GERMAN ELECTIONS: MERKEL-STEINMEIER TV DEBATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 001136 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: GM PGOV SUBJECT: GERMAN ELECTIONS: MERKEL-STEINMEIER TV DEBATE SHOWS MORE DUET THAN DUEL ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The September 13 90-minute television debate between Chancellor and Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party chief Angela Merkel and Vice Chancellor and Social Democratic Party (SPD) chancellor candidate Frank-Walter Steinmeier will probably have little lasting effect on the electorate and shows why neither candidate has been able to generate public enthusiasm. While both said they want to end the CDU/Christian Social Union (CSU)-SPD Grand Coalition, they also praised its achievements and refrained from personal attacks. This left the press to argue that the discussion seemed, in the words of Stern magazine, "more like an appointment for a grand coalition" than a contest between political opponents. Telephone polls taken after the debate indicate that Steinmeier did better than expected (not a tall order in light of his lackluster campaigning to date) but Merkel remains the public's clear preference as chancellor. Substantively, the two differed mostly on taxes, nuclear energy, and the minimum wage. They showed unity on foreign policy, both in terms of the need for more international regulation of financial markets and greater efforts to produce enough stability in Afghanistan to allow for an eventual withdrawal of troops. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) SPD chancellor candidate and Foreign Minister Steinmeier had the most riding on last night's debate due to his challenger status and his party's distant second in all recent opinion polls. Steinmeier rose to the occasion, giving a relatively feisty performance that left most commentators describing him as the narrow victor. Telephone polls taken after the debate show that he did score points with undecided voters, who according to an ARD-sponsored poll found him more convincing by a 45-37 percent plurality. A Politbarometer telephone poll also indicates that he was able to convince SPD voters that he was the right choice as chancellor, and he may have helped to shore up SPD support after the party lost voters to both the Greens and Left Party in recent state elections. His performance may also serve to mobilize SPD supporters to vote on election day. Steinmeier emphasized the need for a Social Democratic presence in the government, promoting social and economic justice. He argued that a CDU/CSU coalition with the pro-market Free Democratic Party (FDP) would primarily serve the interests of big business and the wealthy. While he praised the Grand Coalition, Steinmeier argued that the CDU/CSU has blocked SPD proposals for a national minimum wage and limits on executive salaries. Despite his claim to be seeking the chancellorship, he seemed to be arguing more for continuation of the Grand Coalition and could not directly say how he would put together a government in which he would be chancellor. ¶3. (SBU) Merkel began the debate by praising the grand coalition but insisted that a CDU/CSU-FDP coalition would be more likely to reduce taxes and produce the economic growth needed to get Germany out of its current recession. Telephone polls show that Merkel continues to be viewed as the more competent of the two by a 51-31 majority but she also did less well than expected. Merkel talked convincingly about her accomplishments, but as a Sueddeutsche Zeitung commentator noted on Monday, made no gestures to the conservative, southern Catholic voters who are the core of the CDU/CSU's electoral support. She did look chancellor-like, however, and as the Politbarometer poll shows, those who watched the debate still prefer her as chancellor by a 55-38 percent majority, down somewhat from the 64-29 percent majority of those polled before the debate. ¶4. (SBU) Most of the discussion was focused on economic policy, and perhaps the most interesting story of the night was the non-debate over Afghanistan. Despite the controversy during the last two weeks concerning the bombing in Kunduz, Afghanistan was discussed only briefly. Steinmeier corrected erroneous press reports this weekend claiming that a Ministry of Foreign Affairs plan would call for withdrawal by 2013; he insisted his goal was to create the conditions for withdrawal but he did not name a date. Merkel agreed with her Foreign Minister. None of the moderators raised the Afghan report that claimed 30 civilians had been killed in the bombing, and the lack of controversy suggests the public is willing to give the government the benefit of the doubt when German forces are under threat, particularly when local Afghan officials have defended German actions. ¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: Last night's debate, with an estimated audience of 14.2 million viewers (down from the 21 million Germans who watched Merkel and Schroeder in 2005),may help Steinmeier shore up and mobilize his Social Democratic base but is unlikely to have any real impact on the election. The race remains too close to call, with the CDU/CSU and FDP within reach of a parliamentary majority but with no one sure that, as in 2002 and 2005, a black-yellow coalition may once again fall short. Merkel's defense of the Grand Coalition BERLIN 00001136 002 OF 002 and her rather tepid call for a change in government suggests that she is keeping her options open, and she did little last night to fire up her base. The election may rest in the hands of the minor parties and their level of support. Recent opinion polls indicate a plurality of the public wants a change in coalitions, but Merkel and Steinmeier seem unwilling or unable to give a convincing explanation of why such change is necessary. END COMMENT. Murphy Murphy