GERMANY REVERSES COURSE ON BOSNIA OHR CLOSURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001456 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2019 TAGS: AORC PREL BK GM SUBJECT: GERMANY REVERSES COURSE ON BOSNIA OHR CLOSURE REF: A. BERLIN 1435 ¶B. BERLIN 1441 Classified By: Pol M/C George Glass for reasons 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Despite Germany's earlier support for the closure of the Office of the High Representative (OHR) in Bosnia, officials now say it should remain open until at least 2011. However, they believe the OHR is a damaged body that is barely able to perform the job it has been given. If the OHR remains open, they say it will be important to boost High Rep Inzko's profile in on-going negotiations with Bosnian leaders or risk a further deterioration of his influence. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Germany had long favored the closure of the OHR during the upcoming November 18-19 meeting of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC) Political Directors; however, views shifted after the October Butmir talks failed to make make sufficient progress at resolving the impasse among Bosnian leaders. MFA Bosnia Desk Officer Michael Geisler stressed to emboffs that OHR closure remains Germany's goal, but said that closure now, amidst open disagreement among the various Bosnian factions, would be ill-advised. Christoph Israng, Chancellery deputy head for South Eastern Europe, added that OHR closure should proceed only when the five goals and two conditions set by the PIC had been met. To do otherwise would damage the credibility of the EU and the U.S. ¶3. (C) Assuming the November PIC meeting reaches no decision on OHR closure, Germany sees little opportunity to revisit the issue next year. Both Geisler and Israng said that political campaigns in advance of the October 2010 Bosnian elections were certain to stir up nationalist sentiments. In such an environment, it could prove dangerous to embolden nationalist factions by closing the OHR. As a result, they believed the PIC would have to wait until at least 2011 before again taking up the question of transition from the OHR to an EU Special Representative. ¶4. (C) Though Germany believes the Butmir process remains vitally important, Geisler said that officials did not yet see any willingness by all nine Bosnian leaders to accept the proposed reform package. Instead, he said it would be important to achieve minor compromises as a first step. However, Germany was very concerned by Republika Srpska PM Dodik's rejection of the constitutional reform proposals as well as his refusal to participate in future meetings with international officials. ¶4. (C) Geisler stressed the continuing importance of the EU peacekeeping mission ALTHEA, arguing that a withdrawal of the mission's 2,000 troops would send a negative signal. As a result, Geisler expected the EU GAERC to renew the ALTHEA mandate at its next meeting. However, MFA Special Envoy for Southeast Europe Emily Haber told us she feared that the ALTHEA force was already too small to implement any controversial decisions by HR Inzko under the Bonn Powers. For his part, Israng was disappointed that France had decided to reduce its ALTHEA contingent and assured us that Germany would not reduce its current contribution of 140 soldiers. ¶5. (C) Despite seeing a continued need for it, Germany believes the OHR is a damaged body that is incapable of performing the job it has been given. Israng said there had been so much anticipation of the OHR's closure that the office no longer wielded sufficient power -- and even less after Inzko appeared to be overshadowed by the U.S. and EU during the Butmir talks. Though German officials believed the OHR was destined to limp along until 2011, Israng suggested that Inzko be given a boost by having him play a more prominent role in the Butmir process. Comment -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Though there is much talk about Germany's enlargement fatigue, both the MFA and Chancellery insist the door to EU membership for the western Balkans remains open -- provided they can resolve their internal problems and meet EU requirements. In that sense, German officials continue to stress to us that the OHR remains a major stumbling block for Bosnia since the EU has made OHR closure a pre-requisite for the country to gain candidacy status. While EU candidacy for Bosnia may be a medium-term possibility, German officials remain adamant that NATO membership remains a bridge too far. With EUFOR peace-keepers still on the ground, Germany sees little chance for a quick road into NATO. As a result, officials here continue to strongly oppose MAP for Bosnia in the near-term. End comment. MURPHY