SERBIA/ROMANIA: TADIC VISIT SHOWCASES "MODEL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 000325 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/14/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON RO SR SUBJECT: SERBIA/ROMANIA: TADIC VISIT SHOWCASES "MODEL BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP" Classified By: Deborah Mennuti, Political Chief; reasons 1.4 (b, d). ¶1. (U) This cable was drafted jointly with Embassy Bucharest. Summary -------------- ¶2. (C) Serbian President Tadic's recent visit to Bucharest highlighted Serbia's bilateral relationship with Romania as the most positive of Belgrade's relationships with its neighbors. Romania's position against Kosovo recognition * and its plans to file a legal brief on Serbia's ICJ case * have further strengthened a longstanding close relationship between the two countries. Economic cooperation is less apparent and minority issues continue to be a manageable irritant. Belgrade, however, will continue to look to Bucharest as an ally for achieving EU aspirations and to highlight Serbia's efforts at good relations with its neighbors. End Summary. Tadic Visit Highlights Cordial Relationship -------------- ¶3. (SBU) President Boris Tadic's March 27-28 visit to Romania reflected the friendly relationship between the two capitals. In addition to meetings with President Basescu, PM Emil Boc, Parliament Speaker Roberta Anastase, and the Senate VP Mirca Dzoan, Tadic traveled to the port city of Constanta, received an honorary doctorate from the University of Dimitrie Kantemir, opened an exhibition in Bucharest entitled "One Hundred Years of Serbian Paintings," and attended a soccer match. Our Serbian and Romanian interlocutors in Belgrade frequently point out that Serbia and Romania are the only two Balkan countries that have never gone to war with each other, and have consistently nurtured close ties. Serbian MFA officials told us that Serbian President Tadic maintained a close personal friendship with Romanian President Basescu that was developed during the two presidents' terms in office. Bucharest Shoulder-to-Shoulder With Belgrade on Kosovo( -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) The warm ties between Belgrade and Bucharest are in large part due to Bucharest's firm stand against Kosovo recognition. Bucharest was the first capital Tadic visited last February after Kosovo declared independence, and President Basescu on March 27 reaffirmed his longstanding position that Romania would never recognize Kosovo until Serbia itself does. According to the Serbian MFA's desk officer for Romania, Vukasin Todorovic, Tadic received similar assurances from leaders of Romania's Parliament as well. According to Todorovic, Bucharest plans to file an amicus curiae brief before the International Court of Justice supporting Belgrade's case that Kosovo violated international law by issuing its unilateral declaration of independence in February 2008. Romania's Director General for Legal Affairs Cosmin Dinescu described for Embassy Bucharest a more nuanced view of the ICJ brief. He said the brief would avoid specific reference to Kosovo, but rather would focus on the relationship of equal rights and the self-determination of peoples to the standard of territorial integrity of states as it has evolved narrowly within the European (and particularly the EU) context. UNSCR 1244 will also be prominently mentioned. Dinescu said Romania would challenge the concept of a special category of collective rights for minorities. Dinescu also said Romania hopes to present a "constructive" brief that would not exacerbate differences in assigning fault. ...And EU Accession, Regional Cooperation -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Bucharest's efforts to promote Serbia's EU membership aspirations further strengthen bilateral ties. Tadic on March 27 expressed appreciation for Bucharest's support for Serbia,s efforts to join the Schengen &White List8 and to implement the Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU. Romanian Embassy political officer Bogdan Tebrean told us on December 31 that Bucharest was actively seeking to "share Romania's experience" to guide Belgrade toward EU and NATO membership. Todorovic noted that Romania, for example, offered technical assistance for harmonizing legislation and general education about the EU for Serbia,s public. ¶6. (SBU) Romania has also sought to include Serbia in BELGRADE 00000325 002 OF 003 projects aimed at promoting regional cooperation. During Tadic's visit to Bucharest, Basescu invited him to join Bucharest and Vienna in participating in an EU Commission- funded project to connect the Rhine, Maine, and Danube rivers. Serbia already participates in a joint initiative with Hungary and Romania to respond to flooding along the Danube, and takes part in joint border exercises with Romanian and Bulgarian police forces. Serbian MFA and Romanian Embassy officials laud trilateral cooperation in the Danube region as evidence of successful regional coordination between Serbia and EU members Romania and Hungary. Limited Economic Cooperation -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Tadic's visit to the port of Constanta on March 28 provided an occasion to demonstrate both countries' intentions to broaden economic cooperation. Basescu in 2006 suggested to Tadic expanding use of the port of Constanta * the largest container port on the Black Sea * for Serbian