MEDIA REACTION: NUCLEAR TEST, GITMO, AFPAK, IRAN, RUSSIA,

UNCLAS BERLIN 000631 STATE FOR INR/R/MR, EUR/PAPD, EUR/PPA, EUR/CE, INR/EUC, INR/P, SECDEF FOR USDP/ISA/DSAA, DIA FOR DC-4A VIENNA FOR CSBM, CSCE, PAA "PERISHABLE INFORMATION -- DO NOT SERVICE" E.0. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO GM US KN PK AF IR XF RS FR AE SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: NUCLEAR TEST, GITMO, AFPAK, IRAN, RUSSIA, FRANCE ¶1. Lead Stories Summary ¶2. North Korean Nuclear Test ¶3. Guantnamo Detainees ¶4. Pakistan, Afghanistan ¶5. Iran and the Middle East ¶6. EU-Russia Meeting ¶7. New French Base in UAE ¶1. Lead Stories Summary Editorials focused on North Korea's nuclear test and on government subsidies for Germany's farmers. The nuclear test is also the headline in the majority of papers. One national daily opens with a report on governmental support for German farmers. ZDF-TV's early evening newscast Heute and ARD-TV's early evening newscast Tagesschau opened with reports on North Korea's nuclear test. ¶2. North Korean Nuclear Test ARD-TV's Tagesthemen commentator judged: "The despot in Pyongyang has been provoking the world for much too long. What we erroneously assumed for too long about Iraq's dictator Saddam Hussein is certain in the case of Kim Jong-il: He has a nuclear threatening potential. The global outrage at North Korea's nuclear test is primarily evidence of our helplessness. Only Kim's allies, i.e. China's leaders, are able to topple him. Out of political calculations and out of fear of a mass exodus from the poor house of Asia, they are keeping the buffer state in North Korea stable. The world should no longer tolerate this. Beijing must banish the tyrant in Pyongyang to the history books." Deutschlandfunk aired the following commentary: "The activities of a gambler like Kim Jong-il can hardly be stopped with condemnations and sanctions. He wants international recognition and a dialogue at eye level with the UN secretary general or even more, with a high-ranking U.S. government representative. That is why the West is in a fix. It either condescends to talks with the dictator or Kim continues to provoke - sometimes with missiles and sometimes with bombs." "North Korea's Provocation" is the headline of a front-page editorial in Frankfurter Allgemeine. The daily opined: "With its second nuclear test within three years, the communist regime in North Korea brazenly challenged the international community again. This is not good news. Not only President Obama, who recently pronounced the vision of a nuclear weapons free world in Prague, but the international community as a whole are faced with the question of whether and how the development of nuclear weapons state can be prevented. Little can be achieved with offers for talks. After the first nuclear test two years ago, tough financial sanctions aimed at the country's leadership elite had an effect. Russia and China should now also be willing to impose such sanctions if talks are not to become a farce right from the start." Sueddeutsche opined under the headline: "Misery with North Korea," and noted: "As of yesterday, the ninth nuclear power in the world is North Korea. This is unpleasant but it is a fact. The earlier the international community becomes aware of this, the better. Negotiations and diplomatic pressure are the only remaining options. If not, the dictator and his nuclear physicists will continue unimpeded to fine-tune their disastrous weapons. But Pyongyang wants direct bilateral talks with the U.S. It does not want to be solely dependent on China.... This is a chance that Barack Obama should use. The Six-Party talks were an honorable attempt but, for the time being, they have failed. In the talks that were organized by China, Pyongyang claimed to give up its nuclear weapons. That is why this second nuclear test is an enormous embarrassment for Beijing. Statements that are negated by nuclear tests are useless. President Obama and his security team should now raise the question whether they can be more successful without China. A containment policy coordinated with Japan and South Korea, linked with direct talks with Pyongyang, would be an alternative to the current course. China has always obstructed direct sanctions towards North Korea. That is another reason for the ninth nuclear weapons state." Die Welt judged: "Kim Jong-il is provoking the international community and is about to overcall his cards. The message on Memorial Day is: If Barack Obama does not expand his policy of an extended hand to North Korea, he will not be able to achieve a diplomatic success in this part of the world. But Obama cannot sit back and take it. And that is why despite all conciliatory gestures, a preventive military strike is now on the political radar screen should Kim Jong-il continue his confrontational policy." In the view of Handelsblatt, "Barack Obama is in a dilemma. He is not any closer to his vision of a nuclear-free world, even though the talks on nuclear arsenals have resumed in Geneva. The United States must realize that it has to deal with more trouble spots apart from Afghanistan and Pakistan. To wait and see is no longer an option. Washington must react and it must do this in an unmistakable way. The United States has two possibilities: It either gives up the Six-Party talks and sits at the same table with North Korea and upgrades the regime or it influences China and Russia to talk plainly with Kim. Even Beijing should feel apprehensive in view of the unpredictable North Koreans. If the United States continues to show reservations, it could possibly be giving up its last trump card in the nuclear poker game, because a conciliatory attitude towards Pyongyang would hardly prompt Iran to voluntarily give up the development of nuclear weapons. The old carrot-and-stick policy on the 'axis of evil' no longer proves successful. Obama has no choice: He must demonstrate toughness irrespective of whether it fits his strategy or not." According to Financial Times Deutschland, "North Korea continues to stick to its successful business model: nuclear blackmail. But with yesterday's test, North Korea's dictator is provoking not only his ideological arch enemy in the United States and its President Barack Obama, but also China, Pyongyang's last ally, must feel snubbed. For China this test is a slap in the face. In the end, this is the only aspect which could create a ray of hope: Even the Chinese must increasingly wonder whether they can allow Pyongyang to do as before. One can safely describe the U.S. policy towards North Korea as a failure. As far as military matters are concerned, the regime has made itself unassailable with the nuclear bomb. But if Beijing now realizes that Pyongyang has not an open ear for Chinese requests and desires, then this is worth more than