MEDIA REACTION: DPRK, AFGHANISTAN, IMF, ECONOMIC, HONDURAS,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 BERLIN 001258 STATE FOR INR/R/MR, EUR/PAPD, EUR/PPA, EUR/CE, INR/EUC, INR/P, SECDEF FOR USDP/ISA/DSAA, DIA FOR DC-4A VIENNA FOR CSBM, CSCE, PAA "PERISHABLE INFORMATION -- DO NOT SERVICE" SIPDIS E.0. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO KN AF EFIN ELAB HO US EU SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: DPRK, AFGHANISTAN, IMF, ECONOMIC, HONDURAS, DOLLAR, OBAMA, EU;Berlin ¶1. Lead Stories Summary ¶2. (DPRK) U.S. Relations ¶3. (Afghanistan) Future U.S. Strategy ¶4. (Economic) IMF/World Bank Meeting in Istanbul ¶5. (Economic) U.S. Labor Market Policy ¶6. (Honduras) Power Struggle ¶7. (Economic) Weakness of The Dollar ¶8. (U.S.) Obama Administration ¶9. (EU) Future of Lisbon Treaty ¶1. Lead Stories Summary Newspapers led with a variety of stories. Frankfurter Allgemeine led with a report on perceived disarray in U.S. leadership regarding future strategy in Afghanistan, while Sueddeutsche reported that Deutsche Bahn will increase its fares. Die Welt highlighted the gap in the healthcare fund and the two Berlin dailies focused on a decision by Berlin's Constitutional Court that allowed two petitions for a referendum. Editorials focused on the coalition talks, the future of the SPD, and the plan of Deutsche Bahn to increase fares. ZDF-TV's early evening newscast heute opened with a report on the coalition talks, while ARD-TV's early evening newscast Tagesschau opened with a story on the gap in the healthcare fund. ¶2. (DPRK) U.S. Relations In a lengthy report, "North Korea Sets New Conditions in Nuclear Conflict," Sueddeutsche Zeitung wrote that "China was unable to prompt North Korea to return to nuclear talks. During a trip to the communist neighboring country, China's Minister President Wen Jiabao was unable to achieve a breakthrough. Pyongyang rather set a new condition for a return to the negotiating table. North Korea's dictator Kim Jong-il told his Chinese visitor that progress in bilateral North Korean relations must be achieved before North Korea returns to the Six-Party talks. At the same time, there are indications from SoQh Korea that North Korea is pushing the reconstruction of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities." Under the headline: "Time for Negotiations," Sueddeutsche Zeitung (10/07) argued: "Since China is either unwilling or unable to exert greater pressure on Kim Jong-il, President Obama must shoulder the responsibility of implementing an effective policy towards North Korea. But for much too long, Washington's foreign policy has neglected this trouble spot on the Korean peninsula. The U.S. government is strongly considering sending a special envoy to Pyongyang. This would be a good first step. It would be illogical for the U.S. to refuse to enter into talks when the North Korean, recognition-craving dictator so desperately wants them. If a military option is unthinkable, then talks under set preconditions must take place. In the long run, Obama should have the courage to implement a new strategy in North Korea. This includes genuinely listening to the North Koreans. For years, they have repeated at every opportunity that they want better relations with the United States. If Washington BERLIN 00001258 002 OF 006 accepted this request garnished with tough disarmament demands, Kim could be forced to negotiate. But currently, both sides are watching each other closely, and no one wants to make the first step, while the dictator continues to build the bomb." ¶3. (Afghanistan) Future U.S. Strategy Several papers (10/07) picked up Secretary Gates' statement on the commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, General McChrystal, noting that Gates said on CNN that advice should be given to the President privately. Under the headline "America's leadership at odds over strategy on Afghanistan," Frankfurter Allgemeine led with a report saying that "the debate about the mission in Afghanistan is becoming more critical in the U.S. and Britain." Sddeutsche headlined: "U.S.: no withdrawal from Afghanistan," and added that, "in the fierce debate over the approach on Afghanistan, the White House ruled out withdrawing [from Afghanistan]." Tagesspiegel headlined "U.S. calls on NATO partners in Afghanistan," quoting Gates as saying: "The reality is that because of our inability and the inability, frankly, of our allies to put enough troops into Afghanistan, the Taliban have the momentum right now, it seems." Under the headline "Rebellion in the Pentagon," Berliner Zeitung (10/07) analyzed "Barack Obama wanted to make the far-reaching decision calmly and after careful consideration. That's impossible as civilian and military leaders in Washington debate the future strategy on Afghanistan in public.... There is even talk of a rebellion of generals.... Obama is having difficulties with the military advice of his commander in Afghanistan.... Since the massive election fraud, Washington is increasingly doubtful over