companies. Calling Constanta "our port," Tadic joined Basescu in calling for investors to support port development as well as the EU's Corridor 7 project that would connect the port to Serbia. Both sides also discussed developing energy infrastructure that would better connect the two countries. ¶8. (SBU) At present, however, the economic connections between the two countries are relatively meager. The share of total foreign trade of Serbia with Romania increased from approximately two percent in 2004 to three percent in 2008, and Serbia in 2008 experienced a roughly $234 million trade deficit with Romania. FDI flows between Serbia and Romania from 2000-2007 constituted less than one percent of Serbia's total FDI, according to the National Bank of Serbia. However, recent data shows some increase in bilateral investment. Between January and November 2008, Romania was ranked Serbia's 16th largest FDI partner with FDI inflows to Serbia of $25 million and outflows to Romania of $4.3 million. A joint Serbian-Romanian economic cooperation commission last met in December 2008, and investment promotion working groups do not meet regularly because of the low volume of cross-border trade and investment, according to Serbian MFA officials. Minority, Church Issues an Irritant -------------- ¶9. (C) Tadic said on March 28 that he would support the rights of the Romanian minority in Serbia, addressing an issue that both sides consider to be a sticking point in the bilateral relationship. Tebrean told us that Romania sought equal treatment for its 35,000 nationals concentrated in Serbia's Timok Valley along the lines of rights Romania recognized among Serbian nationals in Romania, particularly with regard to protection for minority languages and schools. However, Serbia was not ready to discuss the problem in depth, Tebrean said, and Bucharest was not inclined to push the issue with Belgrade when there were more important issues to cover. Todorovic told us that the law on minorities pending before Parliament would bring Serbia's treatment of minorities to European standards and assuage Romanian concerns. Both sides agreed that the Vlachs, who also speak Romanian, should not be entitled to constitutional protection as a minority group in Serbia. ¶10. (C) Basescu said that Tadic had promised to "resolve the situation" involving the ongoing dispute between the Serbian and Romanian Orthodox churches. The most recent manifestation of the conflict occurred in January when the Serbian town of Negotin sought to raze the foundations of the Romanian church St. Niceta de Remesiana. The Serbian MFA intervened at the behest of the Romanian Patriarchate to stop the planned demolition. Todorovic said that the Serbian government would continue to approach the problem as a matter for the churches to resolve but that Tadic would likely intervene to pressure both sides to come to an agreement in April prior to the inter-church dialogue conference. The View from Bucharest -------------- ¶11. (C) Romania was very pleased with Tadic's visit, but it also underscored some frustrations with the pace of Serbia,s integration into European and Euro-Atlantic institutions. As MFA Director for Western Balkans and Regional Cooperation Ene Alexandru put it, Belgrade was key to building regional stability, but there was not a lot to show for it. In the meeting with Basescu, Tadic said he needed to get more BELGRADE 00000325 003 OF 003 results from the European track in light of Russian moves in the region. Alexandru noted that Moscow's policies in Serbia appear designed to hurt Tadic's pro-Europe credibility. He said more effort was needed to get Brussels to focus closer attention on providing more tangible EU benefits to Serbia. Alexandru observed that the Duma's declaration on Kosovo ("no one takes that seriously!"),the Russian visa liberalization regime, and the Gazprom deal on South Stream (which they claim Tadic described as "non-binding" when expressing his frustration with exclusion from Nabucco discussions),all made Russia appear more pro-Serb than is actually the case. ¶12. (C) Basescu promised that Romania would continue to advocate for EU visa liberalization for Serbia as a tangible deliverable to help counter Moscow's efforts to offer itself as the alternative to EU integration. Basescu and Tadic also discussed promoting "industrial districts" along the border to increase commercial and joint production incentives for SMEs and local chambers of commerce. Romania and Italy would be working in partnership to increase contact with Serbia, Alexandru noted. Romania also supports Tadic's request for an EU fact-finding mission to examine Serbia's cooperation with The Hague Tribunal. Basescu told Tadic that he must seek out all available mechanisms to improve Serbia's relations with the EU and NATO; concern over how the global financial crisis could impact Belgrade runs high in Romania. Comment -------------- ¶13. (C) Tadic's visit to Bucharest succeeded in again underscoring the strong bilateral relationship with Romania which the Serbian president said he hopes will be "an example to the region and other parts of the world." Though the unresolved minority and church issues could conceivably be used to inflame political sentiments against both governments, manageable as they are no one would receive any political benefit from doing so. Instead, we expect the bilateral relationship to remain among the most firm in the region. End Comment. MUNTER