CDU AND CSU HOLD THE CARDS IN GERMANY'S COALITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BERLIN 001002

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2019
TAGS: GM PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: CDU AND CSU HOLD THE CARDS IN GERMANY'S COALITION
POKER GAME

Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF STAN OTTO FOR REASONS 1.4
(B) AND (D)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) With politicians returning from their annual summer
vacation to face seven weeks of intense campaigning,
speculation is rife about how Germany's coalition poker game
will play out as the mainstream political parties jockey for
position. Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats
(CDU) and their Bavarian sister party the Christian Social
Union (CSU) hold the best hand, whereas the Social Democratic
Party (SPD) is struggling to stay in the game. Electoral
observers will be watching closely which party or parties can
give the CDU/CSU Union the necessary votes to form a ruling
coalition. In the first instance, the CDU/CSU will want to
form a coalition with its preferred coalition partner, the
Free Democratic Party (FDP). Current polling suggests this
option is very viable. On the other hand, if the CDU/CSU and
FDP are unable to form a coalition, the former may decide to
continue with a Grand Coalition with the SPD -- a choice
which has the virtue of familiarity, but is second-best for
both. The CDU/CSU might also be tempted to explore a
coalition with the Greens in the unlikely event that the
Greens came in ahead of the FDP. Or the CDU/CSU might
consider a coalition with the FDP and Greens ("Jamaica
coalition"). The problem in both cases would be the
substantive policy differences with the Greens on
environmental and nuclear energy issues, making coalition
negotiations extremely difficult. Coalition options for the
SPD outside of a Grand Coalition remain extremely limited if
their numbers don't improve over current polls.


2. (C) Several factors make it difficult to predict which
coalition option will prevail: the effects of the country's
economic malaise, the tendency of approximately 40 percent of
the German electorate to make a last-minute decision about
whom they will support, and of course any game-changing
foreign policy developments or domestic incidents that might
upset the ante. End summary.

CDU/CSU-FDP - GERMANY'S NEXT GOVERNMENT?
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3. (C) When the election results are announced on the
evening of September 27, the CDU/CSU will be looking to the
FDP results to see whether they can form a coalition. Upon
returning from vacation on August 11, Chancellor Merkel
immediately confirmed that the FDP would be an ideal
coalition partner for promoting economic growth and
increasing employment. Current squabbles between CSU
Bavarian Minister-President Horst Seehofer and FDP Chairman
Guido Westerwelle over the latter's reluctance to declare the
CDU/CSU as the FDP's preferred coalition partner, however,
reveal some anxiety in the CDU/CSU camp over the FDP's future
intentions. The FDP will officially name its preferred
coalition partner on September 20 in Potsdam, but it is
highly unlikely that the FDP will choose any party or parties
other than the CDU/CSU. Indeed, in a meeting with the CDA
and POLOFF on June 30, Westerwelle said he was confident the
CDU/CSU and FDP would be able to form a coalition. According
to recent polls, the CDU/CSU and FDP would get between 48-53
percent of the total vote, with a majority of the polls
giving the CDU/CSU-FDP over 50 percent. If the CDU/CSU Union
and FDP can secure the votes necessary to form a coalition,
then the probability is high that these parties will form the
next government, pending the outcome of coalition
negotiations.

CDU/CSU-SPD: OH, NO! NOT ANOTHER GRAND COALITION
-------------- ---


4. (C) If the CDU/CSU-FDP are unable to form a government,
the CDU/CSU would have to weigh the pros and cons of
returning to a Grand Coalition with the SPD or entering
uncharted political coalition waters with the Greens, which
at this stage seems very unlikely. The Grand Coalition has
been a familiar political reality for the last four years.
According to recent polls, if the CDU/CSU gains 35-38 percent
and the SPD gains between 20-24 percent of the vote, this
would be mathematically sufficient for another Grand
Coalition. But all mainstream parties, including the Grand
Coalition members themselves, and the German public seem to
be suffering from Grand Coalition fatigue. Both CDU/CSU and
SPD politicians have repeatedly spoken out against a
continuation of the Grand Coalition, although the SPD --
given its weakened state -- cannot realistically afford to
dismiss this coalition option entirely without jeopardizing
the party's political future. Political observers
consistently predict that if the CDU/CSU-FDP are unable to

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form a coalition, then a Grand Coalition will be a foregone
conclusion.