whether Afghanistan's problems can be resolved with more troops.... Influential advisors are therefore suggesting more modest goals: containing the Taliban, airstrikes against al Qaida.... At the end of the day, Obama will have to decide whether he believes that the hope of achieving a more stable Afghanistan is still realistic." Frankfurter Rundschau carries the same analytic article under the headline "Rebellion of the generals." [Note: Berliner Zeitung and Frankfurter Rundschau belong to the same publishing house, Neven DuMont, and increasingly share reports.] Under the headline "Failure on the home front," FT Deutschland (10/07) editorialized: "For the U.S. President, the most important front in the war against the Taliban is not in Afghanistan, but at home. Obama is facing a strategic landmark: he must decide whether to meet the demands of his commander McChrystal for more troops - or whether to support those who favor a complete change of strategy; withdrawing soldiers to focus on the targeted fight against al Qaida. The BERLIN 00001258 003 OF 006 President's problem is that, regardless of what his decision will be, the war he inherited from his predecessor will become his war entirely....The eroding support for the mission on the home front has parallels with the Iraq war. Bush also had to make the strategically difficult decision to deploy more troops in Iraq against the will of the people, instead of withdrawing. As heated as the debate in the U.S. currently is, Afghanistan might turn into a similar debacle, just like Obama's health care reform. In both cases, discussion has broken out.... Just as Obama did not for a long time make clear his plans for the health care reform, his details on Afghanistan also remain vague.... The White House is failing to dominate the debate - also because Obama still seems to be undecided. The longer it takes to reach a decision, the lower the approval of the mission will be." ¶4. (Economic) IMF/World Bank Meeting in Istanbul Several dailies (10/07) reported on the meeting of the IMF and the World Bank in Istanbul. All papers focus on the riots that broke out during the meeting. "Riots Overshadowing Discussion Over IMF Reform," headlined Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. The sub-headline of the report states: "The IMF wants greater power because of the Economic Crisis, but Bundesbank President Weber is Opposed." The paper reported: "In the meantime, the reform of the IMF has resulted in little progress measured against previous expectations. The reform of voting rights is especially controversial. The threshold countries in particular are pressing for greater influence, but representatives of the industrialized countries, among them the Bundesbank, insist on previous principles according to which the voting rights should correspond to the capital shares and the financial burden of the donor countries. IMF critics blame in particular Germany, France and the UK for demonstrating an adamant attitude." Handelsblatt (10/07) and Die Welt (10/07) carried front-page pictures of broken windows, the result of turmoil between police and protesters who clashed at the IMF/World Bank meeting in Istanbul. A caption from Die Welt reads: "For many protesters, the IMF is considered a symbol of global capitalism, because for a long time, its support for developing nations was linked to painful economic reforms." Handelsblatt wrote: "While demonstrators accused the IMF of being co- responsible for the economic crisis, IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn called for greater power for his organization to safeguard the stability of financial markets. World Bank President Robert Zoellick called for a greater say of the poorer countries." BERLIN 00001258 004 OF 006 ¶5. (Economic) U.S. Labor Market Policy Under the headline: "Obama's Flash in the Pan," Frankfurter Allgemeine (10/07) opined: "Barack Obama is racking his brains on how he can help the sluggish labor market. The economic stimulus package the President and Congress approved in February, has not yet achieved its desired effect. A lasting reduction of the tax burden on corporations with a profound tax reform would certainly be more useful. But such a restructuring should be linked to savings at other places in the budget. But regrettably, neither Obama nor Congress will show the political courage and will for the foreseeable future to implement such moves. But they should not stick to plans which would at best be a flash in the pan and even increase the indebtedness of the state at the expense of future generations." Under the headline: "What America Teaches Us," Sueddeutsche Zeitung (10/07) judged: "Those who want to know what is going to happen in the global economy should study the U.S. labor market. Since the beginning of the recession, more than 7.2 million jobs have been lost and despite the biggest economic stimulus program in U.S. history, the cutting of jobs will continue next year. This worrying development is first of all evidence of how weak the U.S. economy