GERMAN VIEWS ON THE MARCH 16-17 EU GAERC MEETING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 000303 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2019 TAGS: PREL IR PGOV GM BO UP MD SU GZ IS SUBJECT: GERMAN VIEWS ON THE MARCH 16-17 EU GAERC MEETING REF: A. 3/16 GIAUQUE E-MAIL ¶B. BERLIN 291 ¶C. BERLIN 301 ¶D. BERLIN 298 Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR JEFF RATHKE. REASONS: 1.4 ( B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Germany expects a full agenda at the EU General Affairs and External Relations (GAERC) next week, with extensive discussion of the implications of the economic crisis on the eastern neighbors, recent developments in Sudan, Belarus, and the Western Balkans. Germany is highly concerned that Ukraine especially is facing an unstable political system due to the economic crisis, but is uncertain how the EU could help. On Sudan, Germany does not expect the EU to issue another statement in the near future. Germany shares our concerns about recent backsliding in Bosnia & Herzegovina, and is engaged regularly with Bosnian leaders at the highest level to press them to fulfill the "Five Plus Two Agenda" (Ref B). Germany also expects Belarus to consume significant time during the GAERC as the EU is having trouble reaching a consensus on how to handle the sanctions regime writ large (Ref C). END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Post delivered ref A points on the March 16-17 EU GAERC to Deputy Correspondent Thomas Schieb and followed up with him March 13 to get his reactions. Post also delivered the points to the Chancellery and followed up with individual MFA offices to reinforce the message and to get a fuller read-out. See ref B for the readout on Bosnia and ref C for the reaction to our points on Belarus. GROWING GAERC AGENDA ¶3. (C) Schieb said that the agenda for the March 16-17 EU GAERC was getting longer and longer every day, with the following issues now scheduled for discussion: Belarus, Western Balkans, Sudan, transatlantic relations and the Middle East. The last two topics are to be discussed over lunch. He said that conclusions on Afghanistan would also be adopted, but without discussion. Those conclusions will address, among other things, the deployment of an EU observer mission for the Afghan presidential elections in August and the strengthening of the EU police mission (EUPOL). POLITICAL DIRECTORS TO DISCUSS UKRAINE/MOLDOVA AND SUDAN ¶4. (C) Schieb noted that political directors would meet separately, on the margins of the GAERC, to discuss two further issues: 1) the political and security implications of the economic crisis on the eastern neighbors (especially Ukraine and Moldova) and 2) the latest developments in Sudan. On Ukraine, Schieb said Germany was "very concerned" about the domestic political situation and feared that there was a very real possibility of a collapse of the state. He said Germany did not have any particular ideas about how the EU could be helpful, but thought it was important to discuss in any case. On Sudan, Schieb said that Germany agreed with the U.S. evaluation of the situation and also did not believe there was any justification for a deferral of action by the International Criminal Court (ICC). He noted that the EU had already issued two recent statements on Sudan -- one after the arrest warrant was issued and the other after the expulsion of the 13 international humanitarian organizations -- and was not expecting to issue another one at this point. MIDDLE EAST ¶5. (C) Schieb said that the discussion of the Middle East would be led off by a briefing by High Rep Solana, the Commission and the Czech EU presidency on their latest contacts in the region. He expected that foreign ministers would focus on Gaza and the political situation in Israel with the formation of a new government. Schieb said Germany fully subscribed to the U.S. points on maintaining the Quartet as the preeminent mechanism for coordinating international diplomatic efforts. IRAN ¶6. (C) According to Schieb, Iran is not on the GAERC agenda. We passed the U.S. points to the MFA Iran desk, who told us that they reinforced Treasury Acting A/S Glaser's March 3 presentation on Iranian entities of concern in Brussels. The desk officer noted that the EU-4 continues to lobby with BERLIN 00000303 002 OF 002 dissenting countries unwilling to move the designation question forward, and encouraged the U.S. to do the same. He added that once the U.S.'s policy review is complete, it is imperative that the U.S. send a clear message to the EU to help push the message forward. (Additional details in Ref D.) TRANSNISTRIA ¶7. (C) Schieb indicated that Transnistria is also not on the GAERC agenda, but the deputy head of the MFA division responsible for Moldova agreed that the 5 plus 2 format was the best for seeking a solution for the frozen conflict. However, he indicated that MFA saw "transparent 2 plus 1 talks" as acceptable, especially if they assisted the resumption of 5 plus 2 talks. German officials look forward to working more closely on this issue with the new Administration. Koenig