CDU AND CSU HOLD THE CARDS IN GERMANY'S COALITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BERLIN 001002 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2019 TAGS: GM PGOV PREL SUBJECT: CDU AND CSU HOLD THE CARDS IN GERMANY'S COALITION POKER GAME Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF STAN OTTO FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) With politicians returning from their annual summer vacation to face seven weeks of intense campaigning, speculation is rife about how Germany's coalition poker game will play out as the mainstream political parties jockey for position. Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) hold the best hand, whereas the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is struggling to stay in the game. Electoral observers will be watching closely which party or parties can give the CDU/CSU Union the necessary votes to form a ruling coalition. In the first instance, the CDU/CSU will want to form a coalition with its preferred coalition partner, the Free Democratic Party (FDP). Current polling suggests this option is very viable. On the other hand, if the CDU/CSU and FDP are unable to form a coalition, the former may decide to continue with a Grand Coalition with the SPD -- a choice which has the virtue of familiarity, but is second-best for both. The CDU/CSU might also be tempted to explore a coalition with the Greens in the unlikely event that the Greens came in ahead of the FDP. Or the CDU/CSU might consider a coalition with the FDP and Greens ("Jamaica coalition"). The problem in both cases would be the substantive policy differences with the Greens on environmental and nuclear energy issues, making coalition negotiations extremely difficult. Coalition options for the SPD outside of a Grand Coalition remain extremely limited if their numbers don't improve over current polls. ¶2. (C) Several factors make it difficult to predict which coalition option will prevail: the effects of the country's economic malaise, the tendency of approximately 40 percent of the German electorate to make a last-minute decision about whom they will support, and of course any game-changing foreign policy developments or domestic incidents that might upset the ante. End summary. CDU/CSU-FDP - GERMANY'S NEXT GOVERNMENT? -------------- ¶3. (C) When the election results are announced on the evening of September 27, the CDU/CSU will be looking to the FDP results to see whether they can form a coalition. Upon returning from vacation on August 11, Chancellor Merkel immediately confirmed that the FDP would be an ideal coalition partner for promoting economic growth and increasing employment. Current squabbles between CSU Bavarian Minister-President Horst Seehofer and FDP Chairman Guido Westerwelle over the latter's reluctance to declare the CDU/CSU as the FDP's preferred coalition partner, however, reveal some anxiety in the CDU/CSU camp over the FDP's future intentions. The FDP will officially name its preferred coalition partner on September 20 in Potsdam, but it is highly unlikely that the FDP will choose any party or parties other than the CDU/CSU. Indeed, in a meeting with the CDA and PolOff on June 30, Westerwelle said he was confident the CDU/CSU and FDP would be able to form a coalition. According to recent polls, the CDU/CSU and FDP would get between 48-53 percent of the total vote, with a majority of the polls giving the CDU/CSU-FDP over 50 percent. If the CDU/CSU Union and FDP can secure the votes necessary to form a coalition, then the probability is high that these parties will form the next government, pending the outcome of coalition negotiations. CDU/CSU-SPD: OH, NO! NOT ANOTHER GRAND COALITION -------------- --- ¶4. (C) If the CDU/CSU-FDP are unable to form a government, the CDU/CSU would have to weigh the pros and cons of returning to a Grand Coalition with the SPD or entering uncharted political coalition waters with the Greens, which at this stage seems very unlikely. The Grand Coalition has been a familiar political reality for the last four years. According to recent polls, if the CDU/CSU gains 35-38 percent and the SPD gains between 20-24 percent of the vote, this would be mathematically sufficient for another Grand Coalition. But all mainstream parties, including the Grand Coalition members themselves, and the German public seem to be suffering from Grand Coalition fatigue. Both CDU/CSU and SPD politicians have repeatedly spoken out against a continuation of the Grand Coalition, although the SPD -- given its weakened state -- cannot realistically afford to dismiss this coalition option entirely without jeopardizing the party's political future. Political observers consistently predict that if the CDU/CSU-FDP are unable to BERLIN 00001002 002 OF 003 form a coalition, then a Grand Coalition will be a foregone conclusion. CDU/CSU-GREENS: SHOULD NOT BE DISMISSED -------------- ¶5. (C) The CDU/CSU and the Greens -- depending on the outcome of the elections -- could form a coalition