MEDIA REACTION: IRAN, FINANCE, ISRAEL, NORTH KOREA

UNCLAS BERLIN 000339 STATE FOR INR/R/MR, EUR/PAPD, EUR/PPA, EUR/CE, INR/EUC, INR/P, SECDEF FOR USDP/ISA/DSAA, DIA FOR DC-4A VIENNA FOR CSBM, CSCE, PAA "PERISHABLE INFORMATION -- DO NOT SERVICE" E.0. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO GM US IS KN SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: IRAN, FINANCE, ISRAEL, NORTH KOREA ¶1. Lead Stories Summary ¶2. POTUS Nowruz Message to Iran ¶3. Bank Stabilization Plan ¶4. AIG Bonus Payments ¶5. Formation of New Israeli Government ¶6. North Korean Satellite Launch ¶1. Lead Stories Summary Editorials focused on the memorial service for the victims of the school shootout in Winnenden and the conflict between the coalition parties. The papers opened with various stories ranging from the problems in the coalition to Chancellor Merkel's TV interview and the financial crisis. ZDF-TV's early evening newscast Heute opened with a story on the conflict in the coalition on the rescue of Opel, while ARD-TV's early evening newscast Tagesschau opened with a story on CSU leader Seehofer's remark that the SPD should leave the coalition if it does not like it any longer. ¶2. POTUS Nowruz Message to Iran Weekend media continued to carry lengthy reports and editorials on President Obama's video message to Iran. Lead headlines on Saturday: "Obama offers Tehran new beginning" (Frankfurter Allgemeine),"Change of Course in U.S. Foreign Policy: Obama extends hand to Tehran" (Sueddeutsche). ARD-TV's Tagesschau reported: "Iranians give themselves flowers for Nowruz, and a bunch of surprises came from the U.S.... President Obama abolished recent preconditions for talks between Washington and Tehran. He offered a new policy of dtente based on the principle of mutual respect. No more threats - the U.S. is extending its hand to the former archenemy in Tehran." The report showed Chancellor Merkel saying: "I believe President Obama's message reflects exactly what the European always wanted: that an offer be made to Iran, which - that's all I can say - will hopefully be accepted." Frankfurter Allgemeine commented: "When Washington says it is ready to allow the Islamic Republic to take its rightful place in the international community, it means indirectly that it has abandoned the goal of regime change, which the Bush government pursued for years. The explicit will to reach a diplomatic solution is only a renewal of a maxim Bush had previously used, but out of Obama's mouth it rather sounds like a rejection of military means. By using the words of mutual respect, the President picks up Ahmadinejad's wording and reaches out to the Iranian rival. However, public diplomacy can also tie you down and reduce leeway for later negotiations. Logically, the Iranians responded to Obama's statement that one should abandon threats by calling for lifting sanctions. The question of whether it is clever to rush forward before the Iranian presidential elections must be raised." Sueddeutsche noted in a feature article: "The U.S. government's initiative shows that Barack Obama is serious about his announcements.... The Iranians will not give up the image of an old foe easily, but Tehran at least responded in a way that was moderately positive." The paper added in an editorial: "It is really innovative to see the crisis states of Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan as one regional problem.... It respects the fact that there will not be an isolated solution.... The American offer to Iran is the most spectacular part of the new strategy. However, it is also particularly risky. Not many results can be expected prior to the Iranian presidential elections in June.... If Iran rejects this charm offensive, it will be further morally isolated. However, this strategy does not help much concerning the real conflicts between the U.S. and Iran, namely the nuclear program, sanctions, regional influence, support for Hezbollah and Hamas. It will take a long time to resolve these problems, which have been developing for three decades. The change in tone will have to, however, bring about concessions in the matter." Die Welt commented under the headline "The mullahs have the choice": "Barack Obama's video message to Iran on Nowruz was a remarkable gesture and a clever move. The President's conciliatory words not just to the people of Iran, but also to its leadership, are astonishing. And it is clever because he seeks rapprochement not just behind closed doors, but gives Iranians the opportunity to get their own impression of the new U.S. President.... So far we do not have the sense that the leadership in Tehran has grasped the historic opportunity. The mullahs should not be under any illusion: if they reject the extended hand, Obama has other options on the table." Der Tagesspiegel opined: "Barack Obama has paved the way for direct talks... but the leadership in Tehran acts as if it does not get the message. They reproach him with the mistakes his predecessor made in the past and require action, as if his words were not significant given the recent situation. The Iranian energy minister announces that the nuclear plant in Bushehr will begin operating this year. This is a serious emergency! ... America's