H1N1 UPDATE: 12,830 CONFIRMED CASES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 001012 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/CE PETER SCHROEDER STATE FOR OES/IHB STATE FOR AID/GH/HIDN USDA PASS TO APHIS HHS PASS TO CDC HHS FOR OGHA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: TBIO KFLU ECON PREL SOCI CASC EAGR MX GM SUBJECT: H1N1 UPDATE: 12,830 CONFIRMED CASES REF: A) Berlin 1007, B) Berlin 1001 and previous. ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: The number of confirmed H1N1 infections in Germany increased over the past two days by 710 new cases, bringing the total as of August 19 to 12,830. The daily rate of increase has slightly declined. On August 19, the Cabinet approved a Health Ministry regulation on establishing procedures for mass vaccination for this fall. END SUMMARY ¶2. (U) At its August 18 press briefing, the National Reference Center for Influenza at the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) confirmed a total of 373 new (laboratory and non-laboratory) H1N1 cases in Germany, increasing the total number of H1N1 cases to 12,493. New cases were distributed among six federal states: North Rhine-Westphalia (126),Lower-Saxony (113), Baden-Wuerttemberg (78),Bavaria (44),Hamburg (8), Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (3) and Berlin (1). ¶3. (U) At its August 19 press briefing, the National Reference Center for Influenza at the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) confirmed a total of 337 new (laboratory and non-laboratory) H1N1 cases in Germany over yesterday. This increases the total number of H1N1 cases to 12,830. New cases today were distributed among twelve federal states: North Rhine- Westphalia (110),Baden-Wuerttemberg (64),Rhineland- Palatinate (47),Hesse (22),Saxony-Anhalt (22),Hamburg (19), Saxony (13),Berlin (11),Brandenburg (9),Thuringia (8), Lower-Saxony (7) and Bremen (5). ¶4. (U) RKI reported that the daily increase rate of new confirmed cases has slightly decreased over the past few days. (Comment: According to Post statistical records, the 7 day moving average of the daily growth rate has recently dropped to three percent, from a recent high of 15 percent in late July. To date we have noted two periods of marked increase of infection in Germany, with roughly 40-day periods between peaks and troughs. Our data suggests that we are entering another trough. End Comment.) According to RKI, 510 of the total 710 new cases are attributed to people returning from travel abroad. New cases include also non-laboratory H1N1 cases from people who exhibited symptoms after being in contact with a laboratory confirmed infected person. So far, all new cases are reportedly mild. ¶5. (U) North Rhine-Westphalia remains the German state with the highest number of confirmed virus cases with a total of 4,482, followed by Lower-Saxony (2,185) and Baden-Wuerttemberg (1,521 cases). About 23 percent (2,946) of all confirmed infections in Germany have resulted from domestic transmission. ¶6. (U) The cabinet passed a Health Ministry regulation on August 19 that regulates the H1N1 vaccination planned for this fall. According to the regulation, health companies will have to cover the costs of vaccinating the first 50 percent of the German population (41 million people). For the other half, the government and Laender will use tax revenues to pay for the costs. Health Minister Ulla Schmidt (SPD) said that anyone who would like to be vaccinated against the new flu will receive it. A vaccination series (which will consist of two doses) will cost 28 Euro. Priority will be given to individuals who are likely to have contact with infected people such as medical personnel, police and fire officers as well as people with medical conditions, including pregnant women. The execution of the mass vaccination is the responsibility of the federal states. German Export Not Affected by New Flu -------------- ¶7. (U) According to the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK),Germany's foreign trade has not yet been BERLIN 00001012 002 OF 002 affected by the new flu development. However, DIHK's foreign trade expert Axel Nitschke warned that a lack of hygiene standards could cause a further spread of the virus which could lead to significant consequences for the global economy. "Until all employees of a company have been vaccinated, the company could have come to a stand still stand", he said. He said that companies should take precautionary measures. So far, the influenza pandemic has reportedly had only a slight effect on the tourism industry. POLLARD