GERMANY COULD HAVE NEW COALITION GOVERNMENT WITHIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001296 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL SUBJECT: GERMANY COULD HAVE NEW COALITION GOVERNMENT WITHIN TWO WEEKS REF: BERLIN 1271 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor George Glass for reasons 1. 4 (b,d). ¶1. (C//NF) Summary: A well-placed Free Democratic Party (FDP) source told Emboffs October 15 that Chancellor Angela Merkel aims to finish coalition negotiations between her Christian Democratic Union, the Christian Social Union, and the FDP by October 18, but that the FDP viewed a completion of October 23 to be more feasible. Either date would allow the parties to hold conventions to approve the agreement during the following days and enable the Bundestag to elect Angela Merkel Chancellor on October 28, one day after the first scheduled meeting of the new Bundestag. FDP source said that in any case, the virtually certain future Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle would want to do the Chancellor "the favor" of ensuring her election before her upcoming visit to Washington on November 2. A worst case scenario -- and least likely -- is that she would be elected by November 8, source said, just prior to the November 9 fall of the Wall anniversary. Source provided Emboffs with a list of the 15 mostly domestic-oriented points included in the FDP campaign platform that it wants to see included in the coalition agreement, including withdrawal of the remaining non-strategic nuclear weapons from German soil, the only one addressing foreign policy (reftel). End summary. ¶2. (C//NF) Source provided Emboffs with a schedule of the next days of the coalition negotiations. The schedule showed that the various working groups of the negotiations would each report to the plenary (see reftel) October 16-17, with a smaller group of the plenary then meeting on October 17 to iron out disputed issues and beginning discussions on division of the ministerial portfolios between the parties. Chancellor Merkel, source said, hopes to wrap up the coalition negotiations on October 18 after a full-day plenary session, a goal he described as "very ambitious but possible." Source noted that the FDP was not as optimistic that a conclusion could be reached as of October 18, and scheduled three more plenary sessions for October 21, 22 and ¶23. He noted that it is feasible that a coalition agreement could be concluded by that date and that the three parties would then hold conventions to approve the agreement in the days following. ¶3. (C//NF) This schedule would enable the Bundestag to then elect Merkel as Chancellor October 28, the day after its first plenary. Source noted, however, that the FDP has alerted the party of three possible party convention dates: October 25 -- if things go as plans, November 1 -- if negotiations are prolonged, or November 8 -- worst case scenario. Source said that it would not be "unattractive" for Westerwelle to attend the EU Summit October 29-30. This would be a good "debut" for Westerwelle, he added. In the event negotiations are prolonged, source said that Westerwelle would like to do the Chancellor "the favor" by enabling her to be elected Chancellor before she travels to Washington November 2. ¶4. (C//NF) About the actual negotiations, FDP source provided Emboffs with 15 points from their election platform that the FDP would like to see included in the coalition agreement. The majority of the 15 points focus on domestic economic and social issues, including structural tax reform, amendments to the social welfare and pension systems, and support for education. The points also include the goal of ending what is termed "unnecessary and ineffective" measures to censor the internet and preventing domestic military deployments. The final point, and the only one that concerns foreign policy, calls for "entering negotiations with our allies" in order to achieve a withdrawal of nuclear weapons stationed in Germany during the next legislative term. (Note: In response to Emboff questions, source said that the goal really is to develop a plan for the withdrawal of the nuclear weapons. End note.) FDP source said that conscription is a disputed issue that is still under discussion. Regarding Turkey's EU membership, FDP source said that the FDP would rather not include anything on this subject in the agreement, arguing that it will not be at issue during the next four years. ¶5. (C//NF) FDP source assessed that about 85 percent of the issues will be decided during this coming weekend. The FDP intends to keep the remaining 15 percent of the issues open and use them as bargaining tools for decisions on the division of ministerial portfolios. Regarding portfolios, FDP source commented off the record that current Interior Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble had been trying to serve as the CDU's "grey eminence," seeking to exert influence over many of the working groups, beyond his own working group of internal security. Source said that the FDP viewed his role negatively, and that he was referred to within the FDP as "an angry old man." He indicated that he hoped the CDU would also view his role as counterproductive. Source, however, noted that the agreement will only state which ministerial portfolios each party will receive, without providing any names. He stressed that it is up to each party to then decide who will fill those positions. Murphy