegates and far-right candidate Frank Rennicke by four. Although the president holds little power under Germany's constitution, the election served to set the stage and political dynamics at the opening of the " super" election year, and offered clues to the possible outcome of the parliamentary elections. END SUMMARY. -------------- THE PEOPLE'S PRESIDENT -------------- ¶2. (C) Winning on May 23 in the first round of the federal presidential elections with a 613 vote absolute majority and with the support of the FDP, FW, and several Greens, President Koehler assumed office for another five-year term beginning on July 1. Against the backdrop of a "super" election year culminating in the parliamentary elections in September, Koehler noted that his re-election was not a harbinger of a CDU-FDP victory at the parliamentary elections in September. Koehler told ZDF television: "In my position as president, I do not see myself as part of a government coalition." Meanwhile, Chancellor Merkel noted that the presidential vote reflects future alliances "in so far as we and the FDP achieved our common goal." She praised Koehler's election saying he is "exactly the right president we need during these times of crisis." Not surprisingly, SPD Chairman Franz Muentefering argued that the "presidential vote has nothing to do with the national vote." ¶3. (C) The presidency, which carries moral authority but little real power, normally remains above the political fray. This time, against the backdrop of a "super" election year, this was clearly not going to be the case. In advance of the presidential election, the CDU feared that President Koehler would fail to obtain an absolute majority in the first round, which would have triggered a second and, possibly, third round of voting. This could have resulted in Gesine Schwan winning a slim majority with the votes of the Left Party. To Merkel's great relief, especially in the midst of an economic crisis, her CDU/CSU coalition -- with FDP and FW support -- prevailed in securing the votes necessary to re-elect Koehler, laying down another marker indicating a possible CDU/CSU-FDP government after the September parliamentary elections. Koehler's first round win could not have been achieved without the 10 FW delegates, who clearly voiced their support for Koehler before the election. With Koehler's victory and the FW's new role as a small kingmaker in German politics, FW Chairman Hubert Aiwanger told the media: "Since Saturday (May 23) we have arrived at the heart of national politics. We can well imagine to stay permanently on that stage." -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶4. (C) When Koehler was first elected in 2005, he was the only one of Germany's nine presidents since 1949 who had not spent his career in party politics. He assumed the mantle of power as a virtually unknown economic expert in his home country and was closely linked with big business. Ironically, his first term in office was marked by his condemnation of the excesses of capitalism, including a highly publicized attack claiming that the international financial markets had become a "monster." As a financial expert, Koehler currently enjoys added leverage as president -- despite his limited official powers -- but it remains to be seen whether he will rise to the challenge to explain to the German public in layman's terms what is happening to the German economy. If he can perform this role successfully, he will further enhance the German public's view of him as the people's president. BERLIN 00000638 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) Koehler's future agenda in office still remains uncertain. His passion for African and development issues remains undiminished. As he has in the past, after his victory President Koehler spoke in favor of changing the German presidential election system to that of a direct vote, a proposal that was quickly rejected by most political parties, including his own. Merkel quickly dismissed the idea arguing that the German state's political fabric would be changed forever by such a move. In domestic political terms, Koehler's narrow win can be viewed as an indication of how complex the coalition building process might be after the parliamentary elections. End comment. Koenig