NEW DEFENSE MINISTER ZU GUTTENBERG ON MANDATES,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 001415

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2019
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS NATO ETRD KNNP PARM EFIN PGOV
GM, IR, AF
SUBJECT: NEW DEFENSE MINISTER ZU GUTTENBERG ON MANDATES,
OPEL, IRAN

Classified By: AMBASSADOR PHILIP D. MURPHY. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. During a November 5 introductory meeting,
new Defense Minister Karl Theodor zu Guttenberg told
Ambassador Murphy that one of his immediate challenges was
dealing with five separate Bundeswehr mandates that come up
for renewal in December, which is complicated by uncertainty
about how the Social Democratic Party (SPD) will act in
opposition. He confirmed that the ISAF mandate will probably
be rolled over largely unchanged, with any significant
modifications to German engagement coming only after the
planned international conference on Afghanistan. Drawing on
his recent experience as Economics Minister, zu Guttenberg
said it was important to manage the political fallout over
the GM decision on Opel to ensure that there would be no
long-lasting negative effects on the bilateral relationship.
He also highlighted the need to address German rumors and
sensitivities regarding enforcement of U.S. trade sanctions
against Iran. Zu Guttenberg did not raise the continuing
political fallout over the September 4 Kunduz air strike or
FM Westerwelle's call for withdrawal of all remaining nuclear
weapons from Germany. END SUMMARY.

BUNDESWEHR MANDATES


2. (C) Zu Guttenberg said one of his immediate challenges was
dealing with the prolongation of a number of parliamentary
mandates for overseas military deployments that will expire
in December, including ISAF, AWACS (Afghanistan),OEF
(maritime),EU Althea (Bosnia) and EU Atalanta
(counterpiracy). He noted that he was already trying to
adopt a new style of public communications that was more
clear and "blunt" about why these mandates were important.
He said getting the mandates approved was tricky because of
uncertainty about how the Social Democratic Party (SPD) would
act now that it was out of government. There was a good
chance that the SPD could abandon its broad support for the
mandates "in as little as two months" and join forces with
the Greens and the Left and present the government with a
united opposition, which had not been an issue for the
previous CDU-CSU/SPD Grand Coalition government. He said
another complication was that the CDU/CSU's new coalition
partner -- FM Westerwelle's Free Democratic Party (FDP) --
had a lot of catching up to do after being out of government
for 11 years.


3. (C) On the ISAF mandate, he confirmed that it would
probably be rolled over largely unchanged in December. Any
significant changes to the German engagement would only come
after the proposed international conference on Afghanistan,
which the Germans still hoped could be held by the end of
January, before the February 5-7 Munich Security Conference.
Zu Guttenberg noted that what would happen with the separate
AWACS mandate for Afghanistan was "still open." Zu
Guttenberg emphasized that much depended on whether NATO
would have the necessary arrangements (i.e., stationing and
overflight rights) in place by then to deploy the aircraft.
Ambassador Murphy emphasized that the U.S. had deep
appreciation and respect for Germany's contribution to the
international effort in Afghanistan.

FALLOUT OVER GM DECISION ON OPEL


4. (C) Zu Guttenberg (Christian Social Union - CSU) said
that the sudden reversal by General Motors regarding the sale
of Opel and the lack of transparency leading up to the
announcement had led to "irritations" within the German
government, including with the Chancellor herself.
Unfortunately, the news, which came just as the Chancellor
was departing Washington on the return to Berlin, had
overshadowed all the positive aspects of her visit. Zu
Guttenberg stressed that going forward, it would be important
to address "rumors" in Germany about what the U.S.
Administration knew or should have known about the GM
decision in advance. Many found it hard to believe that
Treasury Secretary Geithner or other Administration officials
did not know what was coming. Ambassador Murphy pointed out
that GM did not draw on USG funds in putting together its new
plans for Opel and therefore, Treasury and other USG
officials were not, in fact, in the loop.

IRAN

BERLIN 00001415 002 OF 002




5. (C) Zu Guttenberg noted that the Chancellor had been very
clear about German policy toward Iran in her November 3
speech to Congress, which was exactly in line with that of
the U.S. Zu Guttenberg, drawing on his recent experience as
Economics Minister, said that in order to keep the German
business community on board with trade sanctions, it was
important to address rumors that U.S. firms were using Dubai
as a "platform" for getting around the restrictions. Zu
Guttenberg also gave the Ambassador a friendly warning that
there were still some "sensitivities" in German circles
regarding the U.S. Treasury's direct and "undiplomatic"
intervention in Germany a few years ago regarding U.S.
sanctions imposed against Bank Melli. On the Dubai point,
Ambassador Murphy assured zu Guttenberg that the U.S.
Treasury Department took the trade sanctions against Iran
very seriously and "went after" any U.S. companies suspected
of violating them.

BALKANS


6. (C) Zu Guttenberg noted that the situation in Bosnia was
not developing positively, with old nationalist tensions
re-emerging, but said he had not yet reached a "personal
conclusion" whether the Office of the High Representative
(OHR) should remain open. He noted that the current High Rep
Valentin Inzko (Austria) is an "old friend" of his. On
Kosovo, he thought the situation was "not too bad right now,"
but thought the international community still had to be
"cautious."

BILATERAL RELATIONS


7. (C) Ambassador Murphy noted with appreciation the
Chancellor's emphasis on the positive role played by U.S.
military forces stationed in Germany in the past and
currently in her November 3 speech before Congress. Zu
Guttenberg agreed that the presence of U.S. troops continued
to have positive spill-over effects in fostering a close
societal bond between the U.S. and Germany. He noted that
American troops had long been stationed in Bamberg, near his
home town in northern Bavaria, so he had personal experience
with this phenomenon and understood its importance.

VISIT TO U.S.


8. (C) Zu Guttenberg plans to visit the United States to meet
senior U.S. Administration officials the week of November 16.

MURPHY