HOST NATION SENSITIVITY SURVEY: USAREUR FORCE

S E C R E T BERLIN 000183 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2019 TAGS: MARR PREL GM SUBJECT: HOST NATION SENSITIVITY SURVEY: USAREUR FORCE STRUCTURE CHANGES IN FY 2010 REF: EUCOM MSG DTG 270924Z JAN 09 Classified By: Deputy Political Minister Counselor Stan Otto for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S) Reftel requested Embassy Berlin's assessment of host nation sensitivity regarding USAREUR's plan to move troops currently stationed in Schweinfurt to Grafenwoehr and to move or inactivate several smaller units at posts throughout the country. This message provides Embassy Berlin's assessment of host nation sensitivity (government reaction, press response, and economic impact) to the proposed overseas force structure change (OFSC),which is to be notified to host nation officials in March 2009 and to be completed during FY10. ¶2. (S) Government Reaction. Post does not anticipate a negative German federal government reaction to the proposed change, which will complete a unit move authorized by DoD in FY 08 and briefed to German officials in conjunction with the DoD decision to retain the 172nd Brigade in theater until ¶2013. Post also does not expect a negative reaction at the state (Land) level since these moves are occurring largely with one German state (Bavaria). The plan to move the remaining elements of the 172nd Infantry Brigade from Schweinfurt, now proposed to be completed in FY10, supports a USAREUR request to move these troops closer to Grafenwoehr, the main U.S. Army training area in Germany. Support troops from other bases within Germany would be relocated to fill the vacant facilities in Schweinfurt. ¶3. (S) Press response. Speculation in the local media can be expected, as the move may focus the public,s attention on the question of the longer-term future of the installation. If the 172nd Brigade returns to CONUS in 2013 in accordance with the current plan, a consolidation of remaining forces at Grafenwoehr and eventual closure of the Schweinfurt facility is foreseen. Local officials and the public understand that Schweinfurt is not listed as an enduring installation. Post expects local press reports to be neutral to negative in terms of the prospects for long-term U.S. stationing. ¶4. (S) Economic Impact. The move will result in the transfer of approximately 1,400 U.S. personnel plus their families out of Schweinfurt to Grafenwoehr, which will, at least in the short run, have negative effects on the Schweinfurt local economy. The bulk of the troops that Schweinfurt is losing will be eventually replaced by support troops from other U.S. bases in Germany, so the economic dislocation should only be temporary. The fact that the transfer will not involve the loss of any local national jobs at Schweinfurt will limit the immediate overall economic impact. ¶5. (S) However, as noted above, the transfer of forces in and out of Schweinfurt is likely to rekindle speculation about the longer-term future of the base. Schweinfurt is not an enduring facility, and could be closed as early as 2012-13, when the 172nd and 173rd brigades are scheduled to be re-deployed to CONUS and Italy respectively. That could have a depressing effect on the longer-term business investment in the Schweinfurt area. Koenig