A REVITALIZED NUCLEAR INDUSTRY MAKES A STRONG CASE FOR

UNCLAS BERLIN 000209 SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ENRG EPET ETRD PREL GM RS TU UP SUBJECT: A REVITALIZED NUCLEAR INDUSTRY MAKES A STRONG CASE FOR NUCLEAR POWER IN GERMANY ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Germany's current policy to phase out nuclear power by 2021 is coming under fire from leaders of the CDU/CSU and FDP, while Germany's nuclear industry is increasingly confident of winning an indefinite reprieve from the ban should a conservative/liberal coalition form the next government. German nuclear power proponents see themselves as part of a worldwide trend, as the economic downturn, scarcity of fossil fuels and the threat of global warming make nuclear power a more attractive option to secure the nation's energy supply. End Summary. Growing Political Support for Nuclear Power -------------- ¶2. (U) Nuclear reactors currently provide 22 percent of Germany's energy. Germany's current nuclear policy calls for the phasing out of nuclear power by 2021. Chancellor Merkel has dismissed this policy as "unreasonable." Werner Marnette, a member of the Chancellor's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Party and a Minister in the state of Schleswig-Holstein on February 11 called for the retention of nuclear power plants in his state, saying that "it is essential that we allow our three nuclear plants to keep running or we won't have enough energy." Three of Germany's 17 nuclear plants are in Schleswig-Holstein. ¶3. (U) Taking their cue from developments in other countries, growing numbers of politicians from the CDU, its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU),and the Free Democratic Party (FDP),have in recent weeks begun to call openly for a reassessment of Germany's nuclear power policy. They point to Sweden's recent decision to reverse its ban and allow the construction of new nuclear power plants as part of its climate protection package. Speaking on 5 February, CDU spokesman Ronald Pofalla welcomed the move, stating "This is a clear signal that nuclear energy is still necessary as part of a broadly based mixture of energy resources." Poffala went on to criticize the SPD for "no longer being up-to-date with its unconditional commitment to a nuclear phase-out policy and meanwhile also being completely isolated internationally." Earlier, Deputy Chairwoman of the CDU/CSU Bundestag Group Katherina Reiche told the press that "if European countries are planning the construction of new plants, Germany must not stand apart." Putting Opponents on the Defensive -------------- ¶4. (U) In response, Environmental Minister Gabriel (SPD) claimed that he and his party are "not afraid" to make nuclear power an issue in the upcoming elections. Gabriel dismissed calls for an extension of Germany's nuclear plants or the construction of new ones. Arguing that nuclear power is not practical for Germany in the absence of a permanent disposal site for nuclear waste, he stated "we have to look for suitable sites throughout Germany." (NB. Gabriel is a former Minister President of Lower Saxony the site currently favored by industry and science for permanent disposal of nuclear Germany's nuclear waste.) Greens Party co-Chair Cem Ozdemir also dismissed any extension of the lifetimes of existing nuclear power plants, saying that such a move would only serve the interests of the operators and not the consumers. The Left Party issued its own statement calling the construction of new reactors "completely uneconomical" as the technology is "not manageable." Proponents Take Their Cue from the Industry -------------- ¶5. (SBU) On 5 February, Econoff attended the annual Winter Meeting of the Atom Forum, the German nuclear industry's lobbying group. In his opening remarks, Atom Forum President Walter Hohlefelder, a member of the Board of E.On, listed a series of arguments in favor of nuclear power for Germany. --Nuclear Energy will prove necessary for Germany's recovery from the current economic crisis, as it will provide steady, reliable power to the economy at no extra expense to the taxpayers. --Germany does not have a reliable supply of natural gas because of its problematic supply relationship with Russia. --This has compelled Germany to begin thinking actively about alternatives to natural gas. --Nuclear power is not only more reliable than natural gas, it has no CO2 emissions and will help Germany meet its emissions targets while keeping energy prices lower. --Current energy prices will start to increase after the end of the recession. --The current German policy of phasing out nuclear power is "unrealistic," as Germany will not be able to find the resources to replace the 22 percent of electricity generated by nuclear plants. --While the nuclear industry has no conflict with renewable energy, Germany cannot restrict its sources of supply and must use all sources available, including nuclear. --Popular opinion in Germany has shifted, with 58 percent of respondents in current polls favoring the retention of nuclear power plants. --While the storage of nuclear waste is the "Achilles heel" of the