new strategy is being ignored. Will this be better once Iran holds elections? Even if Ahmadinejad is not reelected, the nuclear program will remain, and with it the danger." Frankfurter Rundschau analyzed: "Obama's video marks a good beginning. The U.S. President promises an end to Iran's isolation and he would like the country to take its place as a respected member in the international community. Tehran must now make its choice between continuing its provocative approach to missiles and centrifuges and acting more cooperatively and transparent in the future. Iran's nuclear program is not just a thorn in the side of the U.S., Europe, and Israel. Almost all Arab countries are criticizing Iran's hegemonic ambitions, accusing Tehran of sponsoring radical forces everywhere. And they are preparing to build nuclear plants because they fear a nuclear arms race. However, Obama's initiative also requires the U.S. to change its policy considerably. Demonizing Iran as a member of an axis of evil was only the last chapter in a long list of political mistakes." Berliner Zeitung's editorial said: "Obama's plan for the entire region is risky. He could fail - due to his own difficulties or to Iranian intransigence. However, in the eyes of the new U.S. administration, it is the only way to reach the most important goal which is withdrawal from Afghanistan. A country will be left behind that is not a democratic one, where violence might further erupt and which could bring fundamentalists into power. But it will no longer be an occupied country - and none that will be democratized from outside. This is the most important and most pleasant difference between Bush and Obama." ¶3. Bank Stabilization Plan Handelsblatt judged in a front-page editorial: "After a tormenting discussion, the United States is finally trying to embark upon the only reasonable path to overcome the financial crisis. With taxpayers' money, the government wants to free the banking system from toxic assets and is now also striving for waterproof regulations. For U.S. banks, this is probably the last chance to avoid a downward spiral into bankruptcy. But embattled Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner also needs this urgent success in order to safeguard his political survival. That is why both sides are dependent on cooperation in view of this intriguing approach: the state is now joining forces with private investors and offers them cheap money to allow them to buy these toxic assets from banks.... It is now up to President Obama to rein in the populists and create reliable framework conditions. That is why the idea is right to link the bank stabilization plan to tougher regulation of hedge funds. This demonstrates to the voters and the lawmakers in Congress that the era of uncontrolled business deals in a shadow world is over. At the same time the global financial sector knows before the G-20 summit what it must expect. But this will only work if Obama uses his full authority and makes clear that these regulations will be implemented." Berliner Zeitung argued under the headline: "Too Much Fear of Inflation," that "banks have money but don't want to lend, because they know that every loan means taking a risk of not being paid back. And this is increasingly likely in times of crises. So they take a restrained attitude and must now face accusations of being risk-averse. The consequence is that there is no inflation, but also no economic recovery. That is the problem that the central banks must now resolve. Those who are now saying that the expansive policy of central banks could lead to inflation some day in the future, resemble those who do not call the fire brigade out of fear that the water that is used to extinguish the fire could damage the building." According to Sueddeutsche Zeitung, "the most recent figures on the record U.S. debt must create unease not only in the U.S. but in the whole world. These billions per se are not so much worrying, but what is really alarming is the looming political consequences. America could miss the opportunity that President Obama is promising: to re-invent itself but first to modernize it such an extent that the U.S. leading role in the world could be safeguarded for a lengthy period of time. The president is in a dilemma: his reforms are urgently necessary, but his budget experts are also right. America cannot afford the debt that Obama wants to run up. In order to finance his reform program, he can't get around asking Americans to make even more sacrifices and recanting his promised tax relief. In order to do this, he needs strength, but despite his intrepid nature, he does not have enough. This does not bode well for the promised reforms." Saturday's Sueddeutsche carried an editorial headlined: "Europe's Creditworthiness Increasing" and wrote: On the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Wall of all things, another old truth is now overtaken by reality--that America will always point a path out of a crisis. In this crisis, the new U.S. government is acting in such a discouraging way that the Europeans feel forced to do what they have never done before, to move ahead on their own. All of a sudden, the EU is united in its crisis policy. As