WESTERWELLE FIRM ON REMOVAL OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001271 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV MNUC MARR GM SUBJECT: WESTERWELLE FIRM ON REMOVAL OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS FROM GERMANY IN COALITION NEGOTIATIONS REF: A. BERLIN 1162 ¶B. BERLIN 1241 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor George Glass for reasons 1. 4 (b,d). ¶1. (C//NF) Summary: A well-placed FDP source said that on the first day of coalition negotiations (October 5) between the CDU, CSU and the FDP, FDP leader Westerwelle argued for the removal of the remaining non-strategic nuclear weapons from German soil. Interior Minister Schaeuble (CDU) asserted that the weapons serve as a deterrent. Other foreign policy issues discussed included support for Afghanistan and Turkey's accession to the EU. Source said that Chancellor Merkel (CDU) may push to complete the negotiations by October 18, but noted that the FDP is in no hurry. He provided Emboffs with a list of the membership of the negotiations plenary and working groups as well as timetable. Cabinet composition will only be decided at the end of coalition negotiations. End summary. Westerwelle Firm on Removal of Nuclear Weapons -------------- - ¶2. (C//NF) Formal coalition negotiations between Guido Westerwelle's Free Democratic Party (FDP),Chancellor Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) on a coalition agreement began on October ¶5. FDP strategist shared with Emboffs and visiting Senior Germany Desk Officer October 7 information on issues discussed during the first two days of these negotiations as well as the negotiations schedule and working group make-up. Source serves as his party's notetaker for the negotiations and has been a long-standing close Embassy contact. ¶3. (C//NF) Source said that on October 5 negotiations included discussion on arms control in general and removal of the remaining non-strategic nuclear weapons from German soil. He said that Federal Interior Minister Schaeuble argued that the weapons serve as a deterrent to Iran. (Note: Regarding Schaeuble, source commented that he is "neurotic" in that he sees threats everywhere. He questioned whether Schaeuble's influence is as great as it once was and whether he will stay in his position. End note.) According to source, Westerwelle asserted that nuclear weapons on German soil do not serve as a deterrent against Iran since they could not reach Iran. He said that Westerwelle underlined that President Obama is moving forward toward a "nuclear-free world" and that he wants Germany to be in the lead. Source said that Chancellor Merkel quipped in response that Germany is not that important in this regard -- the world would hardly take notice if there were action on this matter. According to source, Merkel wanted to avoid discussion of this topic. Source also said that there was criticism of Social Democratic Party Foreign Minister Steinmeier that he did not respond adequately to President Obama's Prague speech in which he discussed arms control. In response to Poloff query, source said that the issue of removal of nuclear weapons is very important to Westerwelle and that he could well seek to include something specific in the coalition agreement. Turkey's EU Membership; Afghanistan; Transatlantic Relations -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C//NF) Source said that Turkey's accession to the EU was also discussed, with general agreement that Turkey is not ready for membership and could not fulfill membership criteria. Source said that there was agreement that no decision would have to be reached on this issue within the next four years in any case. Westerwelle also spoke against any type of automatic decision in favor of membership for Turkey. There was also general agreement that the EU is not ready for new members at this time beyond Croatia. ¶5. (C//NF) Afghanistan was also an issue, but source only noted that there was general agreement on the need to continue efforts in Afghanistan. Source also stressed that the three parties support strong transatlantic relations and continuity in foreign policy. The Devil's in the Details; What's the Rush? -------------- ¶6. (C//NF) Source assessed some differences in Merkel's and Westerwelle's approach to the negotiations, although he also noted that the atmosphere was "very friendly and relaxed." He observed that Merkel preferred less detail and more general provisions, whereas Westerwelle was interested in a detailed agreement that would guide the coalition over the next four years. In addition, source noted that Merkel is trying to push the negotiations along since she would like to have the new government in place before she travels to Washington in early November and before the EU summit at