industry, it is not a "technical problem" but rather a "political problem," as the industry already has workable processes. --In coming years, Germany will only become more reliant on coal if it does not retain its nuclear plants. Without nuclear power, Germany would currently be using an additional 150 million tons of coal per year. --Germany plans to put 5 million electric cars on the road by 2030, which must have a clean source of power. This will cause a huge surge in demand for electric power. --Nuclear power is on the increase worldwide, with 68 plants in planning and construction, including 26 new projects slated for the U.S. --German companies are constructing many of these plants. It makes no sense for them to build plants outside of Germany while being denied the opportunity to build inside. Views of a German Insider -------------- ¶6. (SBU) On 4 February Econoff met with Christian Wilson, the Press Spokesman for the German affiliate of the French nuclear power company Areva. Wilson confirmed that there has been a shift within the industry regarding its future prospects. That same day, the German industrial giant Siemens announced that it was ending its partnership with Areva and entering into negotiations for a series of joint ventures with the Russian public sector nuclear company Rosatom. Wilson pointed out that when Siemens initialled its partnership with Areva in the late 1990's, most expected nuclear power to go nowhere. This had now changed, with almost universal expectations that nuclear power will be a growth industry around the world. Siemens, he speculated, was hoping that a partnership with the Russians would open up new opportunities for expansion. ¶7. (SBU) Wilson confirmed that the nuclear industry has been reassured by the leadership of the CDU/CSU and FDP that should they form Germany's next government, they would move to indefinitely extend the life of the country's nuclear plants. Similar views were aired during the Atom Forum event. Wilson pointed out that while new nuclear plants are not currently part of the agenda, the industry was increasingly confident that these could become a serious prospect sometime in the future, depending on the outcome of the next election. Conservative Parties More Amenable -------------- ¶8. (U) On February 13, ECONMIN attended the annual closed door session of the CDU Economic Council, during which a select group of the CDU/CSU leadership held unusually frank discussions with environmental/energy experts and business leaders. The theme of the event was "Energy and Environmental Policy." ¶9. (SBU) In his address, Economics Ministry State Secretary Jochen Homann stressed that Germany, because of its nuclear ban, must now replace nuclear power while facing a "huge increase" in energy demand. Homann lamented that by "going it alone" and dispensing with nuclear power, Germany will increase its dependence on oil, natural gas and coal. Homann emphasized that Germany will need to reconsider nuclear power as it must diversify energy supply. With other countries turning to nuclear as "clean energy," Germany may have to import electricity generated by their nuclear power plants. Christa Thoben, the Energy Minister of Nordrhein-Westphalen, pointed out that nuclear plants are being constructed all over Europe. She urged Germany to reconsider nuclear plants as part of its climate protection policy. ¶10. (SBU) In her remarks to the session, Chancellor Merkel confirmed that the CDU would address nuclear policy during the upcoming national election campaign, but did not specify what the party's position would be. When asked, she refused to address whether the CDU would reconsider the nuclear ban after the election. She also found it likely that Germany would import power generated by nuclear plants in France and elsewhere. Thinking the Unthinkable -------------- ¶11. (SBU) The public statements of CDU/CSU and FDP politicians and the nuclear industry, as represented by its lobbying groups, reflect a growing convergence. It was not too long ago that nuclear power was a taboo subject in Germany, and its opponents thought that the issue was permanently resolved. Since then, events such as the world economic downturn, spiking energy prices, the increasing sophistication of nuclear reactors, research into nuclear waste disposal and growing concerns about CO2 emissions have enlivened nuclear power proponents. With conservative political parties more amendable, there is a growing sense that the subject must be reopened for discussion. Comment -------------- ¶12. (SBU) We expect that nuclear power could be a prominent theme in the run-up to this year's national election (September 27). Nuclear power proponents have told us in private that they would view the formation of a CDU/CSU/FDP government as a concrete sign that a shift in nuclear policy is in the offing. Even if another CDU/CSU-SPD "Grand Coalition" is formed after the September election, the nuclear power industry is increasingly confident that time is on its side. Should polls showing a growing shift in popular opinion prove correct, the chances for nuclear power in Germany could improve. Koenig