NPT REVCON: GERMANY UNDERSCORES NEED TO REASSURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 001169 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2019 TAGS: AORC CDG ENRG KNNP MNUC PARM PGOV PREL IAEA NPT, GM SUBJECT: NPT REVCON: GERMANY UNDERSCORES NEED TO REASSURE NAM, TREAD CAREFULLY AT NUCLEAR SECURITY SUMMIT REF: A. STATE 83600 ¶B. BERLIN 1004 ¶C. BERLIN 187 Classified By: Political M/C George Glass for reasons 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Post addressed ref A questions about German positions on non-proliferation in refs B & C. During subsequent meetings, German officials have also emphasized the need to overcome NAM suspicions that non-proliferation efforts are veiled attempts to infringe on NPT Article IV rights. Moreover, the April 2010 Nuclear Security Summit must be seen as supporting the NPT Review Conference, not as an attempt to pre-cook its outcome. Germany will give the U.S. room to work on ratification of the CTBT and is ready to get to work on the FMCT in January at the Conference on Disarmament sessions. It is safe to assume that whichever government coalition emerges from the September 27 German parliamentary election will have arms control and disarmament high on its agenda. End summary. ¶2. (C) On September 14, MFA Arms Control Chief Peter Gottwald told POL M/C that Germany was in broad agreement with USG non-proliferation and disarmament objectives. However, he emphasized that the U.S. must work to convince NAM countries that Global Zero goals would not infringe on their NPT Article IV rights. Gottwald added that he was already working to fend off suspicions that leaders would pre-cook the results of the 2010 NPT Review Conference during President Obama's Nuclear Security Summit -- now scheduled for April 2010, just five weeks before the RevCon. However, Gottwald said he was satisfied with assurances from U.S. sherpa Gary Samore that the summit would deal exclusively with nuclear security and avoid discussions on non-proliferation. ¶3. (C) Separately, MFA Deputy Office Director for Nuclear Disarmament and Non-proliferation Stephan Kordasch said that Germany had not yet seen a concrete path toward the USG's professed non-proliferation goals. As a way forward, he emphasized the need to better couple the securing of fissile material with disarmament efforts by nuclear states. Kordasch also underscored the need for the U.S. to earn support from Brazil and Egypt -- Brazil, because it is influential and shares U.S./German objectives and Egypt for its ability to mobilized countries in its role as NAM Chair. ¶4. (C) Kordasch echoed the frequently-voiced concern that a failed RevCon in 2010 would weaken confidence in the NPT and hoped the RevCon would produce a consensus document that strengthened all three NPT pillars: disarmament, non-proliferation, and peaceful uses. However, he feared that NAM expectations on disarmament were "sky high" -- an assessment also voiced by experts at a recent Boell Foundation non-proliferation conference in Berlin. Kordasch agreed that non-proliferation efforts would, of course, be important. However, he said Germany placed particular weight on addressing issues of non-compliance and withdrawal from the NPT. -------------- Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) -------------- ¶5. (C) Though greatly encouraged by President Obama's Prague speech in April, Kordasch said German officials understood that the U.S. would still need more time to build congressional support for ratification of the CTBT. He reiterated that Germany would be willing to offer public support if USG officials believed it would be helpful. Specifically, Kordasch suggested that Germany could make public statements reasserting that the CTBT would not negatively impact U.S. ability to uphold its NATO nuclear responsibilities. -------------- Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) -------------- ¶6. (C) According to Kordasch, Germany is anxious to start substantive work toward the FMCT when the next Conference on Disarmament session kicks off in January. He emphasized the need to keep up pressure on Pakistan in order to make progress. BERLIN 00001169 002 OF 002 -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Arms control and disarmament remain core tenets of all the major political parties in Germany and we expect no major shift on these fronts after national elections on September 27. Free Democratic Party (FDP) Chair Guido Westerwelle, who is likely to be the next foreign minister if his party and Chancellor Merkel's Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) win a parliamentary majority, has said that the motto of the MFA under his leadership will be "peace through disarmament." Like FM Steinmeier and his Social Democratic Party (SPD) colleagues, Westerwelle has also spoken out in favor of removing all remaining nuclear weapons from German territory. Therefore, it is safe to assume that whichever government coalition emerges from the September 27 election will have arms control and disarmament high on its agenda. End comment. Murphy