MEDIA REACTION: COP15, IRAN, GERMANY-AFGHANISTAN, OBAMA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BERLIN 001612 STATE FOR INR/R/MR, EUR/PAPD, EUR/PPA, EUR/CE, INR/EUC, INR/P, SECDEF FOR USDP/ISA/DSAA, DIA FOR DC-4A VIENNA FOR CSBM, CSCE, PAA "PERISHABLE INFORMATION -- DO NOT SERVICE" SIPDIS E.0. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO KGHG IR GM AF US SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: COP15, IRAN, GERMANY-AFGHANISTAN, OBAMA PRESIDENCY;BERLIN ¶1. Lead Stories Summary ¶2. Climate Change ¶3. Iranian protests ¶4. Afghanistan ¶5. Obama Presidency ¶1. Lead Stories Summary ZDF-TVQs primetime newscast Heute led with a story on the traffic chaos throughout Europe due to freezing temperatures. ARD-TVQs primetime newscast Tagesschau led with a report on the government coalitionQs debate over budget cuts. Newspapers led with diverse stories, including the protests in Iran and considerations of how to reduce the national deficit. Due to the upcoming holidays, Stern magazine and Die Zeit were already published today. Editorials focused on the protests in Iran and the government coalitionQs plans to cut expenditures in 2011. ¶2. Climate Change Handelsblatt editorialized: QIt is also good for the economy if Germany is a pioneer in climate protection. Taking the lead, however, does not mean that one moves forward and then stands there alone because nobody follows. Any concessions in climate protection are based on the foundation of a common international effort. Only Germany is the exception and promised cutting 40 percent of emissions by 2020 without any preconditions. The German government is now alone and does not really know what to do after the failure of Copenhagen. There can be only one answer: revision. In a lengthy analysis, the weekly newspaper Die Zeit noted: QCan you achieve a binding climate protection agreement with 193 countries? Multilateralism has shown its worst side in Copenhagen. The number of countries that have to cooperate to save the world is small. We are talking about a handful of major emitters: the U.S., China, Japan, Russia and the EU. However, the climate sinners will not promise improvements without being urged to move forward by the victims of climate change. All the hope now focuses on the next global climate conference, which will take place in Mexico at the end of 2010. Mankind will continue to negotiate and hopefully realize early enough that you cannot negotiate with nature. Tagesspiegel stated in a front-page editorial: QThe minimum consensus on Copenhagen is poor, almost a failure. Saving the world, if something like it can be done by an agreement, was indeed delayed. However, is this also a failure of scientists? Scientists have collected indications that the climate is changing but governments are not convinced yet. Copenhagen was a triumph of climate skeptics However, Climategate could not shake the reality that the climate is changing. The hints are powerful. The findings of scientists can indicate the right course, but it must be set by politicians. The democratic division of labor worked well in the past, even if some desire an ecological dictatorship after the lukewarm results of Copenhagen. ¶3. Iranian protests In an editorial, Die Welt noted: QMontazeri was the spiritual father of the reform movement, an inspiration and the religious legitimacy of the green opposition, whose political face Hussein Mussawi was. Montazeri embodied the idea of a enlightened Islam. However, with him the resistance will not necessarily die. The opposite could be the case, as the mass protests at his funeral showed. Sueddeutsche opined: QWith the funeral on Monday, the confrontation will not be over. It could escalate already on Sunday, because the seventh day after the death is the day to greatly commemorate the deceived, and in this case it is also the Day of Ashura, when Shia BERLIN 00001612 002 OF 003 Muslims excessively commemorated the martyrdom of Husayn ibn Ali Husayn died fighting against the unjust rule of a usurper. Montazeri himself has defined the power of the Khamenei as a dictatorship and that of Ahmadinejad as illegitimate. There is a clear parallel for everybody involved. Frankfurter Allgemeine editorialized: QNothing can intimidate the green opposition movement, neither threats nor brutal violence. The opposition exploits any opportunity to protest against the rule of President Ahmadinejad, who is probably in power only because of election fraud and the support of the regimeQs security authorities. The opposition is having a certain effect because it continues to articulate its protest within the system of the Islamic Republic. However, can this change the circumstances? Handelsblatt commented: QTurning mourning