the resumption of the Six-Party talks. Even China can have no interest in an unpredictable small neighbor. Beijing has little interest in profound political changes in North Korea but a nuclear-free Korean peninsula would certainly make life safer for all neighbors." ¶3. Guantnamo Detainees Frankfurter Allgemeine commented on President Obama's and former Vice President Cheney's recent statements: "Although Obama is far more popular than Cheney, the situation is dangerous for Obama. If there is a new attack, America's right will say that it was the result of Obama's easygoing approach. In general, the President seems to be struggling to sell his nuanced policy as being one that is consistent to a broad political spectrum." Spiegel magazine described the Bush presidency as a "long shadow" for Obama, noting that "America's President, who started so full of drive, is in difficulties. A coalition of intelligence officers and Bush supporters has changed the sentiment in the country and Congress.... Fear is getting the upper hand again in the great battle over fear and civil courage." Focus magazine highlighted that "problems with Guantanamo and economic policies have put the brakes on Barack Obama's vigor" and added: "In the election campaign, Obama presented himself as Mr. Change, who advocated a new political beginning and a better America, which needs neither wars not torture prisons. He must now realize that things are not that easy." ¶4. Pakistan, Afghanistan Frankfurter Allgemeine commented: "After three weeks, the operation of the Pakistani forces is now in a critical phase... and must now fight the Taliban house to house.... Even if they succeed in driving out the Taliban, the victory will not be worth much if the number of civilian victims is too high." FT Deutschland's editorial under the headline "Last Chance for Afghanistan" remarked that "The U.S. change in strategy is also a challenge for Germany" and added: "The German government must provide more men and means to take what could be the last opportunity in Afghanistan. Despite the concerns of budget watch dogs, more money must be provided directly to the Afghans to build up a solid foundation. It might be unpleasant for politicians to debate Afghanistan prior to the German elections, but Berlin must respond to the U.S. U-turn and take more action so that the mission was not in vain." Under the headline "Helpless in Afghanistan," Die Welt remarked: "A strategic gap between the U.S. and its European allies is becoming obvious in Afghanistan. One side is considering handing responsibility over to the local authorities, and the other side is thinking of the Pakistani trouble spot." ¶5. Iran and the Middle East Under the headline "The Iranian Challenge," Frankfurter Allgemeine commented in a front-page editorial: "Iran is dreaming of dominating the Middle East. This dream, which is also the goal of the nuclear program, is a nightmare for the Arab countries.... The leaderships in Lebanon, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Bahrain and Yemen fear that Iran is infiltrating their societies. Iran underestimates the will and capacity of the Arab states to defend their sovereignty.... Maybe the Iranian challenge is the impetus the Arab world needs today." ¶6. EU-Russia Meeting Sueddeutsche Zeitung (5/23) opined: "The mood between the EU and Russia has improved and the time of confrontation is over, but a deep distrust and positions have remained that are almost as rigid as the frost during Russia's winter. The turn of Georgia and Ukraine to the West is a wound that still hurts the Russian president and his nation; and President Medvedev hardly leaves an opportunity unused to show this. The motto of the summit at this distant place was called 'dialogue of interests,' but the interests are as far apart as Brussels from Chabarovsk. Russia wants to keep its energy policy dominance, while the West wants to break it. But both sides have acknowledged that they need each other, even though they threaten each other with alternatives, again and again. Moscow and Brussels want to set up a strategic partnership but jealousy is too great to do this." Regional daily Bayerische Rundschau of Kulmbach (5/23) argued: "This summit clearly showed who has more pull: Russia. The country that is rich in natural resources does not want to rule out that there will be supply bottlenecks in the future. At the latest, alarm bells should now be ringing in Brussels. Business relations are built on trust and cannot function on such a basis. It is intolerable that contracts are simply ignored." Regional daily Mittelbayerische Zeitung of Regensburg opined: "The EU's dependency on Russian gas has grown over the years. It is worrying that, by 2020, almost 70 percent of gas supplies for Europe come from this vast empire. That is why the EU has only one choice: to concentrate energy policies and to consistently push for the construction of the alternative Nabucco pipeline. Strict energy savings and the use of renewable energy resources must become even more important. This is the only chance for the EU to counter Moscow's [policy]." ¶7. New French Base in UAE Frankfurter Allgemeine reported under the headline: "From Black Africa to the Gulf," that "President Sarkozy will open a military base in the United Arab Emirates. His advisor considers this a minor geo-political revolution. With the opening of a military base in the United Arab Emirates this Tuesday, French President Sarkozy strengthens the French claim to intensify its influence as a force of stability in the Persian Gulf. About 500 French soldiers from the air force, the navy, and the armed forces will be permanently deployed in the Emirates. The French base...represents the beginning of an important new direction in [France's] security policy. France is increasingly turning away from its former African 'backyard' and sees its security interests to be better represented in the Gulf region. It is the first time since its colonial era that France is opening a military base outside of Europe. Sarkozy's personal military chief of staff, Edouard Guillaud, is speaking of a 'minor geo-political revolution.' For large parts of black Africa, a withdrawal of the former colonial power is now in the offing. France wants to get rid of its duty to intervene in internal conflicts. At the same time, it is accepting new intervention duties in the Persian Gulf. Sarkozy said: 'It is a signal that is directed to everyone that France will contribute to stability in this part of the world,' but, at the same time, he did not mention the threat emanating from Iran's nuclear potential. With the new military base at the Straits of Hormuz, where 40 percent of the globally transported crude oil passes, France is now moving to the front in case the conflict with Iran escalates." KOENIG