GERMAN MFA SAYS EU PREPARING SANCTIONS ON GUINEA,

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001468

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO AF/E GEETA PASI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2019
TAGS: PREL PHUM CD CG SU GM
SUBJECT: GERMAN MFA SAYS EU PREPARING SANCTIONS ON GUINEA,
WATCHING ELECTION PREPARATION IN SUDAN, AND FRUSTRATED IN
THE DRC

REF: BERLIN 1467

Classified By: Minister Counselor for Political Affairs George Glass fo
r reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) German MFA Assistant Secretary-equivalent for African
Affairs Muelmenstaedt met with visiting AF DAS Wycoff October
15 in Berlin, prior to the October 16 MFA-hosted quint
discussion on East Africa (reported reftel). During the
bilat, we reviewed East Africa generally (information
reported reftel in the quint message) but focused on Sudan,
Guinea, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

SUDAN
--------------


2. (C) On the upcoming April elections in Sudan,
Muelmenstaedt said that he had met with the Institute for
Security Studies (ISS) and that they were very skeptical and
questioned whether a referendum should take place prior to
the elections. Both agreed neither the north nor the south
in the Sudan favored a referendum. Muelmenstaedt predicted
President Bashir would win the elections, which would
legitimize him, an important step.


GUINEA
--------------


3. (C) Turning to Guinea, Muelmenstaedt said that the EU was
currently preparing sanctions and announced an upcoming EU
Political and Security Committee (PSC) meeting on Guinea to
consider travel restrictions on business persons and a freeze
on property in EU countries with the goal of pressuring the
"de facto powers" to step down. Muelmenstaedt noted that
while some German EMBASSY employees in Conakry had departed
and the German government had issued a heightened state of
alert and urged German expatriates to leave the country, few
had actually departed.

DRC
---


4. (C) On the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Congo),
Germany believes President Kabila is intent on staying in
power and would change the constitution to facilitate this.
Muelmenstaedt opined that nothing had really changed in the
Congo, adding that it remains a "big mess." Wycoff said the
U.S. assessment was less negative but agreed that Kabila
might be developing some authoritarian tendencies. We agreed
on the importance of keeping the elections on schedule.
Wycoff told Muelmenstaedt that Rwanda had reached the
conclusion that Rwanda stood to gain more politically and
economically with a stable Congo. Muelmenstaedt registered
concern over the transparency of assistance spending in the
DRC, acknowledging progress in addressing gender-based
violence, including the judicial role being played by
military courts. DAS Wycoff noted that the fact that Kabila
had expressed zero tolerance for this violence had been an
important step, but one that required urgent implementation.


5. (C) Comment: Muelmenstaedt confided to Emboff notetaker
on the margins of the meeting that he would leave his
position next year. He questioned the degree of interest the
new German Foreign Minister, Guido Westerwelle, would have in
Africa. End comment.


6. (U) This cable was cleared by AF DAS Karl Wycoff.
MURPHY