only if the Greens fare better than the FDP in September. This would mean that they would have to attract several percent more voters than their current polling numbers -- very hard to imagine at this juncture. This type of coalition already exists in Hamburg at the state level. Recent polls show the CDU/CSU and the Greens garnering between 46-51 percent of the vote. According to "Politbarometer", only 25 percent of the Germans like the idea of a black-green coalition, while 46 percent do not. Despite its feasibility, the CDU party hierarchy remains united in their opposition to such a coalition. In June, CDU Secretary-General Ronald Pofalla dismissed the idea of a coalition with the Greens entirely, saying their party platforms were not compatible. Greens Caucus Chief Renate Kuenast told the "Passauer Neue Presse" that "the Greens would not be having long discussions" with "a Union that continues to rely on coal power stations and nuclear energy." On the other hand, Klaus Peter Schoeppner, CEO of TNS Emnid, wrote in the political magazine "Cicero" that it was not beyond the realm of possibility, given current polling realities, that the CDU/CSU-Greens could overcome their divisions on the number one issue for the Greens: environment and nuclear energy policy. Given the political statements made by senior leaders in both parties, however, this option remains unlikely. Cooperation between the CDU/CSU and Greens would also complicate the possible formation of a three party coalition with the SPD and FDP, a so-called "Jamaica" coalition. COALITION OPTIONS WITH MINIMAL CHANCES -------------- ¶6. (U) A "Jamaica" coalition placing the CDU/CSU, Greens, and the FDP together would be able to obtain a comfortable majority of 59-66 percent, according to current polls. FDP Chairman Guido Westerwelle has not ruled out a "Jamaica" coalition, although the chances of such a coalition are remote due to substantive policy differences among the parties. According to Infratest dimap, only 27 percent of Germans favor a Jamaica coalition, while 69 percent oppose it. The Greens oppose a Jamaica coalition because of their entrenched differences with the CDU over the CDU/CSU's environmental and nuclear energy policies. ¶7. (U) A "traffic light" (Ampel) coalition would bring the SPD, FDP and Greens together, keeping the CDU/CSU out of government -- a point many CDU/CSU politicians have been making recently when they warn potential FDP and undecided voters that their vote may ultimately place a "traffic light" coalition into government. FDP Party Chairman Guido Westerwelle, in a recent "ZDF Television" interview, dismissed this coalition option outright, making it highly unlikely such a coalition would come into existence. SPD-LEFT-GREENS: IMPOSSIBLE NOW; BUT IN THE FUTURE? -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) A SPD-Left-Greens coalition remains very unlikely since the SPD has categorically ruled out a coalition with the radical Left Party on a national level. Left Party Chairman Oskar Lafontaine expressed his frustration about this decision at his party's most recent convention: "We are not refusing to cooperate in government. It is the SPD which made the foolish decision not to cooperate with us and in so doing threw its own party program in the rubbish bin." Recent polls suggest that there is no electoral support for this type of coalition option. However, one political reporter at "Bild," Hugo Mueller-Vogg, made political headlines when he outlined how a SPD-Left-Green government might be formed during the Bundestag's next legislative period -- if the Grand Coalition collapses -- or potentially after the next parliamentary elections in 2013. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Despite early poll predictions leaning towards a CDU/CSU-FDP coalition government, there are still many factors that could have an impact on voting patterns. First, Germany's economy remains precarious and it is uncertain how future economic developments -- especially in unemployment -- will impact voting behavior. Second, the German voter is historically fickle before parliamentary elections. Professor Karl-Rudolf Korte from the NRW School of Governance BERLIN 00001002 003 OF 003 told PolOff that 40 percent of the German electorate will remain undecided up until ten days before the parliamentary elections, a fact the SPD is holding onto with desperation as they seek to target undecided voters with their campaign messages. Third, as noted by Director of Election Research at Infratest dimap Juergen Hofrichter, it is difficult to predict how potential internal and/or external crises might impact the voters. Hofrichter, one of Germany's top election experts, was very coy with PolOff on his predictions for the election outcome when he noted: "I would not bet any money on the winner and losers in the forthcoming elections precisely because the German voter and his/her intentions do not always correspond with what they tell polling companies." End comment. Bradtke