Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BERLIN1281
2009-10-14 13:01:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Berlin
Cable title:
GERMAN VIEWS ON STRENGTHENING IRAN SANCTIONS
how-toVZCZCXRO9822 OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR DE RUEHRL #1281 2871301 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 141301Z OCT 09 FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5479 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001281
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2024
TAGS: KNNP MNUC PARM UNSC PREL PGOV IR ETTC GM
SUBJECT: GERMAN VIEWS ON STRENGTHENING IRAN SANCTIONS
Classified By: Acting Political Section Chief Stan Otto for reasons 1.4
(C) and (D).
C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001281
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2024
TAGS: KNNP MNUC PARM UNSC PREL PGOV IR ETTC GM
SUBJECT: GERMAN VIEWS ON STRENGTHENING IRAN SANCTIONS
Classified By: Acting Political Section Chief Stan Otto for reasons 1.4
(C) and (D).
1. (C) Summary. During a friendly and frank discussion of
Iran that the Ambassador hosted in honor of Dr. Condoleezza
Rice on October 6, German parliamentarians, Chancellery and
MFA officials, and senior think-tank researchers agreed that
the international community was approaching an "end game"
with Iran regarding its nuclear program. German officials
are NOW hearing support for further sanctions coming from
regime opponents within Iran. However, the participants
disagreed on what the most effective strategy is for halting
Iran's development of a nuclear weapon, given the
questionable ability of the UN or EU to agree on sanctions.
End Summary.
2. (C) MFA State Secretary Silberberg saw three potential
areas for sanctions: transport, financial, and energy. In
any case, German law requires a UNSCR or an EU decision, both
of which will be difficult to gain. NSA Heusgen questioned
whether Russia would support a UNSC sanctions resolution. He
appeared uncertain of whether the new, harder Russian tone
toward Iran was a "real change or simply new tactics." He
thought that if Russian support was real, China likely would
follow the Russian lead. In the EU, Italy especially but
also Cyprus and Greece are difficult to bring along in a
sanctions decision, according to Silberberg. However, he
thought that "sanctions may work."
3. (C) Director of the German Institute for Security Affairs
(SWP) Perthes argued that sanctions rarely work unless they
impact directly the policy area they seek to influence. In
this case, to achieve a change in military policy, sanctions
have to hit the military sector. Specifically, an arms
embargo could work, but as the supplier of most Iranian
conventional arms, Russia is unlikely to agree to a total
arms embargo. In response, Rice expressed her hope that the
international community would consider a limited arms
embargo.
4. (C) Silberberg also shared that factions within the
Iranian leadership opposed to the president want sanctions in
the hope that this will weaken the president's position.
This is a new message, and underscores the notion that the
regime is NOW brittle. Perhaps sanctions could in this case
weaken the existing regime, he suggested.
Murphy
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2024
TAGS: KNNP MNUC PARM UNSC PREL PGOV IR ETTC GM
SUBJECT: GERMAN VIEWS ON STRENGTHENING IRAN SANCTIONS
Classified By: Acting Political Section Chief Stan Otto for reasons 1.4
(C) and (D).
1. (C) Summary. During a friendly and frank discussion of
Iran that the Ambassador hosted in honor of Dr. Condoleezza
Rice on October 6, German parliamentarians, Chancellery and
MFA officials, and senior think-tank researchers agreed that
the international community was approaching an "end game"
with Iran regarding its nuclear program. German officials
are NOW hearing support for further sanctions coming from
regime opponents within Iran. However, the participants
disagreed on what the most effective strategy is for halting
Iran's development of a nuclear weapon, given the
questionable ability of the UN or EU to agree on sanctions.
End Summary.
2. (C) MFA State Secretary Silberberg saw three potential
areas for sanctions: transport, financial, and energy. In
any case, German law requires a UNSCR or an EU decision, both
of which will be difficult to gain. NSA Heusgen questioned
whether Russia would support a UNSC sanctions resolution. He
appeared uncertain of whether the new, harder Russian tone
toward Iran was a "real change or simply new tactics." He
thought that if Russian support was real, China likely would
follow the Russian lead. In the EU, Italy especially but
also Cyprus and Greece are difficult to bring along in a
sanctions decision, according to Silberberg. However, he
thought that "sanctions may work."
3. (C) Director of the German Institute for Security Affairs
(SWP) Perthes argued that sanctions rarely work unless they
impact directly the policy area they seek to influence. In
this case, to achieve a change in military policy, sanctions
have to hit the military sector. Specifically, an arms
embargo could work, but as the supplier of most Iranian
conventional arms, Russia is unlikely to agree to a total
arms embargo. In response, Rice expressed her hope that the
international community would consider a limited arms
embargo.
4. (C) Silberberg also shared that factions within the
Iranian leadership opposed to the president want sanctions in
the hope that this will weaken the president's position.
This is a new message, and underscores the notion that the
regime is NOW brittle. Perhaps sanctions could in this case
weaken the existing regime, he suggested.
Murphy