CHANCELLOR RULES OUT TROOP INCREASE BEFORE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BERLIN 001376 SIPDIS STATE FOR SRAP HOLBROOKE E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2019 TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS PGOV AF SUBJECT: CHANCELLOR RULES OUT TROOP INCREASE BEFORE AFGHANISTAN CONFERENCE NEXT YEAR REF: BERLIN 1273 Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR GEORGE GLASS. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Chancellor Merkel has firmly decided against seeking authorization for additional troops when the parliamentary mandate for the Bundeswehr's participation in ISAF comes up for renewal in December. Merkel's decision to put off any possible troop increase until after next year's Afghanistan conference comes despite the fact that both the MFA and MOD state secretaries strongly recommended in favor of a significantly higher troop ceiling. Given the continuing stalemate over the Afghan presidential election and the ongoing policy review in Washington, Merkel's view is that the time is not ripe to try to push through an increase in troops against possible opposition from the Social Democratic Party (SPD). However, SPD sources in the Bundestag claim that the party, in fact, would readily support a moderate increase in the troop ceiling in December if the government requested it. Past experience indicates that the Chancellor will stick to her current position, but since the formal Cabinet decision on the mandate will not be taken until November 18, her visit to Washington next week still offers a small window of opportunity for reconsideration. While looking at options for how to cover the growing security challenges in the north under the existing troop ceiling of 4,500, MFA and MOD officials are concerned that Germany's reluctance to send more troops in the short run could invite a feared American "takeover" of the north. END SUMMARY. NO TROOP INCREASE IN DECEMBER ¶2. (C) MFA, MOD and Chancellery officials confirm that Chancellor Merkel has decided that when the parliamentary mandate for the Bundeswehr's participation in ISAF comes up for renewal in December, the government will not seek to increase the troop ceiling beyond the current level of 4,500. Instead, the government will propose a simple "technical rollover" of the existing mandate. The Chancellor believes that any possible increases in either troops or civilian assistance should only come after the proposed international conference on Afghanistan, which the Germans hope can be held as early as late January. The Germans want the conference to set a new framework and benchmarks for the international engagement in Afghanistan, as well as prescribe what is expected of the Afghan government in return. We understand that MFA State Secretary Reinhard Silberberg briefed SACEUR GEN Stavridis about the Chancellor's decision when he visited Berlin on October 16. ¶3. (C) The German cabinet is scheduled to formally decide on the ISAF mandate on November 18. After a first reading in the Bundestag on November 27, it will be reviewed by committee and go to vote in early December. The current mandate expires December 13. NO AUTOMATICITY FOR MANDATE REVIEW ¶4. (C) While the government's plan would be to re-examine the mandate and troop ceiling after the Afghanistan conference early next year, MFA ISAF Action Officer Lukas Wasielewski emphasized to us that this would not be automatic. The mandate will be renewed in December to run for the entire course of the current UN Security Council resolution authorizing ISAF, i.e., until the end of October 2010. Therefore, the government will have to take the initiative to reconsider the troop ceiling. Past experience has been that governments are very reluctant to open up approved mandates and usually prefer to make changes only when the mandates come up for renewal. DECISION GOES AGAINST MFA AND MOD RECOMMENDATIONS ¶5. (C) Merkel's decision to put off any possible troop increase until after next year's Afghanistan conference comes despite the fact that both the MFA and MOD state secretaries recommended that the troop ceiling be increased. According to officials in the two ministries, a consensus had developed in recent weeks that the Bundeswehr needed more troops in Afghanistan to deal with the increased insurgent threat in the north and to accelerate the training of the Afghan national security forces (ANSF). This was also the recommendation of the cautious Chief of Defense GEN Schneiderhan. As noted reftel, there was serious discussion BERLIN 00001376 002 OF 003 of increasing the troop ceiling from the current 4,500 to as high as 7,000. FEAR OF SPD OPPOSITION ¶6. (C) According to Wasielewski, who is directly responsible for drafting the ISAF mandate, Merkel decided against an increase largely because new SPD Caucus Leader (and former FM) Steinmeier told her that the SPD would vote against the mandate in December if it included additional troops. Wasielewski said that Merkel,s reluctance to go forward without the SPD on board reflects the German desire for consensus and for having these sorts of mandates approved with large, overwhelming parliamentary majorities. ¶7. (C) Chancellery Military Affairs Director Col. Erich Vad confirmed that possible SPD opposition to the mandate played a part in the Chancellor's