ACTING MFA POLITICAL DIRECTOR HABER ON BOSNIA AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 001435

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/11/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM EUN PHUM GM TU BK
SUBJECT: ACTING MFA POLITICAL DIRECTOR HABER ON BOSNIA AND
TURKEY

Classified By: AMBASSADOR PHILIP D. MURPHY. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Acting MFA Political Director Emily Haber,
who is the MFA's Special Envoy for Southeast Europe and
Turkey, discussed follow-up to the Butmir Talks and the
future of the Office of the High Representative in Bosnia
with EUR A/S Gordon during a November 10 meeting in Berlin.
Haber warned against moving too fast to blame one party for
the lack of progress in the talks because doing so would take
the pressure off the other two parties to make necessary
concessions. Haber confirmed that Germany was no longer
pushing to close the Office of the High Representative (OHR)
in Bosnia, given the need for additional progress on
fulfilling the 5-plus-2 agenda, but argued that something had
to be done to make the OHR more effective. Haber also
expressed concern that EU negotiations with Turkey could soon
collapse, given the lack of substance to negotiate, thereby
significantly weakening what has been an important lever of
reform in Turkey. END SUMMARY.

FOLLOW-UP ON BUTMIR TALKS


2. (C) Haber agreed that while the first two rounds of Butmir
talks were disappointing, it was positive that the process is
still alive. Haber thought it was important not to be too
quick to single out one particular party to blame for the
impasse. While Republika Srpska (RS) PM Dodic may prove to
be the main stumbling block to agreement on a reform package,
fingering him now would take pressure off the Croats and the
Bosniaks, who also had not been helpful. Haber suggested a
division of labor in pressuring the parties back to the table
-- the Europeans should focus on Dodic, while the U.S. and
Turkey should concentrate on the Bosniaks. Haber said the
best lever against Dodic is to threaten to limit his travel
to the EU. He now travels regularly to Germany (Bavaria,
Baden-Wuerttemberg and Hessen) for business.


3. (C) Gordon said he was skeptical about whether the Turks
would help out in pressuring the Bosniaks. Haber agreed that
the Turks had not been very active on Bosnia and were usually
represented at Peace Implementation Council (PIC) meetings
only at ambassadorial level. By contrast, Haber claimed that
the Russians have played a surprisingly helpful role recently
in pressuring Dodic and other RS politicians to accept
federal authority. For example, when RS politicians
complained about Bosnia pursuing NATO membership, Moscow
supposedly declined to get involved and replied that this was
something that should be decided at the federal level of the
Bosnian state.

STRENGTHENING THE OHR


4. (C) Haber confirmed that Germany now agrees that Bosnia is
not ready for closure of the Office of the High
Representative (OHR) and transition to an EU Special
Representative. While Germany had been pushing for that
before, it will not support that step at the November 19-20
Peace Implementation Council (PIC) meeting. At the same
time, Haber argued that the current OHR was ineffective and
needed to be strengthened. She asked what we had in mind in
proposing a reinforced OHR. She thought that simply changing
or adding personnel would not be enough. Unfortunately, the
Butmir Talks had further weakened the OHR because Inzko
turned out to be such a marginal player in the presence of
Deputy Secretary Steinberg and Swedish FM Bildt.


5. (C) Gordon said part of the problem was that closure of
the OHR had been anticipated for so long, the position was
now viewed as a lame duck. To change that perception, it
would be necessary to make a clear commitment to maintain the
OHR and perhaps to name a new High Rep and deputy to provide
a fresh start.

KEEPING TURKEY ON THE PATH OF REFORM


6. (C) Haber said that there are only subtle differences in
how Turkey is addressed in the coalition agreement of the new
German government compared to that from 2005. As before, the
coalition agreement stresses that the EU negotiations are
open-ended, with no guarantee of admission at the end of the
process. In the event that the EU is not able to accept
Turkey as a member or Turkey is not able to meet the
requirements for membership, the coalition agreement calls
for integrating Turkey as closely as possible in the EU in a
"privileged relationship."


7. (C) Haber expressed concern that current EU membership
negotiations with Turkey could "deflate." The two sides are
running out of substance to negotiate, given that talks on so

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many chapters of the EU acquis communautaire have been
formally or informally frozen. She said that the EU
negotiations and the potential prospect of EU membership had
been a powerful tool in encouraging reform in Turkey. To
allow this process to collapse is "not in our own interests."
MURPHY