GERMAN VIEWS ON NOVEMBER 16-17 EU GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001441 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2019 TAGS: PREL EUN PGOV MARR MOPS BO RU UP SO BK SUBJECT: GERMAN VIEWS ON NOVEMBER 16-17 EU GAERC REF: 11/9 EUR/ERA E-MAIL Classified By: DEPUTY POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR STAN OTTO. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. On Belarus, Germany concedes that the GAERC is likely to extend both the sanctions regime and the suspension of those sanctions until October 2010, but continues to believe that it would be better to extend them only to May 2010. Germany is eager to increase cooperation with Russia under ESDP, but acknowledges that Moscow's strong reluctance to subordinate its forces to EU command remains a major stumbling block. Germany remains dismissive of Ukrainian entreaties on visa liberalization given Kyiv's lack of commitment on economic reforms. Germany agrees that the international community has an interest in supporting the Somalian government in the training of its security forces, but still has misgivings about the proposed ESDP training mission. Given the lack of progress in the recent Butmir Talks, Germany acknowledges that the OHR in Bosnia will have to remain open at least another year, which, in turn, means maintaining EUFOR Althea at its current strength. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) Post discussed ref points with MFA European Corespondent Michael Fluegger on November 13. B TEAM ON SECOND DAY OF THE GAERC ¶3. (SBU) Fluegger reported that Germany will be represented at ministerial level only during the first day of the jumbo GAERC. On November 17, FM Westerwelle and Defense Minister zu Guttenberg will join the rest of the German cabinet in a day-long, off-site meeting at Meseberg Castle in Brandenburg, 70 km. north of Berlin. New MFA State Secretary Wolf-Ruthart Born and MOD State Ruediger Wolf will sit in for their principals at the GAERC. BELARUS ¶4. (C) Fluegger confirmed that both the sanctions regime and the suspension of the sanctions would be extended until October 2010. Fluegger said the German preference had been to extend both only until May 2010, thereby giving Belarus a stronger incentive to have free and fair elections in April. The ministers are likely to agree to a Polish-proposed "review clause," which will allow the sanctions to be re-visited at any time. Fluegger said Germany supported this idea, but conceded that it would have limited impact because consensus will be necessary to activate the review. RUSSIA ¶5. (C) Fluegger noted that one of the issues under discussion was the idea of negotiating a framework agreement with Moscow that would facilitate Russian participation in ESDP missions, like the Atalanta counterpiracy operation. The EU wanted to build on recent successful Russian-EU cooperation, in which Russia had provided helicopters in support of the EU mission in Chad. But while other non-EU countries, like Norway, had no problem subordinating their forces to the EU, this remained a major stumbling block to greater operational cooperation between Russia and the EU. UKRAINE ¶6. (C) Fluegger said Germany completely shared the U.S. view that Ukraine had to get its political act together and meet its commitments. He complained that the Ukrainians were seeking EU visa liberalization, but were unwilling to make the economic reforms necessary to ensure that this did not result in masses of "economic refugees" flowing into Western Europe. SOMALIA ¶7. (C) Fluegger said Germany agreed that the EU should do everything possible to support the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia in building up its security forces. However, Germany had "many questions" about the proposed ESDP mission to train TFG troops. Fluegger noted that notional planning envisioned deploying about 100 EU personnel to Djibouti, Uganda or Kenya to train some 2,000 TFG soldiers. Fluegger said it was still not clear to Germany how the TFG soldiers would be recruited, paid or armed. Germany was also concerned that there were not sufficient safeguards in place to keep track of trained soldiers and to ensure that they did not desert their units and sell their weapons and uniforms upon returning to Somalia. Fluegger said that while France was the most enthusiastic about the proposed ESDP mission, the UK was the most skeptical. He claimed that Germany was somewhere in the middle. BOSNIA ¶8. (C) Fluegger confirmed that Germany had reluctantly come to the conclusion that the Office of High Representative (OHR) would have to remain open. Given the limited progress in the Butmir Talks, the planned transition to the EU Special Representative would have to be delayed for at least another year, until after next year's elections in Bosnia. Fluegger said that as long as the OHR remained open, the EU Althea Force would have to stay in place. Notwithstanding Spanish plans to withdraw its contingent, Germany was hopeful that the EUFOR numbers would remain relatively stable. Since EUFOR Althea was only about 2,000 troops strong, the withdrawal of even relatively small units would have a significant impact. Fluegger said that Germany planned to maintain its current contribution of 140. MURPHY