GERMAN VIEWS ON DECEMBER 8 EU FOREIGN AFFAIRS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 001556

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2019
TAGS: PREL EUN MARR GM BK MK SR IR
SUBJECT: GERMAN VIEWS ON DECEMBER 8 EU FOREIGN AFFAIRS
COUNCIL MEETING

REF: A. 12/3 KONICK E-MAIL

B. BERLIN 1544

Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR GEORGE GLASS. REASONS: 1.4
(B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Germany shares our views on the way ahead in
Bosnia, but does not want to rule out the possibility (albeit
small) of a breakthrough by the time of the March PIC meeting
that would allow the OHR to close and EUFOR Althea to be
withdrawn on a more accelerated basis. Germany blames
Macedonia for not seriously considering name proposals that
could have opened the way to progress on its EU membership
application. Germany is optimistic about a breakthrough that
will finally allow implementation of the EU interim agreement
with Serbia, but is strongly discouraging Belgrade from
submitting an EU membership application now, arguing that it
is premature. Germany regrets that the December 10 European
Council statement on Iran is likely to address the full
panoply of concerns, thereby diluting the message on the
nuclear question. Germany is happy with the re-worked
conclusions on the Middle East and is perplexed why Romania
and Hungary continue to voice concerns. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) Post delivered ref A points to MFA European
Correspondent Michael Fluegger on December 4 and followed up
to get his reaction on December 7. We also shared points
directly with the MFA Middle East and Iran offices.

BOSNIA


3. (C) Fluegger said the only quibble Germany had on the U.S.
points regarding Bosnia was the emphasis on keeping the
Office of the High Representative (OHR) open "at least"
through the October 2010 elections. Fluegger noted that
there would be another Peace Implementation Council (PIC)
meeting in March and that Germany would not want to rule out
beforehand a decision to close the OHR at that point.
However, he agreed that the chances of the Bosnian parties
making the necessary progress by then were probably "only 5
percent."


4. (C) Fluegger also emphasized that Germany did not go as
far as the UK in insisting that EUFOR Althea remain as long
as the OHR stays open. While Germany agreed it was important
for Althea to remain in place at its current strength of
2,000 through the October 2010 elections, its viability
beyond that date would depend on the willingness of other EU
countries to maintain their troops in the force. He
expressed concern that Spain was already poised to withdraw
its contingent by May; at some point, if such withdrawals
continued, EUFOR would no longer be large enough to provide
the desired credibility to the Bonn Powers of the High Rep.
Fluegger said with some disdain that the UK was pushing for
EUFOR Althea to stay in place, even though the UK itself had
"only ten soldiers" in the operation. (Comment: Germany has
130 soldiers in Althea. End Comment.)

MACEDONIA


5. (C) Fluegger said that it appeared that there would no
progress on Macedonia's EU membership application at either
the EU FAC or at the December 10 Summit. He said the German
impression was that the Macedonians had not really looked
seriously at the name proposals on the table and therefore
had missed an opportunity to advance this issue.

SERBIA


6. (C) Fluegger said he was "fairly optimistic" about a
breakthrough that would allow the EU go forward in
implementing the interim agreement with Serbia, which would
govern relations until the Stabilization and Association
Agreement (SAA) was ratified and came into force. He thought
there was a good chance that the Netherlands would drop its
long-standing veto based on certification of minimally
acceptable cooperation with ICTY.


7. (C) Fluegger said Germany was concerned that Serbia would
follow this step with an immediate application for EU
membership, which Berlin did "not want to see." Germany
thought such an application was premature and should only
come after the SAA entered force. Fluegger said that if the
EU Commission had to do an avis on a Serbian membership
application now, the evaluation would have to be negative,
given the reforms that Serbia still needed to make. Serbia
politicians gave the impression that EU membership was
possible within 3-4 years, when in fact, it would take at
least 10 years. Fluegger noted that Chancellor Merkel had
made this point to Serbian President Tadic during his

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November 15 visit to Berlin.

IRAN


8. (C) Fluegger confirmed that Germany was "absolutely on
your side" regarding Iran and was especially pleased that the
U.S. was maintaining its emphasis on pursuing a new UNSCR to
exert pressure on Iran, if that proves necessary. He noted
that the Russians have threatened to abandon cooperation on
the UN track if the EU pursues new autonomous sanctions
against Iran, so Germany favored having the EU stand down for
now. Fluegger said that the December 10 European Council
would have an annex to their conclusions focused on Iran. He
regretted that, contrary to Germany's desires, the text would
not just address the nuclear issue, but also concerns about
human rights, the treatment of local embassy employees, etc.
as well. He said Germany preferred addressing these issues
in a separate document for fear of diluting the message on
the nuclear question.

MIDDLE EAST


9. (C) Fluegger noted that the 12-paragraph Swedish draft
conclusions on the Middle East had been significantly
re-worked and that Germany was now satisfied that they were
fair and balanced and not overly critical of Israel. He was
perplexed that Romania and Hungary were still blocking
approval, notwithstanding German assurances on this point.
Fluegger also noted that UK FM Miliband had pushed for
stronger language -- going beyond what the EU has said before
-- on supporting Palestinian claims to East Jerusalem as the
capital of a future Palestinian state. (See ref B for
Germany's reaction to the U.S. message on Israel's settlement
moratorium.)
MURPHY