CDU/CSU-GREENS: SHOULD NOT BE DISMISSED
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5. (C) The CDU/CSU and the Greens -- depending on the
outcome of the elections -- could form a coalition only if
the Greens fare better than the FDP in September. This would
mean that they would have to attract several percent more
voters than their current polling numbers -- very hard to
imagine at this juncture. This type of coalition already
exists in Hamburg at the state level. Recent polls show the
CDU/CSU and the Greens garnering between 46-51 percent of the
vote. According to "Politbarometer", only 25 percent of the
Germans like the idea of a black-green coalition, while 46
percent do not. Despite its feasibility, the CDU party
hierarchy remains united in their opposition to such a
coalition. In June, CDU Secretary-General Ronald Pofalla
dismissed the idea of a coalition with the Greens entirely,
saying their party platforms were not compatible. Greens
Caucus Chief Renate Kuenast told the "Passauer Neue Presse"
that "the Greens would not be having long discussions" with
"a Union that continues to rely on coal power stations and
nuclear energy." On the other hand, Klaus Peter Schoeppner,
CEO of TNS Emnid, wrote in the political magazine "Cicero"
that it was not beyond the realm of possibility, given
current polling realities, that the CDU/CSU-Greens could
overcome their divisions on the number one issue for the
Greens: environment and nuclear energy policy. Given the
political statements made by senior leaders in both parties,
however, this option remains unlikely. Cooperation between
the CDU/CSU and Greens would also complicate the possible
formation of a three party coalition with the SPD and FDP, a
so-called "Jamaica" coalition.

COALITION OPTIONS WITH MINIMAL CHANCES
--------------


6. (U) A "Jamaica" coalition placing the CDU/CSU, Greens,
and the FDP together would be able to obtain a comfortable
majority of 59-66 percent, according to current polls. FDP
Chairman Guido Westerwelle has not ruled out a "Jamaica"
coalition, although the chances of such a coalition are
remote due to substantive policy differences among the
parties. According to Infratest dimap, only 27 percent of
Germans favor a Jamaica coalition, while 69 percent oppose
it. The Greens oppose a Jamaica coalition because of their
entrenched differences with the CDU over the CDU/CSU's
environmental and nuclear energy policies.


7. (U) A "traffic light" (Ampel) coalition would bring the
SPD, FDP and Greens together, keeping the CDU/CSU out of
government -- a point many CDU/CSU politicians have been
making recently when they warn potential FDP and undecided
voters that their vote may ultimately place a "traffic light"
coalition into government. FDP Party Chairman Guido
Westerwelle, in a recent "ZDF Television" interview,
dismissed this coalition option outright, making it highly
unlikely such a coalition would come into existence.

SPD-LEFT-GREENS: IMPOSSIBLE NOW; BUT IN THE FUTURE?
-------------- --------------


8. (C) A SPD-Left-Greens coalition remains very unlikely
since the SPD has categorically ruled out a coalition with
the radical Left Party on a national level. Left Party
Chairman Oskar Lafontaine expressed his frustration about
this decision at his party's most recent convention: "We are
not refusing to cooperate in government. It is the SPD which
made the foolish decision not to cooperate with us and in so
doing threw its own party program in the rubbish bin."
Recent polls suggest that there is no electoral support for
this type of coalition option. However, one political
reporter at "Bild," Hugo Mueller-Vogg, made political
headlines when he outlined how a SPD-Left-Green government
might be formed during the Bundestag's next legislative
period -- if the Grand Coalition collapses -- or potentially
after the next parliamentary elections in 2013.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) Despite early poll predictions leaning towards a
CDU/CSU-FDP coalition government, there are still many
factors that could have an impact on voting patterns. First,
Germany's economy remains precarious and it is uncertain how
future economic developments -- especially in unemployment --
will impact voting behavior. Second, the German voter is
historically fickle before parliamentary elections.
Professor Karl-Rudolf Korte from the NRW School of Governance

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told POLOFF that 40 percent of the German electorate will
remain undecided up until ten days before the parliamentary
elections, a fact the SPD is holding onto with desperation as
they seek to target undecided voters with their campaign
messages. Third, as noted by Director of Election Research
at Infratest dimap Juergen Hofrichter, it is difficult to
predict how potential internal and/or external crises might
impact the voters. Hofrichter, one of Germany's top election
experts, was very coy with POLOFF on his predictions for the
election outcome when he noted: "I would not bet any money on
the winner and losers in the forthcoming elections precisely
because the German voter and his/her intentions do not always
correspond with what they tell polling companies." End
comment.
Bradtke