Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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09BERLIN1020 | 2009-08-21 14:52:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Berlin |
1. (U) Chancellor Angela Merkel (Christian Democratic Union - CDU) used a high-level CDU gathering in Weimar on August 18 to rally eastern Germany's CDU for the upcoming state (August 30) and parliamentary elections (September 27). Merkel told her party that electoral success for Thuringian Minister-President Dieter Althaus, Saxony Minister-President Stanislaw Tillich, and Brandenburg Vice Minister-President Johanna Wanka was critical to securing the CDU's electoral fortunes on September 27 and to consolidating the party's foothold in eastern Germany. Merkel raised the specter of Social Democratic Party (SPD) and Left Party coalitions in east German states. Thuringia was the prime example where Left Party Bundestag member and minister-president candidate Bodo Ramelow is viewed as a threat to the CDU's fortunes. Merkel said the CDU would do everything to prevent such a coalition from becoming political reality. Each CDU Minister-President at the event warned of "experimenting" with the political left, especially the radical Left Party, thereby making abundantly clear how sensitive the CDU has become to potential left wing majorities in future state elections. End summary. STUDY THE PAST IF YOU WOULD DIVINE THE FUTURE -------------------------- 2. (U) Chancellor Merkel was greeted by several hundred east German party faithful with a rapturous standing ovation upon her arrival at the Weimar venue August 18, which PolOff attended. She took the opportunity to reflect on and draw conclusions from Germany's history twenty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall and sixty years after the founding of the Federal Republic. She thanked former Chancellor Helmut Kohl for his efforts in pursuing German unification. But she chastised those -- Oskar Lafontaine (former SPD Party Chairman and now Left Party Chairman) and former SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder -- for their initial opposition. 3. (U) Three CDU Minister-Presidents, including one aspiring CDU Minister-President from the state of Brandenburg also appeared. The meeting's principal objective was to reflect on eastern Germany's economic development since 1990 and to assess the CDU's record of job creation, particularly through investment. Chancellor Merkel and her CDU Minister-Presidents emphasized the importance of innovative renewable energy programs and electric car technologies, as well as improving education programs to produce more qualified job-seekers. The contents of the CDU's "Governing Program, 2009-2013" set the tone for Merkel's remarks and for the comments made by a roundtable of east German CDU Minister-Presidents. 4. (U) So as not to alienate the older east German generation, Merkel stressed that, "Not all was bad in the former GDR." She further noted that after reunification the eastern states controlled by the CDU were economic and environmental innovators par excellence, which were crucial to Germany's economic recovery. Merkel highlighted the need for better education and more focus on engineering, mathematics, and science, especially for women. Merkel tied economic recovery in Germany's eastern states to the CDU's remaining in power. Merkel briefly switched campaign mode when she described as a "sad game" the national SPD's decision to allow the party at the state level to determine coalitions with the Left Party. COMMENT -------------------------- 5. (C) Six weeks before the national parliamentary elections, Chancellor Merkel continues to frustrate the SPD opposition with her calculated strategy of avoiding any confrontation with them and their Chancellor-candidate Frank-Walter Steinmeier. In Weimar, she confirmed that on her home turf in eastern Germany she feels very comfortable talking about the former German Democratic Republic's historical legacy, while at the same playing up the strength of the eastern Germans to overcome adversity, especially during the current economic crisis. This was very well received. She did not use the occasion to score political points or to take the fight to the SPD; she acted like a stateswoman who, for now, can stand above the fray of petty political squabbles. One could almost detect Merkel's pity for her SPD opponents as they struggle to define a coherent electoral strategy to begin cutting the CDU's double-digit BERLIN 00001020 002 OF 002 lead in the polls. 6. (C) CDU Director of Marketing and Communications and Coordinator of Federal State Campaigns Oliver Roeseler (please protect) told PolOff before the Weimar event that Chancellor Merkel's electoral strategy was to consciously avoid getting into details on tax and economic policy. It remains to be seen whether the SPD can compel her to respond in more detail when it inevitably ups the ante with more aggressive attacks on the CDU platform and record in the final month before the election. A TV duel between Merkel and Steinmeier on September 13 may prod the Chancellor to take off her political gloves. It is more likely, however, that both Merkel and Steinmeier -- who have worked well with each other over the years -- will debate in a calm and factual manner, without eliciting any strong response from the public. According to one "Stern Magazine" commentator, Hans Peter Schuetz, Merkel's campaign will begin in earnest on September 15 when she traces former CDU Chancellor Konrad Adenauer's footsteps by traveling by train from Rhoendorf (Adenauer's home) to Berlin via Bonn and Leipzig. Unfortunately, Adenauer's train collided with a tractor near Koblenz; Merkel will be hoping that her train and her electoral campaign remain unscathed up to the parliamentary elections. End comment. 7. (U) For more information about the German parliamentary elections, visit Embassy Berlin's Unclassified web page at http://www.intelink.gov/wiki/2009 German Elections. You can visit out Classified web page at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/2009 German Elections. Murphy |