GERMANY HARDENING ITS LINE ON CLUSTER MUNITIONS;

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 000293

STATE FOR KATHERINE BAKER, SHO MORIMOTO AND DAVID SALVO
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2019
TAGS: MOPS PARM PREL NATO GM
SUBJECT: GERMANY HARDENING ITS LINE ON CLUSTER MUNITIONS;
PESSIMISTIC ABOUT CCW NEGOTIATIONS

REF: 08 BERLIN 1609

Classified By: DEPUTY POLITICAL COUNSELOR STAN OTTO. REASONS: 1.4 (B) A
ND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Cluster munitions (CM) experts at the MFA are
pessimistic about the chances for success at the upcoming CCW
meetings on the issue in Geneva, and indicated a hardening of
Germany's stance in the negotiations. Contacts emphasized
that Germany would most likely only support a second CM
treaty if its definition for CM is the same as in the Oslo
Agreement, and if it provides for an immediate result, such
as ending the transfer of banned types of CM. The countries
of real concern remain Russia, China, and India. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) POLOFF met with Burkhard Ducoffre, CM expert in the
MFA's Conventional Arms Control Division, on March 5 to
discuss Germany's thoughts on the CM debate during the recent
meetings at the Convention on Conventional Weapons (CCW) in
Geneva. Ducoffre indicated that the chances for success this
year at the CCW are likely slim, saying that Germany has
"pretty low expectations" for the next Geneva meetings.
Ducoffre noted that a lot of time was lost under Danish
leadership and, despite the Argentine Ambassador,s "fresh
perspective," it is most likely "not manageable" to complete
a CM treaty at the CCW in the remaining four meeting days in
April. He emphasized that there has been "little movement"
from very difficult partners such as -- according to Ducoffre
-- Russia, China, and India.


3. (C) During the discussion, it became clear that the German
position on CM has hardened since November. When asked for
further details, Ducoffre noted that on December 4 the German
Bundestag passed a motion urging the GoG to quickly ratify
the Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM, the so-called "Oslo
Agreement"). Ducoffre noted that a "legal protocol allowing
nations (party to the agreement) to continue using the types
of cluster munitions used in Lebanon is now a no-go." He
went on to emphasize that if the MFA delivered a second
(CCW-developed) CM treaty to the Bundestag, gaining
ratification would be difficult. One with "weaker standards
and differing definitions" would almost certainly be
rejected, he stated, although he does believe a treaty with a
"long phase-out period" could be acceptable. He noted that
the Bundesrat debated the issue March 6, and the Oslo
Agreement is expected to gain approval from the Bundestag
"perhaps before the end of the month."


4. (C) Ducoffre recommended that it might be best to abandon
the effort to negotiate a separate CM agreement in the CCW
rather than having a long, drawn-out, and ultimately
unsuccessful process. Such a failure could permanently
damage the CCW and the UN as an arms control / disarmament
body. He also said the NGOs have opted to keep Oslo as the
standard and to focus on pushing countries to adopt "national
standards" (similar to what the U.S. has done). Oslo should
be the "moral standard" Ducoffre said, referring to the
NGOs, stated opinion. Ducoffre indicated that Germany --
and other countries party to Oslo -- considered just "keeping
quiet" while the others at the CCW try to find common
language, but he said, that would be "untenable." Ducoffre
did emphasize that most countries -- Germany included -- are
pleased with the U.S. 2008 policy revisions, but there "deep
doubts" remain about Russia and China, and India, and how
they might use their CM arsenal in the future.


5. (C) Pressed about Germany's bottom line at the CCW,
Ducoffre replied that the "definition for cluster munitions
must equal to that of Oslo." He also emphasized that there
would need to be "some sort of an immediate effect from the
CCW agreement, such as immediately ending the transfer of
banned types of cluster munitions." He added that using the
Oslo definition for CM would not mean U.S.-manufactured CM
could not be used, as that could be addressed in Article IV
of the proposed CCW agreement.


6. (U) Ducoffre mentioned that Berlin would be hosting a
thematic conference on CM destruction (Article III of the
Oslo Agreement) on June 25-26. Only Oslo signatory states
will be invited.
Koenig