decision. Given the continuing stalemate over the Afghan presidential election and the ongoing policy review in Washington, Merkel decided the time was not ripe to try to push through an increase in troops against possible SPD opposition. Vad also said that the Chancellery wanted to avoid the scenario where the government would seek to raise the ceiling in December, only to have to return to the Bundestag two or three months later and ask for another increase. MOD ISAF Action Officer Dirk Hamann said the U.S. strategic re-think also played a role in the Chancellor's decision to stick to the status quo. Merkel did not want to push for an increase in German troops, only to have the U.S. come out with a new approach that recommends against additional military forces. BUT SPD CLAIMS TO BE OPEN TO AN INCREASE ¶8. (C) When asked about the reports about Steinmeier's stance on the mandate, SPD Bundestag security affairs staffer Axel Schneider denied that the SPD had ruled out increase in the troop ceiling. In fact, he claimed that there would be broad support in the SPD for an increase in the troop ceiling of 500 to 1,000, in order to increase the size of the northern region quick reaction force (QRF) and to accelerate the training of the ANSF. Schneider said that the SPD supported COMISAF GEN McChrystal's proposal to increase the ANSF to 400,000 and realized that this would take additional foreign troops to accomplish. However, it was up to the government to request the increase in the troop ceiling and to make the case to the Bundestag. MAKING DO IN THE INTERIM ¶9. (C) With the Bundeswehr currently at 4,300 in Afghanistan, there is essentially no room under the current ceiling to deploy additional troops. When asked whether the Bundeswehr could afford to wait another 4-5 months without further reinforcements, Vad thought that some of the 2,200 soldiers in relatively peaceful Mazar-e Sharif could be shifted to Kunduz, where the most of the insurgent activity is concentrated. MOD ISAF Action Officer Dirk Hamann agreed, noting that MOD was already looking at options for "internal restructuring" to allow Kunduz to be reinforced with more troops. He confirmed that one option under consideration in this regard was withdrawing the German Tornado reconnaissance aircraft to allow the deployment of additional infantry soldiers. SEPARATE AWACS MANDATE IN JEOPARDY ¶10. (C) There is a separate mandate for Bundeswehr participation in the AWACS mission in Afghanistan, approved by the Bundestag last summer using expedited procedures. It has a troop ceiling of 300 and also expires in December. Wasielewski indicated that, given NATO's failure to find a place to station the aircraft or to get the required overflight rights, the government would probably allow the mandate to lapse. Wasielewski noted that the mandate had been heavily criticized by parliamentarians, who resented being rushed to pass the mandate, only to find out that it had not yet been used. ¶11. (C) Schneider agreed that the government was well-advised not to seek renewal of the AWACS mandate until NATO was really in a position to carry out the mission. He said that the SPD supported the AWACS deployment in principle, believing that it was critical to managing the growing amount of civilian and military air traffic over Afghanistan. Wasielewski noted that the proposed Bundeswehr support of the BERLIN 00001376 003 OF 003 temporary UK AWACS mission based out of Oman should not require a Bundestag mandate, since the German soldiers would not be serving in a conflict zone. COMMENT ¶12. (C) Merkel seems to have made up her mind about not considering any increase in the troop ceiling until after the Afghanistan conference early next year. Both outgoing Defense Minister Jung and new Defense Minister zu Guttenberg have made public comments in the past week confirming this stance. Our experience is that once the Chancellor has gone "public" on a matter like this, she sticks to her position. Nevertheless, the formal Cabinet decision on the mandate will not be taken until November 18, meaning that her visit to Washington next week still offers a small window of opportunity for reconsideration of the German position. If the President were prepared to preview the new U.S. approach for Merkel and lay out a compelling case for additional troops in the short run to implement the strategy, that could be a catalyst. ¶13. (C) Meanwhile, MFA and MOD officials are concerned that the U.S. will read Germany's reluctance to increase its troop ceiling in December as confirmation that Germany is not prepared to do what is required to meet the growing security challenges in the north, which they consider to be "their" area of responsibility. In fact, one of the most convincing arguments within German circles for a troop increase is to stave off a feared "Americanization" of the north, which German officials believe would embarrass the Bundeswehr and undermine support for continuation of the mission. It is in our interest to capitalize on the Germans' sense of "ownership" of the north in getting a commitment from both Chancellor Merkel and Foreign Minister Westerwelle during their visits next week to seriously re-consider a troop increase after the Afghanistan conference early next year, if, in fact, they rule out any increase before then. Murphy