still is. No one is certain of the best way to create new jobs. Only one thing is clear: Good jobs require a good education. A reform of the U.S. schooling system is a central point in President Obama's program and it is, therefore, of strategic significance. But the crisis underway in the U.S. labor market also has a global perspective. The global economy can only recover if global imbalances are reduced, i.e. if surplus countries such as China and Germany concentrate more on the growth of their internal markets. For Germany, this means economic reforms which make investments in the country more attractive." ¶6. (Honduras) Power Struggle Frankfurter Allgemeine (10/07) argued: "Despite the return of former Honduran President Zelaya and despite the dwindling support for his successor, Micheletti, there has been some movement in the political trench warfare in Honduras. This gives reason to hope, as every additional day will shorten the period until the presidential elections in November. Six candidates, who represent the entire political spectrum of the country, are running for president. The solution to the constitutional conflict in Honduras could be very simple. The current government subjects the election campaign and the elections to international supervision, and the elected president will enter office in January. Micheletti would be willing to accept this BERLIN 00001258 005 OF 006 solution, but Zelaya and his wirepullers in Venezuela and Cuba will still have to accept that their game is over. This could be the task for the OAS delegation, which is en route to Honduras." ¶7. (Economic) Weakness of The Dollar "Rumors Without Substance," the headline in Sueddeutsche Zeitung, reports that according to British dailies the Gulf states together with China, Russia, Japan, and Brazil want to replace the dollar in crude oil trade. The daily judged: "Such rumors are again fashionable because many economic experts are dreaming of a new financial market order. The fact that the Gulf states in particular want to replace the dollar with a new basket of oil currencies sounds like a conspiracy burlesque. But such a plan would have no use for the Gulf states, because they sit on billions of dollars that serve as a long- term investment. If Saudis and Kuwaitis are really considering such scenarios, the greenback would face additional pressure. But no investor voluntarily damages himself by creating doubts about the currency in which he has made his investments." ¶8. (U.S.) Obama Administration Under the headline: "Enough of the Nice Words," Die Welt opined: "The cheers [of the right-wing in the United States] after Chicago's failure [to get the 2016 Olympics] was pubertal, unfair, and basically un-American. But it was even worse that the triumph of the President's enemies also stimulated a still unacknowledged fear of his admirers: Has Barack Obama, the people whisperer, lost his magic? Is he only a magician who speaks nice words, but who does not know what he wants and does not achieve anything? There has been an increasingly irritated undertone in the liberal and left-leaning U.S. press. There is an Obama, the eternal hesitator, and there is an Obama, who wants to justice for everyone. The question is what does Obama want, and what political capital is he willing to invest for his convictions? These are the questions which leave many of his admirers feeling helpless. If he considers a public option reasonable, why has he never said this with clear words? Why is he refraining from using his clear mandate in Congress to strive to implement his ideas, even though some may fail? Why can Obama not be more pigheaded instead of balking at the consequences of his ideas? How could he idly stand by in August as people compared him with a mass murderer, toyed with associations to lynch him and made shrill statements against his healthcare reform plans? Some people say that the president must become more mature and turn from a symbol of change to a leader of change. But he must give those who believe in him a chance for BERLIN 00001258 006 OF 006 success or at least clarity. We have heard enough nice words." ¶9. (EU) Future of Lisbon Treaty Frankfurter Allgemeine (10/07) editorialized on the front page: "In case the conservatives win the elections next spring, Tory leader Cameron promised the people a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty-if it has not come into force by then. It takes little imagination as to what the outcome of such a referendum would be: The Lisbon Treaty would be as dead as a doornail. Cameron can only secretly wish that he does not have to keep his promise. If Britain scraps the treaty it has already ratified, it would snub the other member states; and a Prime Minister Cameron would certainly not have an easy beginning among the other state and government leaders. Cameron might rather snub his EU skeptics.... The idea that Tony Blair, a man of yesterday, should be a suitable EU President is difficult to understand. Not just the Tories want to prevent him." MURPHY