SERBIA: RUSSIANS STIR THE POT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000246 DEPT FOR EUR/SCE (P. PETERSON) SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL RU KV SR SUBJECT: SERBIA: RUSSIANS STIR THE POT REF: 08 BELGRADE 1333 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Russia's ambassador to Serbia Aleksandr Konuzin has recently taken a much more aggressive approach to Kosovo by advocating partition during recent speeches and interviews and condemning the 1999 NATO bombardment. The takeover of Serbia's national oil industry by Russian giant Gazprom has significantly increased Russia's physical presence in Serbia. Despite the fact that NIS deal is routinely reported as negative for Serbia in the local press, with news stories focusing on harsh management policies and lost revenue for the government, Russia nevertheless continues to play the Kosovo card to situate itself as Serbia's chief protector on the international stage. End Summary. Aggressive Public Statements -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Against the backdrop of the 10th anniversary of the NATO bombardment, Russian Ambassador Aleksandr Konuzin has given a series of public presentations in Belgrade on Russian foreign policy, striking a more assertive tone than usual. Konuzin also published an op-ed in the March 19 edition of weekly newsmagazine "NIN" timed to coincide with the tenth anniversary of the NATO intervention in Kosovo. He criticized UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon for the reconfiguration of the international civil presence in Kosovo and for not implementing the Six Point plan. Konuzin described Kosovo as "a mafia pseudo-state, in which corruption rules, while organized crime as well as smuggling of arms and narcotics make up 1/3 of the GDP." He claimed that Serbia was today the victim of "political bombing," and ended with a rousing message of support: "Serbs, do not give up! As Russian Grand Duke Saint Aleksandr Nevskiy said, God is not in power but in justice. Your mission is just. You are not alone." Partition of Kosovo? -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The same edition of NIN carried an interview with former Russian PM Yevgeniy Primakov, who said that in his opinion the situation could not be returned to the one before Kosovo proclaimed independence. "I think that now, problems which could be resolved, should be resolved. One of them is maybe to give the north of Kosovo to the Serbs. Secondly, I believe that the problems in Bosnia could be resolved now...as far as I know, Republika Srpska has not officially requested integration with Serbia. But who knows, everything is possible," said Primakov. A Bigger Russian Footprint -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Following Gazprom's January 1 takeover of the Serbian national oil company NIS (reftel),Russia's footprint in Serbia is significant. Our contacts from NIS report that the new Russian management of the company immediately initiated a series of dramatic changes, including reshuffling staff and requiring state-owned enterprises to pay their overdue bills. Communication between the new Russian managers and long-time NIS employees, who expect firings to come soon, are reportedly poor due to the lack of a common language. Rumors abound about Russian plans and intentions; key NIS customers and service providers such as chemical firm HIP and oil transport firm Transnafta told the Ambassador on March 19 that the firms are in the dark about NIS plans and are under pressure to make payments on old debts (septel). ¶5. (SBU) Gazprom's management style is already attracting significant public attention, not much of it positive. On March 17, Belgrade daily "Politika" ran a front-page story reporting that Serbia had "killed the goose that laid the golden egg" when it sold its controlling interest in NIS to Gazprom. Instead of receiving 50% of NIS's dividends, the government will in the future receive a maximum of 15%, and then only if the company declares a profit. According to "Politika," the new Russian management had revised NIS's 2008 financial statement to show a loss rather than a profit, meaning the Serbian government will not receive the $35 million payout it expected, nor any corporate income tax. Comment -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The Russians appear to be basking in their "Serbia's Savior" role, using the tenth anniversary of the NATO intervention in Kosovo as an opportunity to raise their public profile in Serbia and cast the U.S. and other Western partners in a negative light. BELGRADE 00000246 002 OF 002 Primakov's reference to the partition of Kosovo serves to revive "Greater Serbia" aspirations to keep all Serbs in Serbia, and also to stir up tensions in the region. This campaign resembles classic Soviet agitprop, vilifying the United States, while casting Russia as the fount of justice and international order. Stirring up Balkan unrest is a dangerous game, but current Russian behavior demonstrates that it's the game they clearly want to play. End Comment. MUNTER