into protests was the motive with which hundreds of thousands of Iranians went to the funeral of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri in Qom. The powerful demonstration of the protesters shows: the opposition in Iran is alive. It lost its mentor with the death of Montazeri, who had given the reform movement a powerful voice, but it has not lost its momentum. Clerics and the government should be warned. The opposition is intrepidly fighting with mainly peaceful means against repression and dictatorial methods. As long as AhmadinejadQs style of leadership does not change, riots could break out in Iran any time. Frankfurter Rundschau showed a front page photo of Grand Ayatollah MonazeriaQs coffin with many protesters under the headline QIranQs opposition is alive.Q In an editorial, the paper wrote: QGrand Ayatollah Montazeri cannot be replaced. By his constant faithfulness to the true lesson of Islam and humanity, which he always acknowledged, unlike many of his religious colleagues, he was more credible, convincing and popular than many others. His voice gave more weight to the green movement. However, this personality, who the reforms already see as a martyr, was a symbol, not a political leader. The truth is that the green movement has already left behind Montazeri. Nobody can any longer control it and restrict its goals within the Islamic system. ¶4. Afghanistan Frankfurter Allgemeine editorialized that the idea of talking to Afghan insurgents is right Qbecause insurgents in Afghanistan and Pakistan are not a homogeneous organization but represent all walks of life and stand for diverse goals. However, Americans and Britons have repeatedly tried to pull local warlords to their side with nice words and a lot of moneyQwithout being overwhelmingly successful. President Karzai has repeatedly called on Taliban leaders to put down their arms and to integrate in the political process. He has negotiated with them through middlemen without much success. The reasons for this difficulty remain unclear, and it will certainly not be done by people in Berlin. Tagesspiegel commented: QWhen two people say the same thing, the impact can be completely different. Former SPD Chairman Beck was accused of being a foreign political nobody and defeatist when he approved of talks with moderate Taliban after he returned from a visit to Afghanistan in autumn of 2007. One of his loudest critics at the time was CSU foreign policy expert Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg. Two years later, zu Guttenberg mentions the thought he condemned at the time. One might repeat the old wisdom that leftwing politicians are blamed as traitors when they pursue realpolitik, and conservatives are celebrated when the do the same. However, the dispute over whether to integrate Taliban into a peaceful solution is about something more. It is about the understanding that we no longer can achieve our goals and that we therefore have to reduce our expectations if the mission is to come BERLIN 00001612 003 OF 003 to a good end. Ostsee-Zeitung commented: Q[SPD Chairman] GabrielQs rejection to send combat troops to Afghanistan can be interpreted as populism. On the other side is also clear that the Bundeswehr mission in Afghanistan must be rationally analyzed. How should it go on? The ChancellorQs reference to the London conference on Afghanistan at the end of January does not get us any further at all. Merkel is demonstrating a lack of courage in facing unpleasant facts--and weak leadership. ¶5. Obama Presidency Under the headline QMaybe 2010 will be ObamaQs year,Q Frankfurter Rundschau analyzed: QSo far, Barack Obama is a President of great hope, great promises and long waiting. Prior to the end of the year, the success of the White House is within limits. The President has prevented the worldQs largest economy from collapsing with an unprecedented economic stimulus program. However, unemployment in the U.S. is at a record high. It feels like America is still in a deep recession. The detention camp in Guantanamo might be closed one day, but not as promised on January 22 No-one in Washington wants to celebrate the result of the climate summit. At the end of the year, the deadline Obama set for Iran is expiring at the end of the year to show readiness to seriously discuss the nuclear dispute. Tehran seems to be deaf. Nothing is moving in the Mideast conflict. Disarmament talks with Russia are entering another round and troops are increasing in Afghanistan. All this has led to a sobering feeling in the U.S.: a President of nice words, nothing else. However, the premature verdict ignores that Obama has got things moving. He has started many things in his first year that might bear fruits soon. DELAWIE