a matter of fact, Europe has every reason to act in a self-confident and strong way. This strength has even increased because the EU succeeded in getting its act together. The EU will be able to lead in this crisis because it has gained valuable experience: each nation had to realize that all of them could be well off only if all sides involved were willing to make concessions. There is no longer any reason why the largest economic region in the world should not lead if the new rules of the game for the global economic and financial system are rewritten." ¶4. AIG Bonus Payments Die Welt noted: "President Obama is convinced to do the only right thing by doubling U.S. debt. But now his policy is beginning to see its first cracks. Various camps are now forming; they have not yet created predetermined breaking points, but soon a few could develop. Barack Obama gave his word that he did not deceive the people with respect to the AIG bonus payments. But if someone refuted his statements, while the emotions are still boiling high, the suspicious left-wing liberals would turn away from him. And Republicans who still support him would come under great pressure, while Democrats who envy Obama would get a fresh impetus. And Hillary Clinton's new circle of friends would see to it in the Senate that the president does exactly what the secretary of state considers right." Tagesspiegel argued: "It seems that Barack Obama seems to make more opponents day by day: the Europeans reject his demand to spend more on the economy; the Republicans voted against his bailout package. Some Democrats rejected his request not to inflate the budget even more with million dollar gifts for their constituencies. And in foreign policy he is also finding his limits. Is America and the rest of the world witnessing how a presidency that came to power with so much hope, is now being derailed? Nine weeks after coming to office, the initial euphoria has given way to an idea of what could go wrong. But it is still too early to say that Obama has failed. Yes, it is right. Many people are feeling weak in their knees, in America and elsewhere. But what is the reason? Obama or the general helplessness? Many people are only now beginning to realize the depth of the crisis. In three to four months, we will be able to realize whether Obama's recipes will help. If they do, he will be a hero; if not, we can only hope for God's help." Financial Times Deutschland observed: "It is understandable that the bonus payments for AIG officials are making the people angry. This is particularly so when the managers create the public impression that they, like the ones of AIG, have damaged their company. But an accountable politician should never give in to the temptation to join such outrage or even spearhead it. But a majority of U.S. lawmakers did exactly this, and President Obama verbally joined the people's anger. For days and weeks, politicians have been talking about improper bonus payments, because they have discovered this is a good means of distracting attention from their own deficiencies." Regional daily Suedwest Presse of Ulm had this to say: "President Obama wants to cash in on the bonus payments for managers by levying a special tax. This promises political profits but has a few flaws: AIG is unprecedented in its size. There is no doubt that bonus payments to insolvent companies is a questionable idea. The only explanation is that, when the contracts were concluded, no one ever expected the company to run up such excessive losses. But it would be misguiding to ban bonus payments. A bonus is an award for a success. The bonus is good if the referenced size on which it has an effect is well chosen. And it will also be good if it goes down in bad times." ¶5. Formation of New Israeli Government Regional daily Nuernberger Zeitung opined: "Netanyahu's message to Livni's Kadima Party and Barak's Labor Party is clear: look, I could also cooperate with others, but I want to form a coalition with you. Israel's President Peres is likely to have approved the extension of the deadline, too. After the murderous mission in the Gaza Strip, which has deeply divided Israel's society, the country now needs a government of national unity. In addition, a right-wing coalition government would lead the country into isolation with respect to foreign policy. Obama's peaceful tones towards Tehran and Damascus are also signaling a global policy spring which Israel cannot ignore." ¶6. North Korean Satellite Launch Frankfurter Allgemeine judged: "With its attitude, North Korea is spoiling its chances to take advantage of political options. Now the regime is challenging the region with the announcement that it plans to launch a satellite. It is also cutting the links from which it profited so much over the past years: the exchange of goods and services along the border to South Korea. Now Pyongyang has obviously decided to use the Kaesong industrial complex as a means of pressure against Seoul and also towards Washington. If Kim Jong-il and/or his advisors had any sense of reality, they must realize that Kaesung's closure would cost South Korean investors a lot of money, but for the North Korean economy it could be the knock-out." KOENIG