GERMAN MFA SAYS EU PREPARING SANCTIONS ON GUINEA,

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001468 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO AF/E GEETA PASI E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2019 TAGS: PREL PHUM CD CG SU GM SUBJECT: GERMAN MFA SAYS EU PREPARING SANCTIONS ON GUINEA, WATCHING ELECTION PREPARATION IN SUDAN, AND FRUSTRATED IN THE DRC REF: BERLIN 1467 Classified By: Minister Counselor for Political Affairs George Glass fo r reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) German MFA Assistant Secretary-equivalent for African Affairs Muelmenstaedt met with visiting AF DAS Wycoff October 15 in Berlin, prior to the October 16 MFA-hosted quint discussion on East Africa (reported reftel). During the bilat, we reviewed East Africa generally (information reported reftel in the quint message) but focused on Sudan, Guinea, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. SUDAN -------------- ¶2. (C) On the upcoming April elections in Sudan, Muelmenstaedt said that he had met with the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and that they were very skeptical and questioned whether a referendum should take place prior to the elections. Both agreed neither the north nor the south in the Sudan favored a referendum. Muelmenstaedt predicted President Bashir would win the elections, which would legitimize him, an important step. GUINEA -------------- ¶3. (C) Turning to Guinea, Muelmenstaedt said that the EU was currently preparing sanctions and announced an upcoming EU Political and Security Committee (PSC) meeting on Guinea to consider travel restrictions on business persons and a freeze on property in EU countries with the goal of pressuring the "de facto powers" to step down. Muelmenstaedt noted that while some German Embassy employees in Conakry had departed and the German government had issued a heightened state of alert and urged German expatriates to leave the country, few had actually departed. DRC --- ¶4. (C) On the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Congo), Germany believes President Kabila is intent on staying in power and would change the constitution to facilitate this. Muelmenstaedt opined that nothing had really changed in the Congo, adding that it remains a "big mess." Wycoff said the U.S. assessment was less negative but agreed that Kabila might be developing some authoritarian tendencies. We agreed on the importance of keeping the elections on schedule. Wycoff told Muelmenstaedt that Rwanda had reached the conclusion that Rwanda stood to gain more politically and economically with a stable Congo. Muelmenstaedt registered concern over the transparency of assistance spending in the DRC, acknowledging progress in addressing gender-based violence, including the judicial role being played by military courts. DAS Wycoff noted that the fact that Kabila had expressed zero tolerance for this violence had been an important step, but one that required urgent implementation. ¶5. (C) Comment: Muelmenstaedt confided to Emboff notetaker on the margins of the meeting that he would leave his position next year. He questioned the degree of interest the new German Foreign Minister, Guido Westerwelle, would have in Africa. End comment. ¶6. (U) This cable was cleared by AF DAS Karl Wycoff. MURPHY