the end of October. Source indicated that Westerwelle might try to use Merkel's desire for speed to his advantage in the negotiations. While he did not indicate that the FDP would prolong negotiations intentionally, he noted that the FDP was in no hurry to complete them. Ministries Divided Among Parties Last -------------- ¶7. (C//NF) Regarding the possible make-up of the cabinet, source said that no decisions will be made until the end of coalition negotiations and that the current membership of working groups should not be seen as an indication of who will end up in which ministry (see ref B). Source also said that the coalition agreement may only say which ministerial posts go to which coalition parties, without any names being given. The names would only be provided later, perhaps after the Chancellor is voted in by the Bundestag. Source noted that only two positions are certain: Angela Merkel will be Chancellor and Guido Westerwelle will be Vice Chancellor. He added that Westerwelle will most likely also become the next foreign minister. He then commented that during October 5 negotiations, Economics Minister zu Guttenberg demonstrated his interest in foreign policy and Hermann Otto Solms (FDP) showed he could play an increasingly important role in the financial area. Source provided Emboffs with the names of those serving in the plenary rounds of the negotiations and a schedule of when those rounds will take place. --Plenary Members from the CDU: Chancellor Merkel, Interior Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, Chancellery Chief Thomas de Maziere, Education Minister Annette Shavan, CDU/CSU Caucus Chief Volker Kauder, CDU General Secretary Ronald Pofalla, Minister President of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) Juergen Ruettgers, Minister President of Hesse Roland Koch, Minister President of Lower Saxony Christian Wulff. --Plenary Members from the CSU: Minister President of Bavaria and CSU Chair Horst Seehofer, Economics Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, Head of CSU Bundestag group Peter Ramsauer, CSU Secretary General Alexander Dobrindt, Bavaria State Parliament President Barbara Stamm, Bavaria Plenipotentiary Markus Soeder, Bavaria Finance Minister Georg Fahrenschon, Bavaria Justice Minister Beate Merk. --Plenary Members from the FDP: Party Chair Guido Westerwelle, FDP Secretary General Dirk Niebel, Bundestag Vice President Hermann Otto Solms, FDP Deputy Caucus Chairperson Birgit Homburger, Lower Saxony Minister for Economics Philipp Roesler, FDP deputy chair Rainer Bruederle, Deputy Minister President for NRW Andreas Pinkwart, Deputy Chairperson Bundestag Education Committee Cornelia Pieper, Bavaria State Chairperson Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C//NF) Westerwelle has made the removal of nuclear weapons from Germany one of his flagship issues in the foreign policy arena and has raised this in various fora in the past. It is not clear how hard he will push to have a specific provision on this included in the coalition agreement. Judging by source's description of the discussion, Merkel would rather have a more general provision regarding disarmament included and preferred to avoid prolonged discussion on this issue. ¶9. (C//NF) The CDU/CSU is the only party that still supports German participation in the NATO nuclear share and the deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons in Germany. While the CDU/CSU leadership is willing to fight for the current policy, it is concerned that the ongoing Nuclear Posture Review could significantly change U.S. policy on the deployment of non-strategic nuclear weapons in Europe, putting it at a significant political disadvantage vis-a-vis the rest of the German political establishment. In fact, senior Chancellery officials have already requested that they be pre-notified about any possible change in U.S. policy (ref C). We expect that in these coalition negotiations, the CDU/CSU may hedge their bets against a possible U.S. policy change by agreeing to language that commits the next government to seek consultations on this issue at NATO, with the caveat that any decision must be made by the Alliance as a whole and must take account of the large number of Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons oriented against NATO member states. Post will seek meetings with source after the plenary negotiation rounds to see if additional readouts are possible. ¶10. (C//NF) FDP source is a young, up-and-coming party loyalist, who has offered Emboffs internal party documents in the past. Excited with his role as FDP negotiations notetaker, he seemed happy to share his observations and insights and read to us directly from his notes. He also provided copies of documents from his "negotiations" binder. Murphy