PREVIEWING BELIZE'S MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS 2009: UDP LIKELY

UNCLAS BELMOPAN 000080


FOR WHA/CEN - CHRISTOPHER ASHE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINS SOCI BH
SUBJECT: PREVIEWING BELIZE'S MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS 2009: UDP LIKELY
TO KEEP ITS POLITICAL MOMENTUM

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Summary
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1. Summary: After a landslide victory in the 2008 general
elections, the United Democratic Party (UDP) is now preparing for
the 2009 municipal elections amidst criticism for lacking a clear
policy agenda and a weakened economy. The new Peoples United
Party(PUP) leadership has declared its determination to distance
itself from the PUP 'old guard', whom most hold responsible for the
mismanagement of the country's finances. However, most expect
little to change during this election on March 4. End summary.

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United Democratic Party (UDP)
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2. The UDP came to power in February 2008 after campaigning its
anti-corruption platform. During its first year in office, however,
it has encountered several snags in implementing its program. The
UDP bundled two proposed constitutional amendments into a single
piece of legislation. One amendment, initially floated as part of
the UDP platform, changes the make-up of the Senate from a rubber
stamp body (controlled by the ruling party) to a body with the
majority of seats designated for the opposition and several social
partners (Council of Churches and others). It will be a real
counter-balance to the power of the executive with a majority in
National Assembly. The second proposed amendment declares that all
minerals (including oil) in Belize are the property of the people
and by extension the government. The terms of this proposed
amendment are being contested in the Supreme Court (the second
highest court in Belize) and a decision is pending. The litigation
over mineral rights has put the amendment on the Senate into limbo
since the two issues were bundled in the legislation. Additionally,
highly publicized internal UDP disputes, allegations of corruption
at the municipal level, and severe flooding in 2008 have not helped
the UDP.


3. At the UDP party conventions candidate slots for mayoral
positions have been hotly contested and there seem to be some
intra-party disputes. We see cabinet ministers publicly supporting
different candidates, creating the appearance of a power struggle at
the ministerial level. In addition, there have been numerous
allegations of financial mismanagement and lack of transparency at
the office of the Belize City Council.

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People's United Party (PUP)
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4. Among Belize's nine municipalities, only one has a PUP mayor --
Punta Gorda. Since the general elections, the PUP has emerged as a
split party. A new party leader, Johnny Briceno, has been working
to transform the party's image to that of a more accountable and
responsible party. However, there remains a substantial divide
between the new regime and the old party leadership in the run up to
election this March 4.


5. Comment: The results of the municipal elections will be only
marginally indicative of the Belize public's assessment of the
performance of the UDP leadership after one year in power.
Historically, the incumbent party usually garners most of the seats
after a landslide general election victory. Additionally,
dissatisfaction with a new government is usually indicated low voter
turnout, rather than a vote for the opposition. We have also noted
this general lack of interest in the municipal elections in recent
conversations with members of the Belizean public.


6. The Vision Inspired by the People (VIP) Party is running again in
Belmopan. Although they received a substantial number of votes in
the last municipal election, their usual tactic of publicizing
problems of the incumbent government and offering the VIP as a third
party alternative has been noticeably less successful. This time
around they have less funding and are not expected to have a
significant impact on this election.


7. The main issues in this election include cost of living, crime,
government finances, and territorial rights. Many of the financial
challenges have carried over from the previous PUP government. The
new PUP leadership is determined to distance itself from the 'old
guard' whom most hold responsible for mismanagement of the country's
finances. However, most expect little to change during this
election on March 4. End Comment.

DIFFILY