GERMANY TO WAIT UNTIL AFTER CONFERENCE TO ANNOUNCE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 001502 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2019 TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS NATO GM AF SUBJECT: GERMANY TO WAIT UNTIL AFTER CONFERENCE TO ANNOUNCE ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTIONS FOR AFGHANISTAN REF: STATE 120807 Classified By: AMBASSADOR PHILIP D. MURPHY. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (S) SUMMARY. Chancellery National Security Advisor Christoph Heusgen responded positively to the news that President Obama would formally announce the U.S. way forward on Afghanistan and Pakistan next week before the NATO Foreign Ministerial. However, he confirmed that Germany would not announce any new contributions until after the proposed Afghanistan Conference early next year, where the Afghan government is expected to make commitments on undertaking necessary reforms and gradually assuming responsibility from the international community. Heusgen argued that this sequencing would make it easier for the German government to make the case for greater engagement in Afghanistan with the Bundestag and the German public. The delay in announcing new contributions is also part of the government's strategy for keeping the opposition Social Democrats on board with the parliamentary mandate for Bundeswehr participation in ISAF. The long-term viability of the German engagement in Afghanistan depends on broad political support from all the major parties. END SUMMARY. NO ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTIONS RIGHT AWAY ¶2. (S) Ambassador Murphy delivered reftel points to Heusgen on November 24, noting that President Obama would formally announce our way forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan next week and emphasizing the hope that Germany would be able to express political support immediately afterwards. Heusgen welcomed the news, noting that he had been given advance notice the evening before in a telephone call from NSA Jones. Heusgen confirmed that Germany would not able to announce any new contributions right after the President's announcement or at the December 7 ISAF Force Generation Conference, having already decided to put that off until after the Afghanistan Conference. Toward that end, Heusgen noted that the German cabinet agreed last week to seek a simple roll-over the current parliamentary mandate for the Bundeswehr's participation in ISAF when it comes up for renewal next month, leaving the troop ceiling at 4,500. LEVERING AFGHAN GOVERNMENT COMMITMENTS ¶3. (S) Heusgen said that the German government would be willing to re-open the mandate and reconsider additional contributions after the conference, provided the Afghan government undertook the necessary commitments to carry out reforms and to begin assuming responsibility from the international community. Heusgen said Germany thought this made more sense than simply "unilaterally" announcing additional contributions without getting any Afghan commitments beforehand. He also argued that this sequencing would make it easier for the German government to go to the public and Bundestag and make the case for greater engagement in Afghanistan. Heusgen said it was important to be able to show that there was "a light at the end of the tunnel" and that the Afghans were willing to do their part. DECISIVE BUNDESTAG DEBATE AFTER THE CONFERENCE ¶4. (S) Since the government was seeking a simple roll-over the ISAF mandate in December, Heusgen did not expect a very substantive debate in the Bundestag, especially since there were several other mandates, including OEF and UNIFIL, which needed to be acted upon in a relatively short amount of time. He said it would be interesting to see how the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens positioned themselves on the mandate. He thought that new SPD Caucus Chair (and former FM) Steinmeier would "do everything he can" to keep the SPD on board with the mandate, at least this time around. Otherwise, he would "lose a great deal of credibility." Heusgen acknowledged that the more decisive debate on Afghanistan in the Bundestag would come after the conference, when the government seeks additional resources to implement the results. COMMENT ¶5. (S) The government's public justification for waiting until after the Afghanistan Conference before making any additional contributions is to lever the necessary BERLIN 00001502 002 OF 002 commitments from the Afghan government. However, it is clear that domestic political realties loom even larger in this decision. The government wants to make it as difficult as possible for the SPD to abandon a mandate that it itself pushed through the Bundestag on a vote of confidence in 2001 under former Chancellor Schroeder. ¶6. (S) We have an interest in the government's success in keeping the SPD on board: the long-term viability of the German engagement in Afghanistan depends on broad political support from all the major political parties, especially in the face of public opinion polls which consistently show that more than 60 percent of Germans favor the Bundeswehr's immediate withdrawal. There is a political consensus here that only those out-of-area deployments that enjoy broad majority support in the Bundestag should be sustained. The SPD's recent announcement that it would vote against the OEF mandate when it comes up for renewal next month may be an attempt by Steinmeier to sustain lagging support for ISAF within the SPD by sacrificing the OEF mandate, which remains unpopular even though it no longer includes authorization for operations in Afghanistan. MURPHY